Bob blog 30 May 2021

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

Compiled Sunday 30 May

New Zealand Storm
It's awe inspiring (awesome and awful) to a meteorologist:
The Low in the Tasman Sea tonight has a central pressure of 983hPa and a arc of southerly winds on its west side to over 50 knots, producing 10m 12 second southerly swells. The closed isobars are all 1010 or lower and cover an area the size of Australia. The upper low is slightly east of the surface centre and has a jetstream to 167knots at 250hPa.
A hose of onshore easterly winds around 30knots are driving air onto Canterbury where the rising terrain is assisting rainfall to around 145mm/day, producing river flooding and evacuations.
See www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/focus-evacuations-as-state-of-emergency-declared-for-canterbury-regions/C7ULWC5J2HQKESDNFBDFYWCPZE/

Last Wednesday the full moon and perigee were within hours of each other (and moon's orbit took it into earth's shadow). The resulting King tides, and storm surge are evident on the Timaru tide gauge :
The storm surge is a combo of higher than normal high tides due to a perigean moon, plus a little lift from lower than normal isobars (each hPa below 1012 can raise the sea 10mm), plus the piling up of the sea by strong on-shore winds.
See niwa.co.nz/our-science/coasts/tools-and-resources/sea-levels/timaru

The Tropics
The latest cyclone activity report is at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and Tropical Cyclone Potential is from www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html
There are no named cyclones tonight, but there is a tropical depression (FOUR) east of Philippines and a zone of high potential of the Mexican west coast.

WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
The SPCZ is expected to be rather thin and weak, stretching from Solomon Islands across northern Vanuatu to Fiji/Tonga, much like last week.
A weak passing trough is expected over Tonga on Tuesday and southern Cooks by end of the week.

Subtropical ridge (STR)
HIGH up to 1023hPa is expected to move off Australia and into central Tasman Sea by Tuesday and over northern New Zealand on Thursday and then further east along 35S.
A ridge over South Tasman Sea is expected to develop into a High east of the South Island by Saturday and then move east along 45S nest week.

Aussie/Tasman/NZ troughs
The large Low over Tasman/New Zealand tonight is expected to travel over the North Island on Monday and then off to the southeast followed by a SW flow on Tuesday.
Another trough is expected to reach the South Island by Friday, triggering another Low to form in the central Tasman Sea by Saturday. This low should be able to be used as a shepherd for yachts wishing to get from Australia to Fiji.

Panama to Galapagos/Marquesas
Light winds for Panama. SW/S winds from 5North to Galapagos. As for going to Marquesas, currents are better if go via north of Galapagos.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Bob Blog 23 May

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 23 May

On 11 May the earth-to-moon distance was 406,512 km, the farthest apogee for
the year, however its perigee this month on 26 May is with a distance of
357,309km that's 69km closer than last month, and the second closest for the
whole year, and it occurs 9hr 12min before a full moon, whereas last month
the perigee was 11hr 52mins after a full moon. This means that the media
this week will be all a gosh and call it a supermoon. See
www.fourmilab.ch/earthview/pacalc.html for a lunar apogee /perigee
calculator. (PS: I also recommend his planetarium, Home Planet
www.fourmilab.ch/homeplanet, originally written pre-millennium for Windows
95 I still find it the best and smallest computer planetarium).
Anyway, when the perigee is within a day or so of a full or new moon the
gravitational pulls that drive the tides line up producing what are called
"king tides". The extra pull isn't much --think of the back-and-forth of the
tide as similar to a kid on the swing with one parent each side giving a
push proportional to the time of the month. When things line up best we get
the best swing.
These King tides have higher highs and lower lows so stronger ebbs and flows
and these can be dangerous.
NIWA (New Zealand Institute) have constructed a "Red Alert" calendar showing
which days have King tides (red) and which days are "carefree" (blue) See
niwa.co.nz/sites/niwa.co.nz/files/styles/full_screen_feature/public/VisRep20
21RedTides.jpg

Another factor affecting coastal inundation is storm surge. Isobars on the
weather map are given in hectoPascals, and each hPa below the norm of 1013
may lift the sea as much as 1cm. this is called the "inverse barometer
effect" or IB. Also deep lows and usually fringed by zones of strong winds ,
and strong onshore winds can pile the sea upwards along a coastline, causing
a "storm surge". This is explained further at
www.linz.govt.nz/sea/tides/introduction-tides/meteorological-effects-tides

There is a deep low off to the northeast of NZ So, with combined effect of
larger tides, strong on shore winds, and low pressure, there is no surprise
that there is a storm surge on the North Island east coast this week. See
www.facebook.com/watch/TheInformerMB/
And we can track this storm surge thanks to NIWA tide gauge at Whitianga
wharf thanks to Environment Waikato and NIWA (SS=total storm surge,
IB=Inverse barometer).
See
niwa.co.nz/our-science/coasts/tools-and-resources/sea-levels/whitianga-wharf

The Tropics
The latest cyclone activity report is at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and Tropical
Cyclone Potential is from www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html
During the past week Cyclone Tauktae damaged the West Coast of India and Ana
as named as the first cyclone of the North Atlantic season. Overnight
tonight the tropical depression in the Bay of Bengal is likely to be named
YAAS.
There are also some zones of potential development in the China Sea and east
of Philippines.

