Bob Blog 25 Dec 2016

WEATHERGRAM
YOTREPS
Compiled Sun 25 December 2016
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.

Here's to a peaceful and joyful Christmas and end of the year to you all.
However, there is some activity in the South Pacific and around Australia this
week so there are a few potential tropical depressions that may be worth
avoiding.
There are five of them tonight and they can be seen on the windyty.com website.

The Tropics
TC NOCK TEN is moving west across the Philippines on Boxing day as a severe
tropical cyclone, and may end up near Vietnam coast at turn of the year. It's
track can be seen at ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/

Of all those Lows in the Australia/South Pacific area, the one that at present
has the most grunt is FORMER TC Yvette, now a monsoonal depression, bringing its
rain to South Australia. It's track may be seen at
www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/02S_gefs_latest.png

Rain maps at trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/big_global_accumlation.gif show
that activity is on the decrease around Fiji, and on the increase over
Philippines, Australia, and Southern Cooks. Also in the Indian Ocean and along
the Intertropical Convergence Zone.

WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
SPCZ is drifting south this wee,k and leaving a few smaller convergece zones
further north, Expect a tropcial Low over Southern cooks to peal around
Wednesday UTC, and another near Vanuatu by New year's weekend. Lows may come
and go around Australia all week.
Tropical accumulated rainfall for next week may be seen at windyty.com

Subtropical ridge (STR)
The HIGH in the Tasman Sea tonight is expected to remain slow-moving and drift
north to 30S and linger there until early next week
Next High is weaker and should appear over and east of Tasmania early in the
New Year.

Tasman Sea/NZ Area troughs.
A disturbed SW flow is likely over northern NZ this week. Next trough of
consequence should start arriving over southern NZ on wed, central NZ on Friday
and northern NZ over the New year weekend.
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