tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20034731104127895512024-03-17T03:11:10.349-07:00WEATHERGRAMBob McDavitt's ideas for sailing weather around the South pacificBob McDavitthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10943943384152619237noreply@blogger.comBlogger867125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2003473110412789551.post-26974130940973417492024-03-17T03:10:00.001-07:002024-03-17T03:10:38.992-07:00Bob blog 17 March Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
<br>Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
<br>from the patterned world.
<br>Compiled Sunday 17 March 2024
<br>
<br>EL NINO fading to NEUTRAL,
<br>
<br>In mid-March the equatorial current was going westwards as if on
<br>steroids.
<br>
<br>As the surface: warm water is being pushed physically by an increasing
<br>wind from the east Pacific along the equator. This happens across the
<br>entire equatorial Pacific and piles up over the western Pacific.
<br>There, to flatten out this buildup, water beneath it at around 50 to
<br>150m is pushed outwards at over 2kt, creating an east-going current
<br>called the Pacific Equatorial Undercurrent or EUC which starts in
<br>Indonesia.
<br>
<br>When this current hits the barrier offered by the Galapagos, most of
<br>it diverts around this obstacle, but some of it diverts upwards to
<br>replace the water that has been taken west-wards. This UPWELLING,
<br>being cooler and full of nutrients, provides the rich animal and bird
<br>life of the Galapagos with a feast of food.
<br>
<br>The behaviour of the EUC is tied up with the El Nino and La Nina
<br>patterns, but because it is hard to observe, little is known what
<br>changes its 'mood".
<br>
<br>We do know a lot now about how the tropics influence New Zealand
<br>weather. Ove the recent summer ELNINO was in the driving seat,
<br>producing more westerly winds than normal over NZ - filling the hydro
<br>lakes with reasonable rain, but producing dry conditions east of the
<br>Alps, and now a drought in Marlborough. During autumn EL NINO will be
<br>replaced by what we call "NEUTRAL" conditions. The weather will swing
<br>from one pattern to another, allowing variety as each pattern gets to
<br>"play" for a short time. I call this "Weather Jazz"
<br>(<a href="http://youtube.com/watch?v=dlee09qmnv4">youtube.com/watch?v=dlee09qmnv4</a>)
<br>
<br>TUVALU is slowly sinking
<br>The spring tide in February is always higher than other months because
<br>of the season. This year, with the warmer than normal seas in the
<br>ocean, the February spring tide brought flooding to Funafuti's main
<br>road. The newly elected Government have a hard time on their hands
<br>with just a few decades left to shift the whole population somewhere
<br>else.
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>TROPICS
<br>Tropical Storm Filipo brought much needed rainfall to southern
<br>Mozambique after forming over the Mozambique Channel. Cyclone Meagan,
<br>named yesterday, is heading west almost towards Darwin. Tropical
<br>depression Eighteen is lurking off NW Australia and also travelling
<br>westwards.
<br>
<br>The MJO pattern is now active over Northern Australia and moving into
<br>the Pacific, increasing the risk of cyclone formation on the Coral sea
<br>over the coming week.
<br>
<br>WEATHER ZONES
<br>The South Pacific Convergence zone is very active this week across the
<br>Coral Sea and Vanuatu to Fiji and then east-southeastwards to the
<br>Austral Islands.
<br>
<br>Tropical Low L1 now west of Vanuatu is expected to slowly travel SE
<br>over southern parts of Fiji later this weekend. Avoid.
<br>
<br>HIGHS and LOWS
<br>
<br>LOW L2 south of Niue is expected to travel slowly southeast.
<br>
<br>Low L3 just east of Chathams tonight is expected to go northeast and
<br>deepen in the next few days, then turn east and then southeast
<br>following L1. Avoid.
<br>
<br>HIGH H1 in the Tasman Sea is expected and the North Island on Friday,
<br>followed by a northerly flow ahead of L4 which should reach mainly the
<br>North Island on Friday.
<br>
<br>Panama to Marquesas:
<br>
<br>The northerly winds in Panama gulf are becoming less reliable as the
<br>equinox approaches.
<br>
<br>Avoid departing between 21 and 29 March.
<br>
<br>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
<br>If you would like more details about your voyage, then check
<br><a href="http://metbob.com">metbob.com</a> to see what I offer.
<br>Or Facebook at /<a href="http://www.facebook.com/metbobnz/">www.facebook.com/metbobnz/</a>
<br>Weathergram with graphics is at <a href="http://metbob.wordpress.com">metbob.wordpress.com</a>
<br>(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
<br>Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
<br><a href="http://weathergram.blogspot.co.nz">weathergram.blogspot.co.nz</a>.
<br>Contact is <a href="mailto:bob@metbob.com">bob@metbob.com</a> or text 64277762212.
<br>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Bob McDavitthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10943943384152619237noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2003473110412789551.post-49229648213204247132024-03-10T03:24:00.000-07:002024-03-10T03:25:22.741-07:00Bob blog 10 March Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
<br>Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
<br>from the patterned world.
<br>Compiled Sunday 10 March 2024
<br>
<br>Brace for a few weeks of extra convective energy (bubbly blue) in the
<br>South Pacific as the MJO moves across the Pacific.
<br>See <a href="http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/forca.shtml">www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/forca.shtml</a>
<br>
<br>ALSO: Between Galapagos and Marquesas, that "mirror convergence
<br>zones"" which I mentioned before have now formed :
<br>
<br>TROPICS
<br>There are no named storms tonight. But there is potential for cyclonic
<br>formation in the zone between northern Australia and Fiji during the
<br>coming eek.
<br>
<br>WEATHER ZONES
<br>The South Pacific Convergence zone is very active this week across the
<br>Coral Sea and Vanuatu to Fiji and then east-south-eastwards to the
<br>Austral Islands.
<br>Tropical Low L3 now over Vanuatu is expected to travel southeast
<br>across Fiji on Tuesday and Tonga on Wed/Thursday. Avoid.
<br>Another Low L4 may form near New Caledonia from Wednesday. Avoid.
<br>
<br>HIGHS and LOWS
<br>HIGH H1 is lingering in the north Tasman Sea
<br>Low L1, well to the east of NZ, is expected to linger south of Tahiti
<br>this week.
<br>Low L2 and associated trough is expected to cross the southern Tasman
<br>Sea this week and then NZ on Friday. Avoid.
<br>
<br>Panama to Marquesas:
<br>The northerly winds in Panama gulf are expected to extend as far as
<br>5North this week.
<br>Monday or Tuesday departures are looking best of the week.
<br>
<br>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
<br>If you would like more details about your voyage, then check
<br><a href="http://metbob.com">metbob.com</a> to see what I offer.
<br>Or Facebook at /<a href="http://www.facebook.com/metbobnz/">www.facebook.com/metbobnz/</a>
<br>Weathergram with graphics is at <a href="http://metbob.wordpress.com">metbob.wordpress.com</a>
<br>(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
<br>Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
<br><a href="http://weathergram.blogspot.co.nz">weathergram.blogspot.co.nz</a>.
<br>Contact is <a href="mailto:bob@metbob.com">bob@metbob.com</a> or text 64277762212.
<br>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Bob McDavitthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10943943384152619237noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2003473110412789551.post-10528487609459807032024-03-03T03:30:00.001-08:002024-03-03T03:30:53.637-08:00Bob Blog 3 March Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
<br>
<br>Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
<br>from the patterned world.
<br>Compiled Sunday 3 March 2024
<br>
<br>A review of last month's weather
<br>Here is a link to a YouTube clip giving an animated loop of the
<br>isobars and streamlines in the South Pacific for the last month at
<br><a href="http://youtu.be/ufI3KuZYp3w">youtu.be/ufI3KuZYp3w</a>
<br>
<br>During February we had an MJO passage for the first few weeks,
<br>activating the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) producing 4
<br>tropical depressions of interest and two cyclones NAT and OSAI. These
<br>systems where so close together that they kept feeding off each other
<br>and none was allowed to blossom beyond a brief storm.
<br>
<br>An active SPCZ meant an active Hadley cell and thus an intense
<br>subtropical ridge which helped to keep tropical systems away from NZ
<br>latitude. However, it was an El Nino month and that allowed several
<br>fronts from the Southern Ocean to move onto NZ and bring bursts of
<br>large swells into the Tasman Sea as far north as New Caledonia.
<br>
<br>The SST pattern has slightly relaxed since last month.
<br>
<br>Average isobars for past month : During February the subtropical
<br>ridges in both hemispheres were well marked.
<br>
<br>The anomaly pattern for February shows that the trough area that was
<br>over NZ in January has shifted to stretch from the SPCZ to the eastern
<br>part of the South Pacific. The subtropical ridge has increased by over
<br>5hPa since January.
<br>
<br>TROPICS
<br>There are no named storms tonight. During the past week LINCOLN
<br>brought generous amounts of rain to the parched lands over NW
<br>Australia
<br>
<br>WEATHER ZONES
<br>The South Pacific Convergence zone is rebuilding in the Coral Sea.
<br>A passing front is expected to cross New Caledonia on Monday. Another
<br>may linger to southeast of Tahiti.
<br>
<br>HIGHS and LOWS
<br>HIGH H1 is lingering well to south of Tahiti .
<br>Low L1 is tonight a deep low 960hPa near 55S and expected to travel
<br>quickly northeast to be east of Chatham Island by midweek. Its
<br>associated thundery fronts should cross NZ on Monday, and then a burst
<br>of large SW swells in the Tasman Sea mainly on Tuesday. Avoid.
<br>HIGH H2 is expected to move into the Tasman se by Wednesday then stop
<br>and fade.
<br>Another low L2 and associated fronts are expected to travel northeast
<br>onto NZ area on Thursday and Friday.
<br>
<br>Panama to Marquesas:
<br>The northerly winds in Panama gulf are expected to extend as far as
<br>5North this week.
<br>
<br>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
<br>If you would like more details about your voyage, then check
<br><a href="http://metbob.com">metbob.com</a> to see what I offer.
<br>Or Facebook at /<a href="http://www.facebook.com/metbobnz/">www.facebook.com/metbobnz/</a>
<br>Weathergram with graphics is at <a href="http://metbob.wordpress.com">metbob.wordpress.com</a>
<br>(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
<br>Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
<br><a href="http://weathergram.blogspot.co.nz">weathergram.blogspot.co.nz</a>.
<br>Contact is <a href="mailto:bob@metbob.com">bob@metbob.com</a> or text 64277762212.
<br>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Bob McDavitthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10943943384152619237noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2003473110412789551.post-57048915306940541912024-02-25T03:02:00.000-08:002024-02-25T03:03:01.491-08:00Bob Blog Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
<br>Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
<br>from the patterned world.
