Bobgram

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled 29 Mar 2026

Cyclone NARELLE formed on Saint Paddy's Day and continued to PALM Sunday
Reminds us of another waltzing Matilda -type cyclone called STEVE in the
year2000:

The WMO released their latest "State of the Climate" report to mark WORD
METEOROLOGY DAY WMD last Monday (I celebrated WMD with a toast to
meteorologists everywhere-the weather knows no boundaries).
wmo.int/publication-series/state-of-global-climate/state-of-global-climate-2
025

The main statement in this report is that our planet now has an energy
IMBALANCE -it is trapping more energy from the sun than it is emitting, and
this imbalance is increasing.




TROPICS

NARELLE and last week's tropical depression near Vanuatu have reduced that
cyclone formation potential from the South Pacific Convergence zone There
are no named cyclone on the weather map tonight. However, there is an
interesting zone of high cyclone formation potential now near the Southern
Cooks

WEATHER ZONES

The remains of NARELLE are now moving off to the southeast into the Southern
Ocean.
L1 and its associated fronts developed last few days as an east coast low
off Sydney and is crossing New Zealand tonight and Monday then moving off to
the southeast followed by High H1 bringing NZ a good start to easter.
At the same time High H2 brings a settled Easte to Southeast Australia.
Note that H2 is expected to move inland for a while--- previous highs have
been taking the summer path across the Australian Bight. but now that we
have had the Equinox , the nights over the Australian deserts are longer
than the days. leading to cooler denser air which can support the higher
hectoPascals.
After a brief trough over NZ on Saturday and Easter Sunday, High H2 brings
NZ some more settled "Indian Summer" weather just after Easter.
Lurking in the tropics is another Low L2 forming during Easter between
Vanuatu and Fiji/New Caledonia. The models are still differing about its
future scenarios. more about that next week


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