Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 31 December 2023
CONGRATULATIONS TO KEVIN TRENBERTH granted a New Year award to be a
Companion of the NZ order of merit for services to Geophysics (Climatology).
Tonight, the calendar ticks over to 2024.
We seem to start our calendar year at a strange part of our orbit around the
sun. I like to think of each solar orbit having four corners, and it would
be logical to choose one of these corners to start the year.
Logically the four corners are the two equinoxes and the two solstices.
Indeed, before Roman times March 21st (Spring equinox) was taken to be the
start of the year. But around 700 BCE King Numa Pompilius (the second of 7
Kings before Rome become a Republic) switched that to the start of January
(their god of new beginnings) rather than March.. ruled by Mars, their god
of war). Anything for a quieter life.
This has continued to mark the start of the solar year. Even so, there are
several festivals around the world that are triggered by solstice and
equinox. The most notable is in the timing of Easter--- which is triggered
by the date of the passive rand is the first Sunday after the Paschal moon
which is the first full moon after the March Equinox.
Here is a list of festivals based on the "four corners" of the year:
When Who/Where What Why
From 5 Jan to end of Feb China Harbin Ice Mid winter
8 to 14 Jan India Kite Festival Peak wind
28 Jan Japan Wakakusa Yamayaki Grass fires to drive away boars
31 Jan Scotland Up Helly Aa end of winter yule
4-11 Jan Japan Sapporo Snow ice sculptures
2 Feb USA Groundhog Day pre-spring.
5 Feb USA Weatherperson's Day/John Jeffries Birthday
5-19 Feb Taiwan Lantern Festival end of Lunar new year
16-22 Feb Bolivia Oruro Carnival precursor to Lent.
21 Feb New Orleans Mardi Gras Shrove Tuesday.
17-25 Feb Brazil Carnival Pre lent.
8 March India Holi start of spring.
23 March UN World Meteorological Day
2-6 April Bhutan Paro Tshechu Spring
2-8 April Guatemala Semana Santa Spring/Holy week
Early May Boun Bang Fai Rocket Day Thailand/Laos Spring
22 June Peru IntiRaymi Solstice
28 June (2024) NZ Matariki Mid (southern) winter
Early July US The Dog Days (Sirius) Mid (northern) summer
15 July UK St Swithin's Day predicts next 40 days of rain
Mid Sep to early Oct full moon China Mook cake day/Harvest moon full moon
after equinox
Late December old Norse word YULE Tide /Christmas Solstice
YULE tide is a phrase referring to the "12 nights of Christmas" but
originally was, probably, taken from a Norse name for feasting to mark
mid-winter solstice.
TROPICS
All looks quiet for the start of 2024
The MJO, a burst of extra energy in the tropics, is now weakening and
leaving the Pacific, so the next few weeks should be quieter than normal.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is expected to have a quiet week and
mainly be between Solomon Islands and Suwarrow.
HIGHS and LOWS
Low L1 crossing NZ on New Years eve is expected to move off to the east
followed by HIGH H1 crossing NZ mid-week.
Low L2 is expected to form east of Tasmania on Wednesday and reach central
NZ around Friday 5 January.
Showery at times this between in North Tasman between Brisbane and Noumea.
Avoid.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check metbob.com to
see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
31 December 2023
24 December 2023
Bob Blog
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 24December 2023
As a fitting topic for this Christmas edition of my blog, THREE KINGS
ISLANDS
The Muriwhenua Maori of the far north tell how navigator Kupe discovered and
explored the region.
They inhabited these offshore islands and named the largest MANAWATAWHI ---
(panting breath).
New Year 1643
On 6 January Abel Tasman came across the Islands and since this was the
Epiphany (12th night of Christmas) he named them Drie Koningen Eyland (The
Three King Islands). He noticed the largest was inhabited and didn't hang
around.
December 1769
Rounding The Top Of New Zealand
It took Endeavour from 11 to 30 December to round the top end due to light
winds and then a passing front.