<br>Compiled Sunday 25 February 2024
<br>
<br>Panama to Marquesas -seasonal challenges
<br>Normally the International Convergence zone ITCZ meanders across the
<br>Pacific Ocean in a latitude band between 10 and 2 degrees north of the
<br>equator.
<br>An interesting "mirror" of the ITCZ forms in the eastern Pacific at
<br>this time of the year:
<br>This is triggered by the overhead sun. During late February and early
<br>March, the latitude of the overhead sun shifts slowly northwards from
<br>11S (20Feb) towards the equator (21 Mar/equinox) and then Panama (10
<br>April) (see table of solar declination)
<br>
<br>This triggers a convergence zone to southwest of the Galapagos which
<br>lingers there maybe until April, then disappears until the following
<br>year. I call this the mirror convergence zone as it seems to somehow
<br>mirror what is happening in the ITCZ to the north. That could be due
<br>to the way the atmospheric currents turnover with zones of two
<br>castling clouds sharing the same moat of sinking air.
<br>
<br>This will become one of the challenges for vessels sailing between
<br>Panama and Marquesas. Another challenge is that as the season changes
<br>the southerly winds in the southern hemisphere will shift north, and
<br>NE winds in the Panama gulf will gradually fade by early April when
<br>the overhead sun gets north of Panama. The swells between Panama and
<br>Galapagos become a confused amalgam but with an increasing SW
<br>component.
<br>
<br>One feature that is useful for sailors entering the Pacific from
<br>Panama is the sea surface current.
<br>I know we still have an EL NINO episode, but this is fading. EL NINO
<br>is associated with a weaking of the equatorial west-going current, but
<br>at present this current is looking very healthy. These currents are
<br>taking the warmer-than-normal sea surface that EL NINO built up near
<br>Galapagos out into the rest of the Pacific.
<br>
<br>TROPICS
<br>
<br>l Cyclone Potential
<br>
<br>Northwestern Australia was drenched by slowly moving Tropical Storm
<br>Lincoln. The storm strengthened after moving out to sea again, and
<br>then made landfall on the far northwest coast. Tropical Storm Eleanor
<br>looped around the Indian Ocean islands of Mauritius and Réunion. There
<br>is still a potential for development over Vanuatu but this is
<br>decreasing.
<br>
<br>WEATHER ZONES
<br>The South Pacific Convergence zone remains well established from
<br>Vanuatu to Low L3 which is expected to travel off to the southeast.
<br>There is another convergence zone over Northern Cooks, and tropical
<br>low L2 south of Southern Cooks that should linger until mid-week then
<br>fade.
<br>There is also a convergence zone lingering south of Tahiti.
<br>
<br>HIGHS and LOWS
<br>HIGH H1 continues to linger well east of NZ.
<br>Low L3 formed northwest of Auckland today, disrupting an Australian
<br>/NZ cricket game. It is expected to deepen further as it moves
<br>southeast, crossing Chathams mid-week. It should leave a southerly
<br>flow over NZ until Wednesday.
<br>HIGH H2 in Australia Bight should cross Tasmania on Monday and then
<br>move northeast across the Tasman Sea reaching 30S to north of NZ by
<br>Friday, followed by a trough over NZ this weekend.
<br>
<br>Panama to Marquesas: the Northerly winds in the gulf should last all
<br>week. Scattered squalls between 5N and 2N.
<br>
<br>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
<br>If you would like more details about your voyage, then check
<br><a href="http://metbob.com">metbob.com</a> to see what I offer.
<br>Or Facebook at /<a href="http://www.facebook.com/metbobnz/">www.facebook.com/metbobnz/</a>
<br>Weathergram with graphics is at <a href="http://metbob.wordpress.com">metbob.wordpress.com</a>
<br>(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
<br>Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
<br><a href="http://weathergram.blogspot.co.nz">weathergram.blogspot.co.nz</a>.
<br>Contact is <a href="mailto:bob@metbob.com">bob@metbob.com</a> or text 64277762212.
<br>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Bob McDavitthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10943943384152619237noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2003473110412789551.post-5161698911012471092024-02-18T03:45:00.001-08:002024-02-18T03:45:55.655-08:00Bobgram 18 FebBob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
<br>Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
<br>from the patterned world.
<br>Compiled Sunday 18 February 2024
<br>
<br>El Nino is expected to weaken this autumn
<br>
<br>We are having an El Nino weather pattern. It is the name given to the
<br>period when sea surface temperatures over the eastern equatorial
<br>Pacific are above normal. This pattern is expected to weaken during
<br>our autumn as shown by The Bureau of Meteorology, Australia. with the
<br>trends in Sea temperature made by several computer models.
<br>
<br>
<br>The next image in my illustrated edition at <a href="http://metbob.com">metbob.com</a> shows the daily
<br>averaged isobars over the NZ area for the main part of summer
<br>(longitudes 160E to 180 and latitudes 20S to 50S from Dec 1st to Feb
<br>15th). The passing HIGHS are regular around once a week but for late
<br>January and early February South of the Highs there are regular
<br>passing fronts and lows crossing the Southern Ocean bringing rain to
<br>the southwest of NZ and hot dry northwest winds to places east of the
<br>main ranges.
<br>
<br>
<br>As we move out of El Nino during autumn there is likely to be a period
<br>where the weather will swing from one pattern to another, allowing
<br>variety as each pattern gets to "play" for a short time. I call this
<br>"weather Jazz" and at <a href="http://metbob.com">metbob.com</a> is what I got when I asked AI to draw
<br>that.
<br>
<br>
<br>TROPICS
<br>
<br>An unnamed, short-lived and minimal tropical storm drenched central
<br>parts of the Vanuatu archipelago before dissipating near Fiji. Another
<br>tropical depression recently drenched the Sothern Coos and is now
<br>moving off to the southeast. LINCOLN moved from Gulf of Carpinteria to
<br>inland Australia, And GYOUNGOU is in the mid Indian Ocean.
<br>
<br>WEATHER ZONES
<br>
<br>The South Pacific Convergence zone remains strong, active, squally and
<br>has a few tropical depressions, but there is too much wind shear aloft
<br>to allow cyclones to form.
<br>
<br>L1 near Samoa is expected to start moving to the southeast across Niue
<br>area and the Southern Cooks after Wednesday.
<br>
<br>L2 has been hovering to west of Fiji for a few days and will do so
<br>until around Wednesday then weaken.
<br>
<br>HIGHS and LOWS
<br>
<br>HIGH H1 east of NZ should weaken as it travels further east.
<br>
<br>Front attached to L3 is expected to quickly cross NZ on Monday.
<br>
<br>H2 is expected to cross the Tasmanian area tonight/ then the central
<br>Tasman Sea on Monday/Tuesday
<br>and then central NZ on Wednesday and Thursday with a ridge remaining
<br>in the far north as the High travels off further east.
<br>
<br>After H2 a frontal trough is expected to reach the South Island by
<br>Saturday and cross the North Island on Sunday25 Feb.
<br>
<br>Panama to Marquesas: the Northerly winds in the gulf should last all
<br>week. Scattered squalls to 2S.
<br>
<br>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
<br>If you would like more details about your voyage, then check
<br><a href="http://metbob.com">metbob.com</a> to see what I offer.
<br>Or Facebook at /<a href="http://www.facebook.com/metbobnz/">www.facebook.com/metbobnz/</a>
<br>Weathergram with graphics is at <a href="http://metbob.wordpress.com">metbob.wordpress.com</a>
<br>(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
<br>Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
<br><a href="http://weathergram.blogspot.co.nz">weathergram.blogspot.co.nz</a>.
<br>Contact is <a href="mailto:bob@metbob.com">bob@metbob.com</a> or text 64277762212.
<br>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Bob McDavitthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10943943384152619237noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2003473110412789551.post-48648638926233383032024-02-11T02:45:00.001-08:002024-02-11T02:45:48.931-08:00Bob BlogBob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
<br>
<br>Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.
<br>
<br>Compiled Sunday 11 February 2024
<br>
<br>SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
<br>Occasional in summer we get today's wonderful pattern when the MJO takes the Monsoonal trough out from Australia and into the central Pacific:
<br>During an El Nino period this helps feed the Hadley and Walker circulations to intensify the Subtropical ridges
<br>
<br>I often mention how we can work out the rhythm of weather in the South Pacific by watching the Subtropical ridge STR Recently I have encountered a paper from the boffins at CSIRO in Tasmania who are watching the STR as a way to calculate likely rainfall trends in SE Aus. They have introduced parameters to measure the STR along their local longitude near 150E STR-I for Intensity (hPa) and STR-P for position (Latitude).
<br><a href="http://www.cawcr.gov.au/projects/vicci/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Grose2.pdf">www.cawcr.gov.au/projects/vicci/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Grose2.pdf</a>
<br>Their investigations show that the STR is usually at its southern -most latitude of 38S in February with an average isobar of 1015. Their modelling shows that in the next few decades it is expected to remain close to this positional cycle (with a nudge poleward) but increase its intensity.... Thereby, as a rule of thumb, reducing the rainfall and increasing the surrounding winds.
<br>
<br>
<br>TROPICS
<br>As expected, it has been a busy week in the South Pacific
<br>Cyclone Nat skirted parts of French Polynesia after forming to the east of American Samoa.
<br>Tropical Storm Osai also formed near Samoa but drifted southeast toward the Cook Islands and unwound.
<br>The Tropical depression now S of Fiji (12P/05F) may blossom into cyclone if it shifts to Samoa
<br>but then enters an area of strong winds aloft that will likely help it unravel.
<br>The Radiosonde from Nadi airport (as seen on Windy) shows these strong winds:
<br>This vertical cross section of the atmosphere (done by good olde weather balloon)
<br> shows very warm moist and unstable air in the dangerous Quadrant of that Low.
<br>
<br>WEATHER ZONES
<br>The South Pacific Convergence zone is strong, active, squally and still breeding tropical depressions,
<br>but there may be too much wind shear aloft to allow cyclones to form. L1 southeast of Tahiti is moving off.
<br>L2 near Fiji is the main feature to watch and may still blossom into a cyclone near Samoa mid-week.
<br>
<br>HIGHS and LOWS
<br>East of NZ the STR reigns, with a squash zone of enhanced easterlies near 30S.
<br>Over NZ, a cool dying southerly flow on Monday
<br> then a passing HIGH Tuesday to Thursday,
<br> followed by a fading front reaching Southland late Thursday
<br> and Chatham Islands on Saturday.
<br>
<br>Panama to Marquesas: the Northerly winds in the gulf may fade on Tuesday and again this weekend.
<br>Avoid departing then.
<br>
<br>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
<br>If you would like more details about your voyage, then check <a href="http://metbob.com">metbob.com</a> to see what I offer.