WEATHER ZONES

SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
The SPCZ is expected to be rather thin and weak, stretching from Solomon
Islands across norther Vanuatu to Fiji/Tonga.
A weak passing trough is expected southeast of French Polynesia.
Rain Accumulation next five days from windy.com

Subtropical ridge (STR)
HIGH up to 1034 over south of South Island on Monday is expected to travel
east along 45S and weaken.
Next High is expected to finally get east of Tasmania by Wednesday 2 June.

Aussie/Tasman/NZ troughs
Low has deepened to NE of NZ and is expected to stall and loop there, with a
squash on its south side, finally moving off on Thursday.
Then on Friday another Low is expected to form in the Tasman Sea and to
travel over North Island on Sat/Sun 29/30 May, followed for several days by
a SW flow over NZ.

Panama to Galapagos/Marquesas
Light winds for Panama. SW/S winds from 5North to Galapagos. As for going to
Marquesas, currents are better id go via north of Galapagos.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/ Weathergram with graphics is at
metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Bob Blog 16 May

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.

Compiled Sunday 16 May

Fiji Government's Covid Risk Management Taskforce CRMT issued (on Friday 14
May) a limitation to Fiji's Bluelane initiative. All visiting yacht crew and
passengers can still disembark at the port of clearance (Denarau or
Savusavu), BUT NOWHERE ELSE. Yachts are allowed to cruise around Fiji's
maritime islands, and anchor but NOT disembark. This applies to uninhabited
islands as well. They can return to their arrival port to disembark. Also,
all crew and passengers with a mobile phone need to download the careFIJI
app and turn Bluetooth on.

The Tropics
The latest cyclone activity report is at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and Tropical
Cyclone Potential is from www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html
Cyclone ANDRES was named on 9 May, off the west coast of Mexico. Making it
the first named storm in the NorthEast Pacific-the cyclone season here
nominally starts on 15 May, so it as an early start to the season. Cyclone
TAUKTAE, off the west coast of India, is also an early starter. As if India
isn't having a hard enough time already with its second wave of the COVID 19
pandemic, TAUKTAE weather has closed Goa airport and is expected to make
landfall over the Gujarat coast during the early hours of local Tuesday. It
is expected to weaken inland and not affect the Mount Everest climbing
season.

There are some weak zones of potential development east of Philippines and
west of Mexico.

WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.

The SPCZ is expected to be returning to normal and mainly from Coral Sea to
northern Vanuatu/northern Fiji to between Raro and Tahiti, and rather weak
over Samoa.
A low is expected to form between New Caledonia and Fiji by Friday and
travel southeast to east of NZ by Sunday.

Subtropical ridge (STR)
HIGH 1022+ at 30S to south of French Polynesia is expected to move off to
the southeast by mid-week. The mini-squash-zone between Tahiti and Tonga is
expected to weaken accordingly.
HIGH 1026+ off NSW by Tuesday is expected to travel along 35S/40S and reach
North Island by mid-week and form another HIGH east of North Island from
Thursday.

Aussie/Tasman/NZ troughs
On Monday and Tuesday, south of 35S, passing Troughs are expected to bring
strong W/SW winds and large swells to Tasman Sea/NZ area. Then OK for
Sailing from Aus to NZ.
Avoid the Low between Fiji and NZ on Friday/Saturday.

Panama to Galapagos/Marquesas
Light winds for Panama. SW/S winds from 5North to Galapagos. Currents help
make the trip to Marquesas via north of Galapagos better this week.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

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Bob Blog 9 May

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 9 May

Regarding the LUCKGRIB app I mentioned last week---The only supported ways
to run the app are by downloading it to your Mac, iPhone or iPad via the
Apple App store. Anybody downloading the app via that link for Android
should first do a backup, as there is a great chance that the download may
corrupt your device.
Regarding the weather links I mentioned a few weeks back, the ones for the
Fiji and New Zealand weather maps are crook and linking to old data at
present. This is being worked on and hopefully can be fixed. I'll keep you
posted.