On Christmas day they identified Three Kings, as reported in the log, as
seen at
www.captaincooksociety.com/cooks-voyages/first-pacific-voyage/october-decemb
er-1769
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
As Endeavour neared North Cape, the weather could be calm. On 11 December,
Cook recorded "Gentle breezes at NW and pleasent weather. Kept plying all
this day, but got very little to windward". Banks praised the ship, "we
turnd [tacked] all day without loosing any thing, much to the credit of our
old Collier, who we never fail to praise if she turns as well as this". Two
days later, "heavy squalls attended with rain... split the Main topsail in
such a manner that it was necessary to unbend it and bring another to the
yard... At Noon had strong gales and hazy weather—tack'd and stood to the
westwd. No land in sight, for the first time since we have been upon the
Coast" of New Zealand. In the evening, Cook "brought the ship under her
Courses having first split the fore and Mizn Topsails". The next day he "Set
the Topsails close reef'd and the people to work to dry and repair the
damaged sails".
On 14 December, Cook "Saw land bearing SW being the same North-Westermost
land we have seen before and which I take to be the northern extremity of
this Country as we have now a large swell rowling in from the westward which
could not well be was we covered by any land on that point of the compass".
Banks agreed, "a heavy swell from the west made us almost conclude that
there was no land to the Northward of us".
The next day, Cook "stood to the westward with as much sail as the Ship
could bear". The next day, he "got topgt yards up and set the sails, unbent
the foresail to repair and brought another to the yard". And, on the next
day "the people at work repairing the Sails, the most of them having been
split in the late blowing weather". John Ravenhill was the sailmaker in
charge.
On 18 December, Cook named the land they could see "North Cape judging it to
be the northern extremity of this Country". Banks spotted something. "On a
rock pretty near us an Indian fort was seen through our glasses which we all
thought was encircled with a mud wall; if so tis the only one of the kind we
have seen".
Two days later, Banks had "hopes of a fair wind in the morn but they soon
left us and it began to blow hard with violent claps of thunder, on which we
again stood out to sea". The following day there was "a great swell from the
West". On the next day "the wind has come more to the Southward so that we
cannot come in with the land at all".
Christmas Time
On Christmas Eve Cook saw land "bearing SSE distant 8 Leagues... It proves
to be a small Island which we take to be the Three Kings discover'd by
Tasman: there are several smaller Islands or Rocks lying off the SW end and
one at the NE end". It was, wrote Banks, "Calm most of the Day: myself in a
boat shooting in which I had good success, killing cheifly several Gannets
or Solan Geese so like Europaean ones that they are hardly distinguishable
from them. As it was the humour of the ship to keep Christmas in the old
fashiond way it was resolvd of them to make a Goose pye for tomorrows
dinner".
On Christmas Day "Our Goose pye was eat with great approbation and in the
Evening all hands were as Drunk as our forefathers usd to be upon the like
occasion". Not surprisingly, the following day "all heads achd with
yesterday's debauch". Cook did not record the meal in his journal.
On 30 December, Cook "wore and stood to the SE and being pretty moderate we
set the Topsails close reef'd, but the SW Sea runs so high that the Ship
goes boddily to leeward. At 6 Saw the land bearing NE distant about 6
Leagues which we judge to be the same as Tasman calls Cape Maria van
Diemen".
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
As for the inhabitants, local Māori farmers stayed on the Island until the
late 1830s, then gave up on it and returned to the mainland.
TROPICS
JELIWAT brought some rain to southern parts of the Philippines.
The MJO a burst of extra energy in the tropics, is now weakening and leaving
the Pacific, so the next few weeks should be quieter than normal.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is strong near 3 to 5S as far as
Tuvalu/Tokelau and then in a line from Niue to Tahiti.
HIGHS and LOWS
HIGH H1 to east of NZ should continue moving off to east.
Low L1 is crossing NZ for Christmas then moving off to the east, followed by
clearing weather as H2 visits NZ mid-week.
Low L2 is expected to deepen off Sydney mid-week and cross NZ this weekend
as a trough.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check metbob.com to
see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 24December 2023
As a fitting topic for this Christmas edition of my blog, THREE KINGS
ISLANDS
The Muriwhenua Maori of the far north tell how navigator Kupe discovered and
explored the region.