<br>Or Facebook at /<a href="http://www.facebook.com/metbobnz/">www.facebook.com/metbobnz/</a>
<br>Weathergram with graphics is at <a href="http://metbob.wordpress.com">metbob.wordpress.com</a> (subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
<br>Weathergram archive (with translator) is at <a href="http://weathergram.blogspot.co.nz">weathergram.blogspot.co.nz</a>.
<br>Contact is <a href="mailto:bob@metbob.com">bob@metbob.com</a> or text 64277762212.
<br>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Bob McDavitthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10943943384152619237noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2003473110412789551.post-9076821358212037482024-02-04T03:50:00.001-08:002024-02-04T03:50:39.945-08:00Bob Blog 4 Feb Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
<br>Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
<br>patterned world.
<br>Compiled Sunday 4 February 2024
<br>
<br>A review of last month's weather
<br>Here is a link to a YouTube clip giving an animated loop of the isobars and
<br>streamlines in the South Pacific for the last month at <a href="http://youtu.be/BeFD1a7Hhu4">youtu.be/BeFD1a7Hhu4</a>
<br>
<br>During late January an MJO started to move across northern Australia and
<br>triggered TC KIRILLY which moved onto Queensland and turned into a wet
<br>depression, In early February (late last week) KIRILLY rejuvenated back into
<br>a cyclone thanks probably to the warm rainwater flooding out to gulf of
<br>Carpentaria. It is now a rain depression crossing central Australia.
<br>
<br>Sea Surface temperature anomalies from <a href="http://psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.shtml">psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.shtml</a>
<br>There is now a stretch of warner than normal sea from Queensland to the
<br>dateline and to the east of NZ. This may well herald a cyclone path over
<br>next few weeks.
<br>
<br>Average isobars for past month (below)
<br>As far as the monthly averaged weather map is concerned, there has NOT been
<br>much change during February.
<br>The Siberian HIGH has expanded and intensified. In the Southern Hemisphere,
<br>the subtropical ridge has weakened SW of Australia and over NZ .
<br>
<br>The South Tasman Sea turned into a low breeding area during February. Apart
<br>from that there wasn't much change around the globe.
<br>The 1010 isobar has shifted south across Australia and New Caledonia and
<br>northwards onto Tasmania and southern NZ .
<br>
<br>TROPICS
<br>KIRILLY reformed in Gulf of Carpentaria and moved into inland Australia and
<br>is now a wet monsoonal low. There is a tropical depression in the Coral Sea
<br>and it may deepen and move onto New Caledonia mid-eek.
<br>
<br>WEATHER ZONES
<br>The South Pacific Convergence zone is strong and lingers on north side of a
<br>stretched-out trough linking a well-formed LOW L1 in the Coral Sea with a
<br>low lingering between Niue and Aitutaki L2 and another briefly near Tahiti
<br>mid-week: L3. Brace for lightning in the squalls with these lows and the
<br>SPCZ.
<br>
<br>HIGHS and LOWS
<br>A Thundery trough crossed NZ on Saturday, opening the door so that NZ may
<br>get some hot air from Australia in a slow-moving High next few days.
<br>There is forecast to be a weak southerly change along East Coast around
<br>Thursday, and a more significant trough by Saturday then another HIGH for
<br>early next week.
<br>
<br>Panama to Marquesas:
<br>7 to 11 Feb are the better days for departure from Panama in order to
<br>capture a burst of NE winds out across the Panama Gulf.
<br>
<br>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
<br>If you would like more details about your voyage, then check <a href="http://metbob.com">metbob.com</a> to
<br>see what I offer.
<br>Or Facebook at /<a href="http://www.facebook.com/metbobnz/">www.facebook.com/metbobnz/</a>
<br>Weathergram with graphics is at <a href="http://metbob.wordpress.com">metbob.wordpress.com</a> (subscribe/unsubscribe
<br>at bottom).
<br>Weathergram archive (with translator) is at <a href="http://weathergram.blogspot.co.nz">weathergram.blogspot.co.nz</a>.
<br>Contact is <a href="mailto:bob@metbob.com">bob@metbob.com</a> or text 64277762212.
<br>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Bob McDavitthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10943943384152619237noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2003473110412789551.post-26575607206727518442024-01-28T02:44:00.000-08:002024-01-28T02:45:14.253-08:00Bob Blog 28 Jan Bob Blog 28 Jan
<br>Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
<br>Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
<br>patterned world.
<br>
<br>Compiled Sunday 28 January 2024
<br>
<br>TROPICS
<br>TANGGREK, and CANDICE are tropical depressions over Indian Ocean and KIRRILY
<br>over inland north Australia. KIRRILY briefly reached Cat 3 before making
<br>landfall near Townsville. These systems contain lots of rain but not much
<br>wind.
<br>
<br>The MJO, a burst of extra energy in the tropics, is now crossing the
<br>Pacific, but is rather weak. Three is an increased risk for possible cyclone
<br>development in the Coral Sea this week, and a low may well develop there
<br>after mid-week.
<br>
<br>WEATHER ZONES
<br>The South Pacific Convergence zone is active and squally over the Coral Sea
<br>and Vanuatu /Fiji with another branch lingering from Tonga across Southern
<br>Cooks and Tahiti area.
<br>
<br>Low L1 is expected to form near 30S and south of Tahiti by mid-week and then
<br>go south.
<br>
<br>Low L2 is expected to be a merger of troughs from Fiji and another from NZ
<br>and should move off the south.
<br>
<br>Low L3 is part of the monsoonal trough now sitting over northern Australia.
<br>
<br>Low L4 might form between Vanuatu and Fiji this weekend and go east towards
<br>Tonga along the SPCZ.
<br>
<br>Low L5 is expected to travel east along 53S past the south of NZ on Saturday
<br>3 Feb followed by large swells in the Tasman Sea. Avoid.
<br>
<br>HIGH H1 should persist to south of L1, strengthening the easterly flow
<br>between L1 and H1.
<br>
<br>HIGH H2 should travel east and bring settled weather to NZ between 4 and 7
<br>Feb for our national day.
<br>
<br>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
<br>If you would like more details about your voyage, then check <a href="http://metbob.com">metbob.com</a> to
<br>see what I offer.
<br>Or Facebook at /<a href="http://www.facebook.com/metbobnz/">www.facebook.com/metbobnz/</a>
<br>Weathergram with graphics is at <a href="http://metbob.wordpress.com">metbob.wordpress.com</a> (subscribe/unsubscribe
<br>at bottom).
<br>Weathergram archive (with translator) is at <a href="http://weathergram.blogspot.co.nz">weathergram.blogspot.co.nz</a>.
<br>Contact is <a href="mailto:bob@metbob.com">bob@metbob.com</a> or text 64277762212.
<br>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Bob McDavitthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10943943384152619237noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2003473110412789551.post-3178206019925529852024-01-21T03:37:00.001-08:002024-01-21T03:37:38.735-08:00BobgramBob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
<br>Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
<br>patterned world.
<br>Compiled Sunday 21 January 2024
<br>
<br>My regards to those attending the AMS Annual meeting in Baltimore over the
<br>next few days - this year's theme is LIVING IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT.
<br>See <a href="http://annual.ametsoc.org/index.cfm/2024/">annual.ametsoc.org/index.cfm/2024/</a>
<br>
<br>How much EXTRA energy has been stored in the ocean in 2023?
<br>In 2023 the ocean absorbed 287 zettajoules of heat, an extra 15 zettajoules
<br>of compared with 2022. What is a zettajoule? That is 10^21 joules. Humanity
<br>uses about half a zettajoule of energy a year to fuel the entire global
<br>economy. (The Guardian).
<br>
<br>Another way to look this is to see how much energy is found in a typical
<br>tropical cyclone. That seems to be around 6 x 10^14 Watts or 5x10^19 joules
<br>per day, or 25x10^19 joules for a 5-day cyclone. That's .25 Zettajoules.
<br>(from <a href="http://science.howstuffworks.com/">science.howstuffworks.com/</a>)
<br>
<br>So, the amount of heat absorbed by oceans last year was equivalent to 70
<br>typical cyclones. More that one a week. Whenever conditions are ripe for
<br>transporting this energy back into the atmosphere via water vapour, it will
<br>express itself as extreme wind and rain.
<br>
<br>TROPICS
<br>TC ANGGREK formed in the south Indian Ocean well away from land. Tropical
<br>depression 90P is forming in the Coral Sea and expected to move onto
<br>Queensland later this week. AVOID.
<br>
<br>There is a Monsoonal low ~995hPa inland Australia and south of Darwin,
<br>weakening. near Madagascar follows ALVARO, which bothered southern
<br>Madagascar last week.
<br>
<br>The MJO, a burst of extra energy in the tropics, is now over Northern
<br>Australia and expected to travel into the South Pacific over next few weeks,
<br>increasing the potential for cyclone formation.
<br>
<br>WEATHER ZONES
<br>The South Pacific Convergence zone is strengthening between north Australia
<br>and Vanuatu across the Coral Sea and lapping onto Fiji at times. Tropical
<br>depression P90 is expected to intensify into a cyclone and make landfall
<br>over Queensland late local Thursday.
<br>A subtropical low L1 to south of Tahiti is expected to travel slowly south.
<br>Another subtropical low L3 may form near Fiji mid-week and then travel south
<br>toward NZ.
<br>
<br>MID LATITUDES
<br>Low L2 belongs to a trough that is expected to cross NZ on Monday and
<br>Tuesday with scattered rain warnings and then move off to the southeast.
<br>High H1 is expected to cross Tasmania on Monday, then the Tasman Sea on
<br>Tuesday and Wednesday, then central NZ on Thursday and North Island on
<br>Friday.
<br>Low L4 is expected to cross Tasmania on Wednesday and reach southern NZ on
<br>Friday.
<br>
<br>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
<br>If you would like more details about your voyage, then check <a href="http://metbob.com">metbob.com</a> to
<br>see what I offer.
<br>Or Facebook at /<a href="http://www.facebook.com/metbobnz/">www.facebook.com/metbobnz/</a>
<br>Weathergram with graphics is at <a href="http://metbob.wordpress.com">metbob.wordpress.com</a> (subscribe/unsubscribe
<br>at bottom).
<br>Weathergram archive (with translator) is at <a href="http://weathergram.blogspot.co.nz">weathergram.blogspot.co.nz</a>.
<br>Contact is <a href="mailto:bob@metbob.com">bob@metbob.com</a> or text 64277762212.
<br>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Bob McDavitthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10943943384152619237noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2003473110412789551.post-19048142736846865422024-01-14T03:59:00.001-08:002024-01-14T03:59:46.986-08:00Bobgram 14Jan 2024Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
<br>Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.
