Bobgram

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled 22 Mar 2026
EQUINOCTUAL CYCLONES
The Equinox was yesterday morning (New Zealand time).

Cyclone NARELLE formed west of Vila last week and since then has been
travelling west.

We now have depression 98P forming in the same place, and it is forecast to
go south this week


TROPICS


Cyclone Narelle spun up over the northern Coral Sea and intensified to cat 4
when making landfall over Cape York peninsular and cat 5 in Gulf of
Carpentaria and is expected to build again in warm seas off northwest of
Australia.
98P is expected to deepen to below 985hPa when it enters the central Tesman
sea by Thursday. This is a good recipe for lowering pressure. take warm
moist air (low density) from the tropics and send it into cooler conditions
(denser air). The less dense air gets raised up high and vented off by
strong winds aloft. when the conditions for this are set up, air is removed
from the system so that its surface pressure lowers (more isobars) and that
squeezes the isobars togethers. more wind.

WEATHER ZONES
Cyclone NARELLE is expected to continue around Aussie coast and deepen again
when over the sea. I suggest that you save its track-a lot will be written
about it in the future.
L2 comes out from the north end of a southern trough. Its associated
convergence zone is expected to bring squalls mainly between Samoa and
Tahiti this week.
HIGH H1 has given a period of "Indian summer" weather to New Zealand with
sunny afternoons but overnight dew or mist. It is moving away and fading
next few days.
L1/98P is expected to bring a period of wet/windy weather to the North
Island on Tuesday night to Thursday as it travels south, and to South Island
on Friday--- possibly with a secondary low forming east of Sydney bringing
them a southerly buster.
H2 is expected to slowly travel east across the Aussie Bight reaching
Tasmania this weekend.

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