They inhabited these offshore islands and named the largest MANAWATAWHI ---
(panting breath).
New Year 1643
On 6 January Abel Tasman came across the Islands and since this was the
Epiphany (12th night of Christmas) he named them Drie Koningen Eyland (The
Three King Islands). He noticed the largest was inhabited and didn't hang
around.
December 1769
Rounding The Top Of New Zealand
It took Endeavour from 11 to 30 December to round the top end due to light
winds and then a passing front.
On Christmas day they identified Three Kings, as reported in the log, as
seen at
www.captaincooksociety.com/cooks-voyages/first-pacific-voyage/october-decemb
er-1769
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
As Endeavour neared North Cape, the weather could be calm. On 11 December,
Cook recorded "Gentle breezes at NW and pleasent weather. Kept plying all
this day, but got very little to windward". Banks praised the ship, "we
turnd [tacked] all day without loosing any thing, much to the credit of our
old Collier, who we never fail to praise if she turns as well as this". Two
days later, "heavy squalls attended with rain... split the Main topsail in
such a manner that it was necessary to unbend it and bring another to the
yard... At Noon had strong gales and hazy weather—tack'd and stood to the
westwd. No land in sight, for the first time since we have been upon the
Coast" of New Zealand. In the evening, Cook "brought the ship under her
Courses having first split the fore and Mizn Topsails". The next day he "Set
the Topsails close reef'd and the people to work to dry and repair the
damaged sails".
On 14 December, Cook "Saw land bearing SW being the same North-Westermost
land we have seen before and which I take to be the northern extremity of
this Country as we have now a large swell rowling in from the westward which
could not well be was we covered by any land on that point of the compass".
Banks agreed, "a heavy swell from the west made us almost conclude that
there was no land to the Northward of us".
The next day, Cook "stood to the westward with as much sail as the Ship
could bear". The next day, he "got topgt yards up and set the sails, unbent
the foresail to repair and brought another to the yard". And, on the next
day "the people at work repairing the Sails, the most of them having been
split in the late blowing weather". John Ravenhill was the sailmaker in
charge.
On 18 December, Cook named the land they could see "North Cape judging it to
be the northern extremity of this Country". Banks spotted something. "On a
rock pretty near us an Indian fort was seen through our glasses which we all
thought was encircled with a mud wall; if so tis the only one of the kind we
have seen".
Two days later, Banks had "hopes of a fair wind in the morn but they soon
left us and it began to blow hard with violent claps of thunder, on which we
again stood out to sea". The following day there was "a great swell from the
West". On the next day "the wind has come more to the Southward so that we
cannot come in with the land at all".
Christmas Time
On Christmas Eve Cook saw land "bearing SSE distant 8 Leagues... It proves
to be a small Island which we take to be the Three Kings discover'd by
Tasman: there are several smaller Islands or Rocks lying off the SW end and
one at the NE end". It was, wrote Banks, "Calm most of the Day: myself in a
boat shooting in which I had good success, killing cheifly several Gannets
or Solan Geese so like Europaean ones that they are hardly distinguishable
from them. As it was the humour of the ship to keep Christmas in the old
fashiond way it was resolvd of them to make a Goose pye for tomorrows
dinner".
On Christmas Day "Our Goose pye was eat with great approbation and in the
Evening all hands were as Drunk as our forefathers usd to be upon the like
occasion". Not surprisingly, the following day "all heads achd with
yesterday's debauch". Cook did not record the meal in his journal.
On 30 December, Cook "wore and stood to the SE and being pretty moderate we
set the Topsails close reef'd, but the SW Sea runs so high that the Ship
goes boddily to leeward. At 6 Saw the land bearing NE distant about 6
Leagues which we judge to be the same as Tasman calls Cape Maria van
Diemen".
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
As for the inhabitants, local Māori farmers stayed on the Island until the
late 1830s, then gave up on it and returned to the mainland.
TROPICS
JELIWAT brought some rain to southern parts of the Philippines.