<br>Compiled Sunday 14 January 2024
<br>
<br>How 2023 spread of world temperature compare with pat 80 years.
<br>
<br>The graph at <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-67861954">www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-67861954</a>
<br> shows a histogram for each year since 1940 and reveals the trend of Climate change .
<br>A new edition of NOAA's Climate spiral graphic is at <a href="http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/5190/">svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/5190/</a>
<br>Recent measurements in the ocean are outstanding...
<br>The annual MONSOON reaches Darwin a few days ago, around a week or two LATE.
<br>Rain starts, pressure drops and a gusty NW wind arrives.
<br>
<br>TROPICS
<br>TC BELAL near Madagascar follows ALVARO, which bothered southern Madagascar last week.
<br>The MJO, a burst of extra energy in the tropics, is moving from Indian Ocean towards NW Australia over next few weeks, increasing the potential for cyclone formation around the "top end" of Australia.
<br>
<br>WEATHER ZONES
<br>The South Pacific Convergence zone is strengthening between north Australia and Vanuatu across the Coral Sea and lapping onto Fiji at times.
<br>A tropical low L2 may develop near Fiji by mid-week and go south.
<br>Another tropical Low L3 may deepen over Coral Se by end of the week. Keep a WATCH on this.
<br>
<br>HIGHS and LOWS
<br>HIGH H1 is lingering east of NZ.
<br>There is a trough crossing NZ tonight and Monday.
<br>This trough is expected to be followed by High H2 from Tasmania.
<br>And following that L1 should cross Tasmania on Wednesday and Thursday with peak southerly swell early Friday.
<br>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
<br>
<br>If you would like more details about your voyage, then check <a href="http://metbob.com">metbob.com</a> to see what I offer.
<br>Or Facebook at /<a href="http://www.facebook.com/metbobnz/">www.facebook.com/metbobnz/</a>
<br>Weathergram with graphics is at <a href="http://metbob.wordpress.com">metbob.wordpress.com</a> (subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
<br>Weathergram archive (with translator) is at <a href="http://weathergram.blogspot.co.nz">weathergram.blogspot.co.nz</a>.
<br>Contact is <a href="mailto:bob@metbob.com">bob@metbob.com</a> or text 64277762212.
<br>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Bob McDavitthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10943943384152619237noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2003473110412789551.post-42790190372776264842024-01-09T07:53:00.000-08:002024-01-09T08:00:56.552-08:00Collaboration requestHi there
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<br>See you inside
<br>IcyBob McDavitthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10943943384152619237noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2003473110412789551.post-38880543291686036472024-01-07T03:47:00.001-08:002024-01-07T03:47:41.497-08:00Bob Blog Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
<br>Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
<br>patterned world.
<br>Compiled Sunday 7 January 2024
<br>
<br>A review of last month's weather
<br>Here is a link to a YouTube clip giving an animated loop of the isobars and
<br>streamlines in the South Pacific for the last month at <a href="http://youtu.be/vleK8qYfAZ8">youtu.be/vleK8qYfAZ8</a>
<br>During early December a MJO period helped activate Tropical cyclone JASPER
<br>that made land fall between around 12 December Cairns and Port Douglas with
<br>record breaking rain.
<br>The remainder of the month was relatively quiet.
<br>
<br>Sea Surface temperature anomalies from <a href="http://psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.shtml">psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.shtml</a>
<br>There is now a stretch of warner than normal sea from Queensland to the
<br>dateline northeast of NZ.
<br> This may well herald a cyclone path over next few weeks.
<br>
<br>Average isobars for past month (below)
<br>The Siberian HIGH has expanded and intensified. In the Southern Hemisphere,
<br>the subtropical ridge remains in the Australian Bight and has shifted south
<br>of New Caledonia. It appears to be slightly weaker than last month. A heat
<br>trough has developed over mainland Australia.
<br>
<br>Pressure anomalies for past month (below)
<br>Pressures are now higher than normal over Russia and into the NW Pacific.
<br>The South Pacific Sub tropical ridge is well marked don to around 50S. the
<br>South Pacific convergence zone is weak.
<br>
<br>Zooming into the NZ area
<br>The 1015 isobar has shifted south across Australia and New Zealand., also to
<br>south of New Caledonia.
<br>
<br>TROPICS
<br>TC ALVARO, the first of 2024, brought heavy rain and strong winds to
<br>southern Madagascar after forming over the Mozambique Channel
<br>The MJO, a burst of extra energy in the tropics, is moving from Indian Ocean
<br>towards NW Australia over next few weeks. next few weeks.
<br>
<br>WEATHER ZONES
<br>The South Pacific Convergence zone is weak and mainly between Vanuatu and
<br>Samoa with another branch about the Southern Cooks.
<br>
<br>HIGHS and LOWS
<br>Quirt week ahead.
<br>HIGH H1 is lingering east of NZ.
<br>Low L1 is crossing Tasmania tonight and deepening in South Tasman on
<br>Tuesday/Wednesday and South Island on Thursday /Friday.
<br>Low L2 east of Niue tonight is expected to travel off to the SE next few
<br>days.
<br>Low L3 is expected to form southeast of New Caledonia by mid-week and then
<br>travel SW towards Lord Howe by Friday then maybe SE reaching NZ over the
<br>weekend.
<br>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
<br>
<br>If you would like more details about your voyage, then check <a href="http://metbob.com">metbob.com</a> to
<br>see what I offer.
<br>Or Facebook at /<a href="http://www.facebook.com/metbobnz/">www.facebook.com/metbobnz/</a>
<br>Weathergram with graphics is at <a href="http://metbob.wordpress.com">metbob.wordpress.com</a> (subscribe/unsubscribe
<br>at bottom).
<br>Weathergram archive (with translator) is at <a href="http://weathergram.blogspot.co.nz">weathergram.blogspot.co.nz</a>.
<br>Contact is <a href="mailto:bob@metbob.com">bob@metbob.com</a> or text 64277762212.
<br>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Bob McDavitthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10943943384152619237noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2003473110412789551.post-37077331202683875232023-12-31T02:57:00.001-08:002023-12-31T02:57:38.361-08:00Bob's Blog 31 Dec 2023Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
<br>Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
<br>patterned world.
<br>Compiled Sunday 31 December 2023
<br>
<br>CONGRATULATIONS TO KEVIN TRENBERTH granted a New Year award to be a
<br>Companion of the NZ order of merit for services to Geophysics (Climatology).
<br>
<br>
<br>Tonight, the calendar ticks over to 2024.
<br>We seem to start our calendar year at a strange part of our orbit around the
<br>sun. I like to think of each solar orbit having four corners, and it would
<br>be logical to choose one of these corners to start the year.
<br>Logically the four corners are the two equinoxes and the two solstices.
<br>Indeed, before Roman times March 21st (Spring equinox) was taken to be the
<br>start of the year. But around 700 BCE King Numa Pompilius (the second of 7
<br>Kings before Rome become a Republic) switched that to the start of January
<br>(their god of new beginnings) rather than March.. ruled by Mars, their god
<br>of war). Anything for a quieter life.
<br>
<br>This has continued to mark the start of the solar year. Even so, there are
<br>several festivals around the world that are triggered by solstice and
<br>equinox. The most notable is in the timing of Easter--- which is triggered
<br>by the date of the passive rand is the first Sunday after the Paschal moon
<br>which is the first full moon after the March Equinox.
<br>
<br>Here is a list of festivals based on the "four corners" of the year:
<br>
<br>When Who/Where What Why
<br>
<br>From 5 Jan to end of Feb China Harbin Ice Mid winter
<br>
<br>8 to 14 Jan India Kite Festival Peak wind
<br>
<br>28 Jan Japan Wakakusa Yamayaki Grass fires to drive away boars
<br>
<br>31 Jan Scotland Up Helly Aa end of winter yule
<br>
<br>4-11 Jan Japan Sapporo Snow ice sculptures
<br>
<br>2 Feb USA Groundhog Day pre-spring.
<br>
<br>5 Feb USA Weatherperson's Day/John Jeffries Birthday
<br>
<br>5-19 Feb Taiwan Lantern Festival end of Lunar new year
<br>
<br>16-22 Feb Bolivia Oruro Carnival precursor to Lent.
<br>
<br>21 Feb New Orleans Mardi Gras Shrove Tuesday.
<br>
<br>17-25 Feb Brazil Carnival Pre lent.
<br>
<br>8 March India Holi start of spring.
<br>
<br>23 March UN World Meteorological Day
<br>
<br>2-6 April Bhutan Paro Tshechu Spring
<br>
<br>2-8 April Guatemala Semana Santa Spring/Holy week
<br>
<br>Early May Boun Bang Fai Rocket Day Thailand/Laos Spring
<br>
<br>22 June Peru IntiRaymi Solstice
<br>
<br>28 June (2024) NZ Matariki Mid (southern) winter
<br>
<br>Early July US The Dog Days (Sirius) Mid (northern) summer
<br>
<br>15 July UK St Swithin's Day predicts next 40 days of rain
<br>
<br>Mid Sep to early Oct full moon China Mook cake day/Harvest moon full moon
<br>after equinox
<br>
<br>Late December old Norse word YULE Tide /Christmas Solstice
<br>
<br>YULE tide is a phrase referring to the "12 nights of Christmas" but
<br>originally was, probably, taken from a Norse name for feasting to mark
<br>mid-winter solstice.
<br>
<br>TROPICS
<br>All looks quiet for the start of 2024
<br>The MJO, a burst of extra energy in the tropics, is now weakening and
<br>leaving the Pacific, so the next few weeks should be quieter than normal.
<br>
<br>WEATHER ZONES
<br>The South Pacific Convergence zone is expected to have a quiet week and
<br>mainly be between Solomon Islands and Suwarrow.
<br>
<br>HIGHS and LOWS
<br>Low L1 crossing NZ on New Years eve is expected to move off to the east
<br>followed by HIGH H1 crossing NZ mid-week.
<br>Low L2 is expected to form east of Tasmania on Wednesday and reach central
<br>NZ around Friday 5 January.
<br>Showery at times this between in North Tasman between Brisbane and Noumea.
<br>Avoid.
<br>
<br>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
<br>If you would like more details about your voyage, then check <a href="http://metbob.com">metbob.com</a> to
<br>see what I offer.
<br>Or Facebook at /<a href="http://www.facebook.com/metbobnz/">www.facebook.com/metbobnz/</a>
<br>Weathergram with graphics is at <a href="http://metbob.wordpress.com">metbob.wordpress.com</a> (subscribe/unsubscribe
<br>at bottom).
<br>Weathergram archive (with translator) is at <a href="http://weathergram.blogspot.co.nz">weathergram.blogspot.co.nz</a>.
