Bobgram

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled 6 April 2025
MJO/ Madden Julian Oscillation

A quiet phase of the MJO is expected over the next few weeks, and this
should help keep the South Pacific Convergence zone in a mellow mood
and reduce the risk of a late season cyclone.
Here is the latest constructed analogue forecast for the MJO

Basically, in these maps: blue mean "bubbly" and yellow means "mellow"

TROPICS
The latest cyclone activity report is at zoom.earth and
tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and Tropical Cyclone Potential is from
www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/tropical/tcfp/

There are no named Topical cyclones around at present.
WEATHER ZONES
Weather Zones Mid-week GFS model showing isobars, winds, waves
(purple), rain (red), MT (Monsoonal trough), STR (Subtropical Ridge),
SPCZ (South Pacific Convergence Zone) CZ (Convergence Zone)


Rain accumulation this week from Windy.com shows heaviest rain may be
near northern Australia. Also, with SPCZ to SE of New Caledonia.

Wind accumulation this week from Windy.com
The wind accumulation shows some wind zones with L1. Also, a small
squash zone near Kermadecs and between Niue and Aitutaki this week.
LOWS and HIGHS
Low L1 and associated troughs crossing NZ on Monday and Tuesday
followed by a cold southerly flow on Wednesday.
HIGH H1 south of Tahiti is expected to fade away late in the week.
HIGH H2 is expected to travel east across Bass Strait on Monday and
then the Tasman Sea and reaching central NZ from Thursday to the
weekend, with a small squash zone on its northern side.
Gulf of Panama: Useful NE winds and showery.
5N to Galapagos: Light winds often from behind. Good tail currents
on the direct route. Showery especially south of 2N.

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