The MJO a burst of extra energy in the tropics, is now weakening and leaving
the Pacific, so the next few weeks should be quieter than normal.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is strong near 3 to 5S as far as
Tuvalu/Tokelau and then in a line from Niue to Tahiti.
HIGHS and LOWS
HIGH H1 to east of NZ should continue moving off to east.
Low L1 is crossing NZ for Christmas then moving off to the east, followed by
clearing weather as H2 visits NZ mid-week.
Low L2 is expected to deepen off Sydney mid-week and cross NZ this weekend
as a trough.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check metbob.com to
see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
17 December 2023
Bob Blog 17 dec
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 17 December 2023
EL NINO dynamic
This El Nino episode may now be at its peak.
The atmospheric SOI values are relaxing..
The Ocean:
The parameter used from the ocean is based on the sea surface temperatures
in the equatorial eastern Pacific and called the NINO 3.4 SST anomaly.
Recent forecasts show that the Sea surface temperature anomalies in the Nino
3.4 area may have peaked and in JFM will start relaxing.
This El Nino has been twined with a positive IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) with
the combo shifting activity into the mid pacific.
However the IOD has gone thru a relaxation process recently
And so this En Nino may soon start shifting focus more to the east.
TROPICS
JASPER made landfall near Port Douglas, QLD bring damaging wind and rain.
JELIWAT has just formed eats of the Philippines
The MJO, a burst of extra energy in the tropics, is expected to peak over
the Pacific Ocean in the next two weeks.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is strong near Vanuatu to across
Fiji/Tonga /Samoa to Tahiti region. .
HIGHS and LOWS
Low L1 is expected to form off SE of Sydney by mid-week and travel off to
the SE.
High H1 to NE of North Island is quasi stationary or expected to slowly
creep westwards.
Hight H2 may travel across South Island and bloom east of South Island
briefly then fade.
Trough between H1 and H2 expected to cross North Island on Monday then fade
away.
High H3 to west of Tasmania by mid-week is expected to cross the South
Tasman Sea on Friday and reach east of South Island by Saturday.
Low L2 should form over inland QLD by mid -week and travel SE to be off
Sydney by weekend.
Low L3 is expected to spread SW onto New Caledonia by mid-week then continue
SW and fade in Tasman Sea.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check metbob.com to
see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 17 December 2023
EL NINO dynamic
This El Nino episode may now be at its peak.
The atmospheric SOI values are relaxing..
The Ocean:
The parameter used from the ocean is based on the sea surface temperatures
in the equatorial eastern Pacific and called the NINO 3.4 SST anomaly.
Recent forecasts show that the Sea surface temperature anomalies in the Nino
3.4 area may have peaked and in JFM will start relaxing.
This El Nino has been twined with a positive IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) with
the combo shifting activity into the mid pacific.
However the IOD has gone thru a relaxation process recently
And so this En Nino may soon start shifting focus more to the east.
TROPICS
JASPER made landfall near Port Douglas, QLD bring damaging wind and rain.
JELIWAT has just formed eats of the Philippines
The MJO, a burst of extra energy in the tropics, is expected to peak over
the Pacific Ocean in the next two weeks.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is strong near Vanuatu to across
Fiji/Tonga /Samoa to Tahiti region. .
HIGHS and LOWS
Low L1 is expected to form off SE of Sydney by mid-week and travel off to
the SE.
High H1 to NE of North Island is quasi stationary or expected to slowly
creep westwards.
Hight H2 may travel across South Island and bloom east of South Island
briefly then fade.
Trough between H1 and H2 expected to cross North Island on Monday then fade
away.
High H3 to west of Tasmania by mid-week is expected to cross the South
Tasman Sea on Friday and reach east of South Island by Saturday.
Low L2 should form over inland QLD by mid -week and travel SE to be off
Sydney by weekend.
Low L3 is expected to spread SW onto New Caledonia by mid-week then continue
SW and fade in Tasman Sea.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check metbob.com to
see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
10 December 2023
Bobgram 10 Dec
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 10 December 2023
2023 Ozone layer
During November, instead of doing it normal seasonal decay, the Ozone hole
area remained much the same, so that in early December it has been breaking
the December record.