<br>Contact is <a href="mailto:bob@metbob.com">bob@metbob.com</a> or text 64277
<br>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Bob McDavitthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10943943384152619237noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2003473110412789551.post-78804719684181452422023-12-24T02:56:00.001-08:002023-12-24T02:56:57.200-08:00Bob BlogBob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
<br>Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
<br>patterned world.
<br>Compiled Sunday 24December 2023
<br>
<br>As a fitting topic for this Christmas edition of my blog, THREE KINGS
<br>ISLANDS
<br>The Muriwhenua Maori of the far north tell how navigator Kupe discovered and
<br>explored the region.
<br>They inhabited these offshore islands and named the largest MANAWATAWHI ---
<br>(panting breath).
<br>
<br>New Year 1643
<br>On 6 January Abel Tasman came across the Islands and since this was the
<br>Epiphany (12th night of Christmas) he named them Drie Koningen Eyland (The
<br>Three King Islands). He noticed the largest was inhabited and didn't hang
<br>around.
<br>
<br>December 1769
<br>Rounding The Top Of New Zealand
<br>It took Endeavour from 11 to 30 December to round the top end due to light
<br>winds and then a passing front.
<br>On Christmas day they identified Three Kings, as reported in the log, as
<br>seen at
<br><a href="http://www.captaincooksociety.com/cooks-voyages/first-pacific-voyage/october-december-1769">www.captaincooksociety.com/cooks-voyages/first-pacific-voyage/october-decemb
<br>er-1769</a>
<br>
<br>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
<br>As Endeavour neared North Cape, the weather could be calm. On 11 December,
<br>Cook recorded "Gentle breezes at NW and pleasent weather. Kept plying all
<br>this day, but got very little to windward". Banks praised the ship, "we
<br>turnd [tacked] all day without loosing any thing, much to the credit of our
<br>old Collier, who we never fail to praise if she turns as well as this". Two
<br>days later, "heavy squalls attended with rain... split the Main topsail in
<br>such a manner that it was necessary to unbend it and bring another to the
<br>yard... At Noon had strong gales and hazy weather—tack'd and stood to the
<br>westwd. No land in sight, for the first time since we have been upon the
<br>Coast" of New Zealand. In the evening, Cook "brought the ship under her
<br>Courses having first split the fore and Mizn Topsails". The next day he "Set
<br>the Topsails close reef'd and the people to work to dry and repair the
<br>damaged sails".
<br>
<br>On 14 December, Cook "Saw land bearing SW being the same North-Westermost
<br>land we have seen before and which I take to be the northern extremity of
<br>this Country as we have now a large swell rowling in from the westward which
<br>could not well be was we covered by any land on that point of the compass".
<br>Banks agreed, "a heavy swell from the west made us almost conclude that
<br>there was no land to the Northward of us".
<br>
<br>The next day, Cook "stood to the westward with as much sail as the Ship
<br>could bear". The next day, he "got topgt yards up and set the sails, unbent
<br>the foresail to repair and brought another to the yard". And, on the next
<br>day "the people at work repairing the Sails, the most of them having been
<br>split in the late blowing weather". John Ravenhill was the sailmaker in
<br>charge.
<br>
<br>On 18 December, Cook named the land they could see "North Cape judging it to
<br>be the northern extremity of this Country". Banks spotted some­thing. "On a
<br>rock pretty near us an Indian fort was seen through our glasses which we all
<br>thought was encircled with a mud wall; if so tis the only one of the kind we
<br>have seen".
<br>
<br>Two days later, Banks had "hopes of a fair wind in the morn but they soon
<br>left us and it began to blow hard with violent claps of thunder, on which we
<br>again stood out to sea". The following day there was "a great swell from the
<br>West". On the next day "the wind has come more to the Southward so that we
<br>cannot come in with the land at all".
<br>
<br>Christmas Time
<br>
<br>On Christmas Eve Cook saw land "bearing SSE distant 8 Leagues... It proves
<br>to be a small Island which we take to be the Three Kings discover'd by
<br>Tasman: there are several smaller Islands or Rocks lying off the SW end and
<br>one at the NE end". It was, wrote Banks, "Calm most of the Day: myself in a
<br>boat shooting in which I had good success, killing cheifly several Gannets
<br>or Solan Geese so like Europaean ones that they are hardly distinguishable
<br>from them. As it was the humour of the ship to keep Christmas in the old
<br>fashiond way it was resolvd of them to make a Goose pye for tomorrows
<br>dinner".
<br>
<br>On Christmas Day "Our Goose pye was eat with great approbation and in the
<br>Evening all hands were as Drunk as our forefathers usd to be upon the like
<br>occasion". Not surprisingly, the following day "all heads achd with
<br>yesterday's debauch". Cook did not record the meal in his journal.
<br>
<br>On 30 December, Cook "wore and stood to the SE and being pretty moderate we
<br>set the Topsails close reef'd, but the SW Sea runs so high that the Ship
<br>goes boddily to leeward. At 6 Saw the land bearing NE distant about 6
<br>Leagues which we judge to be the same as Tasman calls Cape Maria van
<br>Diemen".
<br>
<br>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
<br>As for the inhabitants, local Māori farmers stayed on the Island until the
<br>late 1830s, then gave up on it and returned to the mainland.
<br>
<br>TROPICS
<br>JELIWAT brought some rain to southern parts of the Philippines.
<br>The MJO a burst of extra energy in the tropics, is now weakening and leaving
<br>the Pacific, so the next few weeks should be quieter than normal.
<br>
<br>WEATHER ZONES
<br>The South Pacific Convergence zone is strong near 3 to 5S as far as
<br>Tuvalu/Tokelau and then in a line from Niue to Tahiti.
<br>
<br>HIGHS and LOWS
<br>HIGH H1 to east of NZ should continue moving off to east.
<br>Low L1 is crossing NZ for Christmas then moving off to the east, followed by
<br>clearing weather as H2 visits NZ mid-week.
<br>Low L2 is expected to deepen off Sydney mid-week and cross NZ this weekend
<br>as a trough.
<br>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
<br>If you would like more details about your voyage, then check <a href="http://metbob.com">metbob.com</a> to
<br>see what I offer.
<br>Or Facebook at /<a href="http://www.facebook.com/metbobnz/">www.facebook.com/metbobnz/</a>
<br>Weathergram with graphics is at <a href="http://metbob.wordpress.com">metbob.wordpress.com</a> (subscribe/unsubscribe
<br>at bottom).
<br>Weathergram archive (with translator) is at <a href="http://weathergram.blogspot.co.nz">weathergram.blogspot.co.nz</a>.
<br>Contact is <a href="mailto:bob@metbob.com">bob@metbob.com</a> or text 64277762212.
<br>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Bob McDavitthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10943943384152619237noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2003473110412789551.post-65483933329545304912023-12-17T03:53:00.001-08:002023-12-17T03:53:59.619-08:00Bob Blog 17 dec Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
<br>Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
<br>patterned world.
<br>Compiled Sunday 17 December 2023
<br>
<br>EL NINO dynamic
<br>This El Nino episode may now be at its peak.
<br>
<br>The atmospheric SOI values are relaxing..
<br>
<br>The Ocean:
<br>The parameter used from the ocean is based on the sea surface temperatures
<br> in the equatorial eastern Pacific and called the NINO 3.4 SST anomaly.
<br>Recent forecasts show that the Sea surface temperature anomalies in the Nino
<br>3.4 area may have peaked and in JFM will start relaxing.
<br>
<br>This El Nino has been twined with a positive IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) with
<br>the combo shifting activity into the mid pacific.
<br>However the IOD has gone thru a relaxation process recently
<br>And so this En Nino may soon start shifting focus more to the east.
<br>
<br>TROPICS
<br>
<br>JASPER made landfall near Port Douglas, QLD bring damaging wind and rain.
<br>JELIWAT has just formed eats of the Philippines
<br>The MJO, a burst of extra energy in the tropics, is expected to peak over
<br>the Pacific Ocean in the next two weeks.
<br>
<br>WEATHER ZONES
<br>The South Pacific Convergence zone is strong near Vanuatu to across
<br>Fiji/Tonga /Samoa to Tahiti region. .
<br>
<br>HIGHS and LOWS
<br>Low L1 is expected to form off SE of Sydney by mid-week and travel off to
<br>the SE.
<br>High H1 to NE of North Island is quasi stationary or expected to slowly
<br>creep westwards.
<br>Hight H2 may travel across South Island and bloom east of South Island
<br>briefly then fade.
<br>Trough between H1 and H2 expected to cross North Island on Monday then fade
<br>away.
<br>High H3 to west of Tasmania by mid-week is expected to cross the South
<br>Tasman Sea on Friday and reach east of South Island by Saturday.
<br>Low L2 should form over inland QLD by mid -week and travel SE to be off
<br>Sydney by weekend.
<br>Low L3 is expected to spread SW onto New Caledonia by mid-week then continue
<br>SW and fade in Tasman Sea.
<br>
<br>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
<br>If you would like more details about your voyage, then check <a href="http://metbob.com">metbob.com</a> to
<br>see what I offer.
<br>Or Facebook at /<a href="http://www.facebook.com/metbobnz/">www.facebook.com/metbobnz/</a>
<br>Weathergram with graphics is at <a href="http://metbob.wordpress.com">metbob.wordpress.com</a> (subscribe/unsubscribe
<br>at bottom).
<br>Weathergram archive (with translator) is at <a href="http://weathergram.blogspot.co.nz">weathergram.blogspot.co.nz</a>.
<br>Contact is <a href="mailto:bob@metbob.com">bob@metbob.com</a> or text 64277762212.
<br>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Bob McDavitthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10943943384152619237noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2003473110412789551.post-24617512722268535872023-12-10T02:47:00.001-08:002023-12-10T02:47:13.652-08:00Bobgram 10 DecBob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
<br>Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
<br>patterned world.
<br>Compiled Sunday 10 December 2023
<br>
<br>2023 Ozone layer
<br>
<br>During November, instead of doing it normal seasonal decay, the Ozone hole
<br>area remained much the same, so that in early December it has been breaking
<br>the December record.
<br>The Antarctic ozone hole has been slow to fill in over recent years as
<br>measured by <a href="http://atmosphere.copernicus.eu">atmosphere.copernicus.eu</a>.
<br>Some expect this may be related to global warming, which tends to cool
<br>stratospheric temperatures and changes stratospheric chemistry and dynamics.
<br>Ozone depletion is also believed to be influenced by greenhouse gas
<br>emissions, volcanic and wildfires aerosols or even changes in the solar
<br>cycle.
<br>Another possibility for this year's weird behaviour is due to a residual of
<br>water vapour in the stratosphere left over from last year's Hunga Tonga
<br>-Hunga Ha'apai volcanic eruption.