The Tropics
The 2020-2021 Season (from Wikipedia)

On December 8, a disturbance formed near Fiji, starting the 2020-21 South
Pacific Ocean cyclone season, it gradually intensified into a depression and
attained a tropical storm status according to JTWC. It reached at the
maximum 10 minutes sustained wind speed of 55 km/h (35 mph) and minimum
pressure of 1000 mb (29.53 inHg). Another disturbance formed near the
existing 01F and rapidly intensified into a depression. It hampered the
system intensification due to a brief interaction with Tropical Depression
01F. Following the same day, another disturbance formed and intensified into
a depression the next day. 01F became a remnant low and was absorbed by
Tropical Depression 02F. On December 13, 15:00 UTC, 02F intensified into a
Category 1 tropical cyclone, giving it the name Yasa. It quickly
strengthened into a Category 5 tropical cyclone before impacting Fiji. 03F
intensified into Category 1 tropical cyclone Zazu, strengthening to Category
2. Yasa became the most intense tropical cyclone of 2020, surpassing Goni
with a minimum barometric pressure of 899 mb (26.55 inHg) and a maximum wind
speed of 250 km/h (155 mph). It was also the fourth most intense South
Pacific tropical cyclone in terms of pressure after Winston, Zoe, and Pam.
Yasa caused heavy damage in and four deaths in Fiji. It then became
extratropical on December 20.
After all that, the basin remained quiet for a while until activity picked
up in late January. Four depressions formed within a few days of each other,
with two becoming named, Ana and Bina. Ana became a Category 3 tropical
cyclone struck Fiji like Yasa did and caused damage in the island nation.
Bina was a short-lived storm that affected Fiji and Vanuatu. Then, on
February 1, Lucas entered the basin form the Australian region. It peaked as
a Category 2 tropical cyclone and affected the Loyalty Islands. Afterward,
another depression formed.
Another pause of inactivity ensued again, with only a small disturbance
forming, in late February. However, in early March, Niran entered the basin
from the Australian region as a Category 5 severe tropical cyclone. It
passed close to New Caledonia before becoming extratropical north of New
Zealand. The basin became quiet once again until a disturbance formed on
April 9, strengthening into a depression later.

The latest cyclone activity report shows There are some weak zones of
potential development east of Philippines and west of Mexico.

WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
The SPCZ is expected to be weak and mainly from northern Vanuatu to Samoa
and then southeast towards between Raro and Tahiti.
A low is expected to form on the SPCZ southeast of Raro around mid-week and
deepen as it moves off to the south.

Subtropical ridge (STR)
HIGH 1030+ east of NZ is travelling east along 35S.
HIGH 1030+ over Tasmania on Tuesday is expected to travel east along 45S and
across South Island on Thursday and then fade.

Aussie/Tasman/NZ troughs
Trough over Tasmania tonight reaching South Island by Tuesday and North
Island on Wednesday followed by a one-day southerly, possibly forming a Low
east of North Island on Thursday.
Low is expected to form off NSW coast on Friday and go SE onto Southland by
Saturday with a trough over rest of Tasman/NZ. This trough may offer a
chance for sailing from Queensland to New Caledonia with a mid-week
departure.

Panama to Galapagos/Marquesas
Light winds for Panama. SW/S winds from 5North to Galapagos. Currents help
make the trip to Marquesas via north of Galapagos better this week.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Bob Blog 2 May 2021

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 2 May

One weather app for your smart phone that I didn't mention last week, and is worth trying out is Luckgrib.com - it has been engineered for Apple devices but can be used on android devices (baixarapk.gratis/en/app/992336031/luckgrib). It has been optimised to download weather data on low bandwidth connections., supports iridium Go and RedPort Optimizer

REVIEW OF THE LAST MONTH (April 2021)
Sea Surface temperature anomalies Compared with a month ago:
La Nina has gone, and eastern equatorial Pacific is now near normal. The warm patch near West Australia has weakened. Everything else is much the same as last month.
The subtropical ridges in both hemispheres have grown during the past month, especially in southern Indian Ocean and across Australian Bight. The doldrums have shifted both west and east off Indonesia.
Pressure falls over the Arctic as spring arrives there. Swing from high to low pressures in north Atlantic and from neutral to low pressures over Tasman Sea / New Zealand area. The 1015 isobar has shrunk around and started to travel northwards across Australia as the continent cools inland as the nights get longer.
The seasonal weather pattern is on target for the end of the cyclone season in the Southern hemisphere.

The Tropics
There are some weak zones of potential development east of Philippines and between Vanuatu and Fiji.

WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
The SPCZ is expected to be weak and mainly north of Fiji and Samoa, and another branch from south of Fiji to Southern Cooks
A trough is expected to form between Queensland and New Caledonia this week. This may bring a weather pattern that is Ok for sailing from Australia eastwards.

Subtropical ridge (STR)
HIGH 1031hPa in the Tasman Sea weakening over northern NZ Mon to Wed.
Another HIGH in south Tasman Sea by wed developing to 1038hPa over and east of the South Island northeast-wards from Thurs to Sunday.
These highs are expected to make a squash zone of enhanced ESE winds on their northern side, mainly around 20S.

Aussie/Tasman/NZ troughs
Low is expected to form off NSW coast by mid-week and then travel off to the south.
Front with southerly change over Tasmania by Monday morning should reach southern NZ by late Tuesday and North Island by late Wednesday.

Panama to Galapagos/Marquesas
Light winds for Panama. SW winds from around 7N to 5N then southerly winds to Galapagos. Currents help make the trip via north of Galapagos better this week.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com(subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is atweathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

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