The Antarctic ozone hole has been slow to fill in over recent years as
measured by atmosphere.copernicus.eu.
Some expect this may be related to global warming, which tends to cool
stratospheric temperatures and changes stratospheric chemistry and dynamics.
Ozone depletion is also believed to be influenced by greenhouse gas
emissions, volcanic and wildfires aerosols or even changes in the solar
cycle.
Another possibility for this year's weird behaviour is due to a residual of
water vapour in the stratosphere left over from last year's Hunga Tonga
-Hunga Ha'apai volcanic eruption.
Whatever the cause, these measurements are concerning.
TROPICS
JASPER formed over the Solomon Islands and is moving slowly westwards across
the Coral Sea and intensifying. It is expected to make landfall near
(probably north of) Cairns on Wednesday. Avoid.
The MJO, a burst of extra energy in the tropics, is expected to peak over
the Pacific Ocean in the next two weeks.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is strong from Solomon Islands to Samoa
to Tahiti.
JASPER is travelling westwards across the Coral Sea. A Low /trough L1 over
Tonga is expected to travel off to the south by mid-week a d another L2 near
Niue is expected to deepen the weekend and go south early next week. Avoid.
HIGHS and LOWS
Lows are expected to travel quickly across southern and eastern NZ: one on
Monday and another on Thursday, followed by large southerly swells in the
eastern Tasman Sea.
HIGH H1 in Tasman Sea by mid-weak is expected to cross northern NZ on
Thursday and Friday.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check metbob.com to
see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 10 December 2023
2023 Ozone layer
During November, instead of doing it normal seasonal decay, the Ozone hole
area remained much the same, so that in early December it has been breaking
the December record.
The Antarctic ozone hole has been slow to fill in over recent years as
measured by atmosphere.copernicus.eu.
Some expect this may be related to global warming, which tends to cool
stratospheric temperatures and changes stratospheric chemistry and dynamics.
Ozone depletion is also believed to be influenced by greenhouse gas
emissions, volcanic and wildfires aerosols or even changes in the solar
cycle.
Another possibility for this year's weird behaviour is due to a residual of
water vapour in the stratosphere left over from last year's Hunga Tonga
-Hunga Ha'apai volcanic eruption.
Whatever the cause, these measurements are concerning.
TROPICS
JASPER formed over the Solomon Islands and is moving slowly westwards across
the Coral Sea and intensifying. It is expected to make landfall near
(probably north of) Cairns on Wednesday. Avoid.
The MJO, a burst of extra energy in the tropics, is expected to peak over
the Pacific Ocean in the next two weeks.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is strong from Solomon Islands to Samoa
to Tahiti.
JASPER is travelling westwards across the Coral Sea. A Low /trough L1 over
Tonga is expected to travel off to the south by mid-week a d another L2 near
Niue is expected to deepen the weekend and go south early next week. Avoid.
HIGHS and LOWS
Lows are expected to travel quickly across southern and eastern NZ: one on
Monday and another on Thursday, followed by large southerly swells in the
eastern Tasman Sea.
HIGH H1 in Tasman Sea by mid-weak is expected to cross northern NZ on
Thursday and Friday.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check metbob.com to
see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
03 December 2023
Bob Blog 3 Dec
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 3 December 2023
A review of last month's weather
Here is a link to a YouTube clip giving an animated loop of the isobars and
streamlines in the South Pacific for the last month at youtu.be/DBf6tMA0pxw
During November the South Pacific weather pattern was something like the
game called FROGGER (available at froggerclassic.appspot.com/)
With Large trucks being the HIGHS migrating from west to east , from south
of Australia across the Tasman Sea and then stalling east of New Zealand.
The more nimble low systems are like the frogs trying to get from north to
south or south to north sometimes succeeding by sidestepping between the
Highs,
and sometimes being squashed. This rhythm is the typical spring pattern a
mix of pattern and chaos.
However El Nino is kicking in, along with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole.
The combined impact is to make a breeding ground for tropical lows near 5 to
10S and 170 E to 170W.
During November this only activated once around mid-month
And a similar pattern is happening this weekend.