<br>Whatever the cause, these measurements are concerning.
<br>
<br>TROPICS
<br>JASPER formed over the Solomon Islands and is moving slowly westwards across
<br>the Coral Sea and intensifying. It is expected to make landfall near
<br>(probably north of) Cairns on Wednesday. Avoid.
<br>The MJO, a burst of extra energy in the tropics, is expected to peak over
<br>the Pacific Ocean in the next two weeks.
<br>
<br>WEATHER ZONES
<br>The South Pacific Convergence zone is strong from Solomon Islands to Samoa
<br>to Tahiti.
<br>JASPER is travelling westwards across the Coral Sea. A Low /trough L1 over
<br>Tonga is expected to travel off to the south by mid-week a d another L2 near
<br>Niue is expected to deepen the weekend and go south early next week. Avoid.
<br>HIGHS and LOWS
<br>Lows are expected to travel quickly across southern and eastern NZ: one on
<br>Monday and another on Thursday, followed by large southerly swells in the
<br>eastern Tasman Sea.
<br>HIGH H1 in Tasman Sea by mid-weak is expected to cross northern NZ on
<br>Thursday and Friday.
<br>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
<br>If you would like more details about your voyage, then check <a href="http://metbob.com">metbob.com</a> to
<br>see what I offer.
<br>Or Facebook at /<a href="http://www.facebook.com/metbobnz/">www.facebook.com/metbobnz/</a>
<br>Weathergram with graphics is at <a href="http://metbob.wordpress.com">metbob.wordpress.com</a> (subscribe/unsubscribe
<br>at bottom).
<br>Weathergram archive (with translator) is at <a href="http://weathergram.blogspot.co.nz">weathergram.blogspot.co.nz</a>.
<br>Contact is <a href="mailto:bob@metbob.com">bob@metbob.com</a> or text 64277762212.
<br>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Bob McDavitthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10943943384152619237noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2003473110412789551.post-30640358764077741482023-12-03T03:40:00.000-08:002023-12-03T03:41:10.052-08:00Bob Blog 3 DecBob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
<br>Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
<br>patterned world.
<br>Compiled Sunday 3 December 2023
<br>
<br>A review of last month's weather
<br>Here is a link to a YouTube clip giving an animated loop of the isobars and
<br>streamlines in the South Pacific for the last month at <a href="http://youtu.be/DBf6tMA0pxw">youtu.be/DBf6tMA0pxw</a>
<br>
<br>During November the South Pacific weather pattern was something like the
<br>game called FROGGER (available at <a href="http://froggerclassic.appspot.com/">froggerclassic.appspot.com/</a>)
<br>With Large trucks being the HIGHS migrating from west to east , from south
<br>of Australia across the Tasman Sea and then stalling east of New Zealand.
<br>The more nimble low systems are like the frogs trying to get from north to
<br>south or south to north sometimes succeeding by sidestepping between the
<br>Highs,
<br> and sometimes being squashed. This rhythm is the typical spring pattern a
<br>mix of pattern and chaos.
<br>
<br>However El Nino is kicking in, along with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole.
<br>The combined impact is to make a breeding ground for tropical lows near 5 to
<br>10S and 170 E to 170W.
<br>
<br>During November this only activated once around mid-month
<br>And a similar pattern is happening this weekend.
<br>The warmer than normal area that has been around NZ for much of this year is
<br>getting smaller.
<br>
<br>Average isobars for past month : The Siberian HIGH has developed quickly in
<br>November. In the Southern Hemisphere, the subtropical ridge has shifted into
<br>the Australian Bight and a heat trough has developed over mainland
<br>Australia.
<br>
<br>Pressure anomalies for past month : Falling pressures over Russia and rising
<br>pressures over the roaring 40s in the Southern Hemisphere. Note the tendril
<br>of low pressure from Fiji towards New Zealand,.
<br>
<br>Zooming into the NZ area: The 1015 isobar has shifted south across
<br>Australia.
<br>
<br>TROPICS
<br>RAMON appeared briefly in the NE Pacific and MICHAUNG is now fading off
<br>India.
<br>Depression92P is building slowly near the Solomon Islands.
<br>It has a twin just north of the equator, defying the rule that rotating
<br>winds are impossible at the equator:
<br>The MJO, a burst of extra energy in the tropics, is expected to enter the
<br>western Pacific over next few weeks.
<br>
<br>WEATHER ZONES
<br>The South Pacific Convergence zone is building especially with Tropical
<br>depression 92P near Solomons.
<br>This may become a cyclone and travel SW into Coral Sea, and maybe Tasman Sea
<br>next week. AVOID.
<br>HIGHS and LOWS
<br>HIGH H1 well to east of NZ and south of Tahiti is acting as a block.
<br>It should be replaced by HIGH H2 by end of the week.
<br>LOW L1 crossed North Island on Sunday and is expected to linger to NE of NZ
<br>until mid-week and then travel off to the southeast.
<br>Associated trough is expected to cross Tonga around local Friday.
<br>High H3 should form in Tasman Sea by mid-week and cross central NZ this
<br>weekend.
<br>A trough from Southern Ocean is expected to enter South Tasman Sea by Friday
<br>and cross the South Island on Saturday followed by a trough and southerly
<br>change early next week.
<br>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
<br>If you would like more details about your voyage, then check <a href="http://metbob.com">metbob.com</a> to
<br>see what I offer.
<br>Or Facebook at /<a href="http://www.facebook.com/metbobnz/">www.facebook.com/metbobnz/</a>
<br>Weathergram with graphics is at <a href="http://metbob.wordpress.com">metbob.wordpress.com</a> (subscribe/unsubscribe
<br>at bottom).
<br>Weathergram archive (with translator) is at <a href="http://weathergram.blogspot.co.nz">weathergram.blogspot.co.nz</a>.
<br>Contact is <a href="mailto:bob@metbob.com">bob@metbob.com</a> or text 64277762212.
<br>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Bob McDavitthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10943943384152619237noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2003473110412789551.post-4469558920124812792023-11-26T03:08:00.000-08:002023-11-26T03:09:08.839-08:00Bob BlogBob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
<br>Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
<br>patterned world.
<br>
<br>Compiled Sunday 26 November 2023
<br>
<br>Earth briefly passed a critical warming threshold on Fri 17 Nov. According
<br>to data from ERA5, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts'
<br>(ECMWF) fifth generation reanalysis of the global climate from 1940 to the
<br>present, 17 November 2023 was the first day in which the global temperature
<br>exceeded 2°C above pre-industrial levels. These latest figures put Earth's
<br>rising temperatures into sharp focus ahead of COP28, which is set to start
<br>in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, on 30 November.
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>TROPICS
<br>The South Pacific Convergence zone is located from Solomons to Tokelau and
<br>then SE towards Southern Cooks.
<br>
<br>HIGHS and LOWS
<br>
<br>LOW1 has been east of Gisborne this weekend with southerly rain over NE of
<br>NZ and is moving off to the southeast.
<br>HIGH H1 is remaining quasi stationary around 35S to south of Tahiti, with a
<br>strong ridge along 30S between Fiji and NZ.
<br>LOW L2 off Tasmania by Monday is expected to cross NZ as a trough on Tuesday
<br>followed by a SW flow on Wednesday.
<br>HIGH H2 should follow L2 crossing NZ on Thursday and Friday.
<br>LOW L3 is expected to move from Aussie interior to off NSW by Thursday and
<br>then travel east across the Tasman this weekend and central NZ on Monday.
<br>These are mediocre features this week, nothing to noticeably avoid.
<br>
<br>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
<br>If you would like more details about your voyage, then check <a href="http://metbob.com">metbob.com</a> to
<br>see what I offer.
<br>Or Facebook at /<a href="http://www.facebook.com/metbobnz/">www.facebook.com/metbobnz/</a>
<br>Weathergram with graphics is at <a href="http://metbob.wordpress.com">metbob.wordpress.com</a> (subscribe/unsubscribe
<br>at bottom).
<br>Weathergram archive (with translator) is at <a href="http://weathergram.blogspot.co.nz">weathergram.blogspot.co.nz</a>.
<br>Contact is <a href="mailto:bob@metbob.com">bob@metbob.com</a> or text 64277762212.
<br>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Bob McDavitthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10943943384152619237noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2003473110412789551.post-85567107923111530772023-11-19T04:37:00.000-08:002023-11-19T04:38:02.346-08:00Bob BlogBob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
<br>Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
<br>patterned world.
<br>Compiled Sunday 19 November 2023
<br>
<br>"Characterization of Microplastics in Clouds over Eastern China"
<br>Environmental Science & Technology Letters
<br>
<br>Researchers characterized the properties of microplastics in clouds at the
<br>top of Mount Tai (shown here), finding the particles could play a role in
<br>cloud formation.
<br>Microplastics - plastic fragments smaller than five millimeters - originate
<br>from a myriad of items used daily, such as clothing, packaging and car
<br>tires. As research in the field evolves, scientists are not only detecting
<br>microplastics in the atmosphere but also investigating how they may play a
<br>role in cloud formation. For example, a group of researchers recently
<br>detected plastic granules, which had water-attracting surfaces, in Japanese
<br>mountaintop clouds. So, to learn more, Yan Wang and colleagues set out to
<br>look for microplastics in mountain clouds, used computer models to figure
<br>out how they could have gotten there, and tested how the particles could
<br>have impacted - and been impacted by - the clouds.
<br>
<br>Wang and the team first collected 28 samples of liquid from clouds at the
<br>top of Mount Tai in eastern China. Then they analyzed the samples and found:
<br>
<br>. Low-altitude and denser clouds contained greater amounts of microplastics.
<br>
<br>. Particles were made of common polymers, including polyethylene
<br>terephthalate, polypropylene, polyethylene, polystyrene and polyamide.
<br>
<br>. The microplastics tended to be smaller than 100 micrometers in length,
<br>although some were as long as 1,500 micrometers.
<br>
<br>. Older, rougher particles had more lead, mercury and oxygen attached to
<br>their surfaces, which the researchers suggest could facilitate cloud
<br>development.
<br>
<br>TROPICS
<br>Finally, a weekend with no named storms.
<br>
<br>MAL visited NW Fiji with some strong winds and heavy rain, frightening many
<br>yachts into the mangroves, but things quickly returned to normal.
<br>The MJO, a burst of extra energy in the tropics, is now reforming in the
<br>Indian Ocean.
<br>
<br>WEATHER ZONES
<br>The South Pacific Convergence zone is located from Solomons to Tokelau and
<br>then SE towards Southern Cooks.
<br>
<br>HIGHS and LOWS
<br>HIGH H1 is travelling east along around 50S to east of NZ, blocking the
<br>movement of L1.
<br>It is leaving behind another HIGH H2 in the Tasman Sea which fades away on
<br>Thursday,
<br>LOW L1 is moving off northland on Monday and being pushed off to the NE and
<br>expected to fade by mid-week.
<br>LOW L2 from Sydney area by Tuesday is expected to merge with a low from
<br>Southern Ocean and become a large Low across NZ to east of North Island by
<br>next Saturday with a southerly blast over NZ. Avoid.
<br>This also may bring Southerly swells to 3m as far north as 30S between 170
<br>and 175E in the North Tasman Sea by Saturday. Avoid.
<br>
<br>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
<br>If you would like more details about your voyage, then check <a href="http://metbob.com">metbob.com</a> to
<br>see what I offer.
<br>Or Facebook at /<a href="http://www.facebook.com/metbobnz/">www.facebook.com/metbobnz/</a>
<br>Weathergram with graphics is at <a href="http://metbob.wordpress.com">metbob.wordpress.com</a> (subscribe/unsubscribe
<br>at bottom).
<br>Weathergram archive (with translator) is at <a href="http://weathergram.blogspot.co.nz">weathergram.blogspot.co.nz</a>.
<br>Contact is <a href="mailto:bob@metbob.com">bob@metbob.com</a> or text 64277762212.
<br>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Bob McDavitthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10943943384152619237noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2003473110412789551.post-75276989973299373262023-11-17T21:04:00.000-08:002023-11-17T21:13:01.965-08:00Collaboration requestHi there
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<br>LashawnnaBob McDavitthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10943943384152619237noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2003473110412789551.post-32547355699116337602023-11-12T03:15:00.001-08:002023-11-12T03:15:53.637-08:00Bob blogMcDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
<br>
<br>Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
<br>patterned world.
<br>
<br>Compiled Sunday 12 November 2023
<br>
<br>The November Migration
<br>A snapshot of marine traffic mid last week shows that the November migration
<br>of cruising yachts (coloured orange here) is in full swing. 1 November is
<br>nominally the start of the cyclone season, and yachts are exiting the
<br>tropics. Some are heading for Australia, and many seem lined up for New
<br>Zealand
<br>
<br>I've chosen this week to also do a road-trip /migration and will be visiting
<br>Northland. I shall be visiting the Opua Cruising club for dinner on
<br>Wednesday and Thursday evening. I invite any one in this migration who has
<br>recently arrived in Opua to have a chat.
<br>
<br>And the migration seems to be timely. There was a equatorial westerly last
<br>week and it is helping to form a twin of spinning spirals neat 150 to 180:
<br>
<br>The spinning thunderstorms near 10S 170E have now developed into tropical
<br>depression 91P/02F
<br>
<br>The models still are differing about over the future of this system.
<br>
<br>I find that good reading of it potential impact is available from the wind
<br>accumulation map selection on <a href="http://windy.com">windy.com</a> .
<br>
<br>The latest OFFICIAL information is issued by Fiji Met Service in their
<br>tropical disturbance notice at <a href="http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/20032.txt">www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/20032.txt</a>
<br>
<br>TROPICS
<br>
<br>Apart form the Depression NW of Fiji, there are also others being watched on
<br>the northern side of the equator that were triggered by that equatorial
<br>westerly.
<br>The MJO, a burst of extra energy in the tropics, is now over the western
<br>Pacific for the next few weeks.
<br>
<br>WEATHER ZONES
<br>The South Pacific Convergence zone is mainly mixed in with clouds of the
<br>forming Tropical cyclone. The path of the gales is across Fiji mainly on
<br>Tuesday /Wednesday and Minerva on Thursday. Avoid. Those travelling south to
<br>NZ should target to get south of 28S by Thursday.
<br>
<br>HIGHS and LOWS
<br>HIGH H1 is travelling east along 35S. There is a squash zone of enhanced
<br>trade winds on its northern side and this seems to be weakening.
<br>
<br>There is a trough between Tonga and NZ. Low L1 should form in this trough
<br>near 30S 180 tonight and travel SE this week Combined with a front crossing
<br>NZ on Tuesday this is expected to maintain a southerly flow from NZ to as
<br>far north as 30S until Wednesday.
<br>
<br>A front over SW of NZ on Monday is likely to stall, bringing extreme rain.
<br>
<br>The next trough and low is expected to cross Tasman Sea and South Island on
<br>Thursday and then stall over North Island on Friday and the weekend.
<br>
<br>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
<br>If you would like more details about your voyage, then check <a href="http://metbob.com">metbob.com</a> to
<br>see what I offer.
<br>Or Facebook at /<a href="http://www.facebook.com/metbobnz/">www.facebook.com/metbobnz/</a> Weathergram with graphics is at
<br><a href="http://metbob.wordpress.com">metbob.wordpress.com</a> (subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
<br>Weathergram archive (with translator) is at <a href="http://weathergram.blogspot.co.nz">weathergram.blogspot.co.nz</a>.
<br>Contact is <a href="mailto:bob@metbob.com">bob@metbob.com</a> or text 64277762212.
<br>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Bob McDavitthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10943943384152619237noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2003473110412789551.post-60181833350248679112023-11-05T04:25:00.001-08:002023-11-05T04:25:39.957-08:00Bob Blog 5 Nov Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
<br>Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
<br>patterned world.
<br>Compiled Sunday 5November 2023
<br>
<br>A review of last month's weather
<br>Here is a link to a YouTube clip giving an animated loop of the isobars and
<br>streamlines in the South Pacific for the last month at <a href="http://youtu.be/z6UHHEhr8Tc">youtu.be/z6UHHEhr8Tc</a>
<br>
<br>During October the mid-latitudes were a true mix of intrusions form tropics
<br>and polar regions. As is normal in Sprin. This year the sea over the central
<br>equatorial Pacific were warmer than normal and Cyclone LOLA was produced,
<br>briefly Cat 5 near Pentecost Island, The Low rejuvenated when it met cold
<br>southerly winds in the Tasman Sea and brough wet windy conditions to norther
<br>North Island a few days after the COASTAL CLASSIC
<br>
<br>At about the same time Cyclone OTIS burst to Cat % as it moved onto
<br>Acapulco:
<br>I can't remember any month in the recent path with two Cat 5 cyclones almost
<br>at the same time in different hemisphere.
<br>
<br>Seasonal changes are observable: In the Northern Hemisphere the winter HIGH
<br>has developed over much of Europe. In the Southern Hemisphere, the
<br>subtropical ridge is shifting slowly south.
<br>
<br>Pressure anomalies for past month
<br>Shows falling pressures over Russia and rising pressures over the roaring
<br>40s in the Southern Hemisphere.
<br>A detail of interest is that LOLA's rejuvenation in the Tasman Sea has
<br>impacted the anomaly map.
<br>Isobars are getting higher over Australia /NE/and further east. There is
<br>also higher pressure building over eastern Canada. Lower pressures over
<br>southern Indian ocean.
<br>
<br>Zooming into the NZ area
<br>The isobars north and south of New Zealand haven't changed much, and
<br>overall, the 1020 isobar covers a smaller area. However, there is a new 1025
<br>isobar west of Perth.
<br>
<br>TROPICS
<br>PILAR crossed El Salvidor with downpours and is now travelling NW across the
<br>Paciifc
<br>The MJO, a burst of extra energy in the tropics, is expected to enter the
<br>western Pacific over next few weeks.
<br>
<br>WEATHER ZONES
<br>The South Pacific Convergence zone is building between Solomons and Samoa.
<br>There is expected to be a weak passing trough over Tahiti area next weekend.
<br>
<br>Topical Low L2 is expected to form between Fiji and Samoa from mid-week and
<br>then creep slowly westwards towards Solomons next week. Avoid.
<br>HIGH H1 east of NZ is acting as a block.
<br>There is a trough between Tonga and NZ. Low L1 should form in this trough
<br>near 30S 180 tonight and travel SE this week Combined with a front crossing
<br>NZ on Tuesday this is expected to maintain a southerly flow from NZ to as
<br>far north as 30S until Wednesday.
<br>HIGH H2 is expected to spread from south of Tasmania to mid Tasman Sea by
<br>mid-week and then travel NE onto northern NZ.
<br>Between H2 and L2 a squash zone of enhanced easterly winds and large swell
<br>is expected to form from Thursday around 15 to 20S.
<br>For arriving in NZ: Light winds this weekend, then a minor front likely
<br>around Tue 14 Nov, then a few good days with westerly winds.
<br>
<br>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
<br>If you would like more details about your voyage, then check <a href="http://metbob.com">metbob.com</a> to
<br>see what I offer.
<br>Or Facebook at /<a href="http://www.facebook.com/metbobnz/">www.facebook.com/metbobnz/</a>
<br>Weathergram with graphics is at <a href="http://metbob.wordpress.com">metbob.wordpress.com</a> (subscribe/unsubscribe
<br>at bottom).
<br>Weathergram archive (with translator) is at <a href="http://weathergram.blogspot.co.nz">weathergram.blogspot.co.nz</a>.
<br>Contact is <a href="mailto:bob@metbob.com">bob@metbob.com</a> or text 64277762212.
<br>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Bob McDavitthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10943943384152619237noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2003473110412789551.post-81362262553047521122023-10-29T05:30:00.001-07:002023-10-29T05:30:57.223-07:00Bob Blog 29 OctBob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
<br>Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
<br>patterned world.
<br>Compiled Sunday 29 Oct 2023
<br>
<br>LOLA's rejuvenation
<br>
<br>An outbreak of cold air from the Southern Ocean washed over NZ during the
<br>past week and then, over the weekend, met with the remains of LOLA in the
<br>north Tasman Sea
<br>
<br>The central pressure of the system dropped from 1008 to 994 in 24 hours, a
<br>drop of 14 hPa near 30S.
<br>This was caused by the extreme temperature/density difference between the
<br>air for the north and the air from the South. The process is called rapid
<br>cyclogenesis. This is why one of the rules for sailing from Fiji to New
<br>Zealand is "Do not go south with a falling barometer."
<br>
<br>TROPICS
<br>TAMMY is now in the North Atlantic after soaking the NE Caribbean, and the
<br>depression 19-E is off the west of Mexico.
<br>Last week LOLA was briefly Cat5 near Pentecost Island. OTIS was briefly Cat
<br>5 near Acapulco. HARMOON caused a quarter of million people to evacuate
<br>into shelters in southern Bangladesh. NORMA is near Baja California and
<br>TAMMY is near the Caribbean. TEJ I flooded pasts of Yemen.