The warmer than normal area that has been around NZ for much of this year is
getting smaller.
Average isobars for past month : The Siberian HIGH has developed quickly in
November. In the Southern Hemisphere, the subtropical ridge has shifted into
the Australian Bight and a heat trough has developed over mainland
Australia.
Pressure anomalies for past month : Falling pressures over Russia and rising
pressures over the roaring 40s in the Southern Hemisphere. Note the tendril
of low pressure from Fiji towards New Zealand,.
Zooming into the NZ area: The 1015 isobar has shifted south across
Australia.
TROPICS
RAMON appeared briefly in the NE Pacific and MICHAUNG is now fading off
India.
Depression92P is building slowly near the Solomon Islands.
It has a twin just north of the equator, defying the rule that rotating
winds are impossible at the equator:
The MJO, a burst of extra energy in the tropics, is expected to enter the
western Pacific over next few weeks.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is building especially with Tropical
depression 92P near Solomons.
This may become a cyclone and travel SW into Coral Sea, and maybe Tasman Sea
next week. AVOID.
HIGHS and LOWS
HIGH H1 well to east of NZ and south of Tahiti is acting as a block.
It should be replaced by HIGH H2 by end of the week.
LOW L1 crossed North Island on Sunday and is expected to linger to NE of NZ
until mid-week and then travel off to the southeast.
Associated trough is expected to cross Tonga around local Friday.
High H3 should form in Tasman Sea by mid-week and cross central NZ this
weekend.
A trough from Southern Ocean is expected to enter South Tasman Sea by Friday
and cross the South Island on Saturday followed by a trough and southerly
change early next week.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check metbob.com to
see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 3 December 2023
A review of last month's weather
Here is a link to a YouTube clip giving an animated loop of the isobars and
streamlines in the South Pacific for the last month at youtu.be/DBf6tMA0pxw
During November the South Pacific weather pattern was something like the
game called FROGGER (available at froggerclassic.appspot.com/)
With Large trucks being the HIGHS migrating from west to east , from south
of Australia across the Tasman Sea and then stalling east of New Zealand.
The more nimble low systems are like the frogs trying to get from north to
south or south to north sometimes succeeding by sidestepping between the
Highs,
and sometimes being squashed. This rhythm is the typical spring pattern a
mix of pattern and chaos.
However El Nino is kicking in, along with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole.
The combined impact is to make a breeding ground for tropical lows near 5 to
10S and 170 E to 170W.
During November this only activated once around mid-month
And a similar pattern is happening this weekend.
The warmer than normal area that has been around NZ for much of this year is
getting smaller.
Average isobars for past month : The Siberian HIGH has developed quickly in
November. In the Southern Hemisphere, the subtropical ridge has shifted into
the Australian Bight and a heat trough has developed over mainland
Australia.
Pressure anomalies for past month : Falling pressures over Russia and rising
pressures over the roaring 40s in the Southern Hemisphere. Note the tendril
of low pressure from Fiji towards New Zealand,.
Zooming into the NZ area: The 1015 isobar has shifted south across
Australia.
TROPICS
RAMON appeared briefly in the NE Pacific and MICHAUNG is now fading off
India.
Depression92P is building slowly near the Solomon Islands.
It has a twin just north of the equator, defying the rule that rotating
winds are impossible at the equator:
The MJO, a burst of extra energy in the tropics, is expected to enter the
western Pacific over next few weeks.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is building especially with Tropical
depression 92P near Solomons.
This may become a cyclone and travel SW into Coral Sea, and maybe Tasman Sea
next week. AVOID.
HIGHS and LOWS
HIGH H1 well to east of NZ and south of Tahiti is acting as a block.
It should be replaced by HIGH H2 by end of the week.
LOW L1 crossed North Island on Sunday and is expected to linger to NE of NZ
until mid-week and then travel off to the southeast.
Associated trough is expected to cross Tonga around local Friday.
High H3 should form in Tasman Sea by mid-week and cross central NZ this
weekend.
A trough from Southern Ocean is expected to enter South Tasman Sea by Friday
and cross the South Island on Saturday followed by a trough and southerly
change early next week.
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