<br>
<br>Meteorologists were slammed in the media for the jump to Category 5 by OTIS
<br>See <a href="http://tinyurl.com/CycloneOtis">tinyurl.com/CycloneOtis</a>
<br>This idea of shooting the messenger in the media and slamming forecasters
<br>seems to be becoming a trend. MetService issued a review of its performance
<br>in a few major events in NZ last summer see <a href="http://tinyurl.com/MetServiceGabrielle">tinyurl.com/MetServiceGabrielle</a>
<br>. One thing the media have not been reporting is that although the computer
<br>models sometimes behave poorly, manual forecasters manage to add value by
<br>issuing warnings that work in saving lives. Insurance companies have noted
<br>that even though the amount of weather damage they have to pay out for is
<br>rising with climate change, the death toll from weather is falling.
<br>
<br>WEATHER ZONES
<br>
<br>The South Pacific Convergence zone is expected to stay from Solomons to
<br>Samoa. A trough is expected to cross the Minerva area on local Tuesday
<br>followed by a lull.
<br>HIGHS and LOWS
<br>HIGH H1 crossing southern NZ tonight is moving off to the east along 40S.
<br>LOW L1 is travelling southeast and sideswiping the northeast of North Island
<br>on Monday then fading away, leaving behind a lull.
<br>There is a strong squash zone between H1 and L1. Avoid.
<br>LOW L2 is expected to form in central Tasman Sea by mid-week and then fade
<br>across central NZ by the weekend, followed by a SW flow.
<br>The scene is set for southerly winds over northern NZ from 6 to 9 Nov
<br>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
<br>If you would like more details about your voyage, then check <a href="http://metbob.com">metbob.com</a> to
<br>see what I offer.
<br>Or Facebook at /<a href="http://www.facebook.com/metbobnz/">www.facebook.com/metbobnz/</a>
<br>Weathergram with graphics is at <a href="http://metbob.wordpress.com">metbob.wordpress.com</a> (subscribe/unsubscribe
<br>at bottom).
<br>Weathergram archive (with translator) is at <a href="http://weathergram.blogspot.co.nz">weathergram.blogspot.co.nz</a>.
<br>Contact is <a href="mailto:bob@metbob.com">bob@metbob.com</a> or text 64277762212.
<br>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Bob McDavitthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10943943384152619237noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2003473110412789551.post-76403439030062407602023-10-22T04:39:00.001-07:002023-10-22T04:39:29.918-07:00Bob Blog 22 OctBob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
<br>Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
<br>patterned world.
<br>Compiled Sunday 22 Oct 2023
<br>
<br>LOLA's origins
<br>
<br>Last week we looked at the Australian and South Pacific Cyclone outlooks for
<br>the coming season. In my "what to avoid" summary I concluded that "Low L3
<br>is expected to deepen over northern Vanuatu next week and maybe travel SW
<br>into Coral Sea. Avoid this next week."
<br>
<br>Well "Low 3" has now been named LOLA
<br>
<br>
<br>and is the first cyclone of the new season that nominally starts on
<br>1November.
<br> LOLA was named ten days before season start. Why so early?
<br>Looking at the satellite imagery, It seems that LOLA follows the normal
<br>recipe for cyclone cooking.
<br>
<br>1. Heat the sea to over 26C
<br>
<br>2. Add lots of moisture a gang of tropical squally thunderstorms
<br>
<br>3. And spin. As the gang of thunderstorms tumble together, they create
<br>an area where air is vented up and outwards faster than it can be drawn in
<br>from the fringes.
<br>4. The central pressure drops, making more isobars on the weather map,
<br>making a faster spin. This continues as long as the system has warm sea
<br>and moist air to feed on.
<br>
<br>
<br> Looking at the streamlines ...
<br>
<br>
<br>.. It seems that the centre of action that has allowed LOLA to form is
<br>related to the warm water over the central Pacific. Prior to its formation
<br>there was a zone of equatorial westerlies all by itself near the dateline.
<br>not an extension of the Asian monsoon. LOLA formed with an equatorial twin
<br>thanks to those equatorial westerlies. So, it formed around 5S, very close
<br>to the equator, an unusual spot for a South Pacific Cyclone -- these
<br>usually form on the South Pacific Convergence zone. This may be related to
<br>El Nino. It is associated with a shift of the Walker cell into the central
<br>Pacific, especially when combined with a positive Indian Dipole.
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>See <a href="https://tinyurl.com/hadleywalker">https://tinyurl.com/hadleywalker</a>
<br>
<br>So, 2023 is an El Nino year with an active zone near the equator. The same
<br>pattern happened in 1972 and helped form TC BEBE 19th-29th October. It also
<br>formed near 5S.
<br>
<br>
<br>TROPICS
<br>NORMA is near Baja California and TAMMY is near the Caribbean .TEJ is making
<br>landfall over Yemen And LOLA is deepening as it approaches Vanuatu..
<br>
<br>WEATHER ZONES
<br>A lot to avoid this week.
<br>The South Pacific Convergence zone is expected to stay from Solomons to
<br>LOLA. Another branch is expected to linger north of Fiji to Samoa. A trough
<br>should linger from Southern Cooks to south of Tahiti. LOLA is expected to
<br>deepen as it moves slowly south near Vanuatu and peak at category 3 by
<br>Wednesday then travel south or southeast maybe towards NZ next weekend.
<br>Avoid.
<br>HIGHS and LOWS
<br>Low L1 east of NZ is expected to travel east.
<br>HIGH H1 over NZ is expected to follow L1.
<br>Trough is expected to roll northeastwards across the Tasman Sea followed by
<br>strong SE winds and southerly swells up to 5m. Should reach from Bundaberg
<br>to Northland by Friday. Avoid.
<br>This is followed by a HIGH that stretches from central Tasman Sea to South
<br>Island by next weekend.
<br>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
<br>If you would like more details about your voyage, then check <a href="http://metbob.com">metbob.com</a> to
<br>see what I offer.
<br>Or Facebook at /<a href="http://www.facebook.com/metbobnz/">www.facebook.com/metbobnz/</a>
<br>Weathergram with graphics is at <a href="http://metbob.wordpress.com">metbob.wordpress.com</a> (subscribe/unsubscribe
<br>at bottom).
<br>Weathergram archive (with translator) is at <a href="http://weathergram.blogspot.co.nz">weathergram.blogspot.co.nz</a>.
<br>Contact is <a href="mailto:bob@metbob.com">bob@metbob.com</a> or text 64277762212.
<br>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Bob McDavitthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10943943384152619237noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2003473110412789551.post-11542195941607903372023-10-15T05:01:00.001-07:002023-10-15T05:01:59.951-07:00Bob Blog 15 OctBob Blog 15 Oct
<br>Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
<br>Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
<br>patterned world.
<br>Compiled Sunday 15 Oct 2023
<br>
<br>The Cyclone Outlook for the coming season:
<br>
<br>Gilbert Walker was an applied mathematician at the University of Cambridge
<br>when he became director-general of observatories in India in 1904. While
<br>there, he studied the characteristics of the Indian Ocean monsoon, the
<br>failure of whose rains had brought severe famine to the country in 1899.
<br>Analysing vast amounts of weather data from India and the rest of the world,
<br>over the next fifteen years he published the first descriptions of the great
<br>seesaw oscillation of atmospheric pressure between the Indian and Pacific
<br>Ocean, and its correlation to temperature and rainfall patterns across much
<br>of the Earth's tropical regions, including India. One of his identified
<br>oscillations has been named the Southern Oscillation and Walker worked with
<br>the Indian Meteorological Department studying the link between the monsoon
<br>and Southern Oscillation phenomenon. He was made a Companion of the Order of
<br>the Star of India in 1911.
<br>
<br>
<br>Image shows a normal Walker circulation as a conceptual zone of rising air
<br>over Australia and sinking air over Peru. aloo shows a reversed Walker as it
<br>is now during an El Nino event with sinking air over Australia (dry) (see
<br>Oceanreview.com))
<br>
<br>The Walker circulation over the Indian ocean is known as the Indian Ocean
<br>Diopole. This is having a positive phase at present, also bringing sinking
<br>dry air over Australia. (from study <a href="http://iq.com">iq.com</a>).
<br>
<br>Thanks to the combination of an El Nino and a positive Indian Dipole,
<br>Australia is being dealt dry sinking air from both the Pacific and the
<br>Indian Oceans. Australia's Bureau of Met have issued their Cyclone outlook
<br>for the coming season with the summary:
<br>
<br>Below average number of tropical cyclones is likely for Australia in 2023-24
<br>
<br>And in New Zealand the combined resources of NIWA and MetService have issued
<br>a map of expected cyclone numbers:
<br>
<br>Using analogue years 73/73,83/83,02/03,04/05, and09/10 and going for reduced
<br>risk near Australia, normal to elevated risk between Tuvalu and Tahiti, and
<br>elevated risk for Vanuatu, Fiji and Northern Cooks.
<br>See://<a href="http://niwa.co.nz/sites/niwa.co.nz/files/tc_outlook_2023-24.pdf">niwa.co.nz/sites/niwa.co.nz/files/tc_outlook_2023-24.pdf</a>
<br>
<br>TROPICS
<br>
<br>SEAN is travelling to the northwest across he North Atlantic.
<br>
<br>WEATHER ZONES
<br>The South Pacific Convergence zone is expected to stay north from Solomons
<br>to northern Vanuatu to Tuvalu. There is expected to be a passing trough over
<br>Southern Cooks and Tahiti around mid-week helping Island -hopping from
<br>Tahiti to Tuamotu Islands.
<br>
<br>HIGHS and LOWS
<br>HIGH H1 east of NZ is expected to travel slowly eastwards along 35 to 40S.
<br>
<br>LOW L1 is expected to roll in from SW of Tasmania and go NE and deepen in
<br>the Tasman Sea on Tuesday. Associated warm front should stall around
<br>northern NZ on Wednesday and Thursday with strong NE to E winds. Low is then
<br>expected to weaken into a trough reaching Fiji and Tonga over the weekend.
<br>
<br>Low L3 is expected to deepen over northern Vanuatu next week and maybe
<br>travel SW into Coral Sea. Avoid this next week
<br>
<br>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
<br>If you would like more details about your voyage, then check <a href="http://metbob.com">metbob.com</a> to
<br>see what I offer.
<br>Or Facebook at /<a href="http://www.facebook.com/metbobnz/">www.facebook.com/metbobnz/</a>
<br>Weathergram with graphics is at <a href="http://metbob.wordpress.com">metbob.wordpress.com</a> (subscribe/unsubscribe
<br>at bottom).
<br>Weathergram archive (with translator) is at <a href="http://weathergram.blogspot.co.nz">weathergram.blogspot.co.nz</a>.
<br>Contact is <a href="mailto:bob@metbob.com">bob@metbob.com</a> or text 64277762212.
<br>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Bob McDavitthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10943943384152619237noreply@blogger.com0