Bob Blog

Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

Compiled Sun 27 Dec 2020

 

The calendar is about to turn from 2020 to 2021, and to mark the occasion many sing Auld Lang Syne

--- there is one verse with the English translation as follows:

 

We two have paddled in the stream,

from morning sun till dine;

But seas between us broad have roared

since auld lang syne.

 

So, here’s to a cup of kindness between us for the sake of the turn of the year.

 

Also, by way of a late Christmas present, here’s a way you can get access to the Fiji Meteorological Service’s latest Oceanic forecast (as a text messages) so those of you in the vulnerable zone and keep up-to-date:

Send an email to query@saildocs.com, no SUBJECT needed, with message

SEND http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/10140.txt

And for Tropical cyclone discussion use SEND https://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/20036.txt

 

MJO

The MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) is a wave of enhanced tropical activity that travels eastwards around the world. It is expected to be too weak to have much influence over the next few weeks.

The Tropics

TC CHALANE is about to make landfall over Madagascar.

There are also some zone s of high potential for tropical cyclone formation around eastern Indonesia/Papua New Guinea this week.

WEATHER ZONES

SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.

SPCZ stretches from Solomon Islands to Vanuatu to between Fiji and Samoa.

A passing trough is expected to affect Tonga on Monday and move east onto Niue and maybe the southern cooks during the week.

Another tropical trough is expected to form off Queensland coast on Wednesday and move onto New Caledonia on Friday/Saturday.

 

Subtropical ridge (STR)

HIGH 1022 in Tasman Sea is expected to fade over northern NZ by Thursday.

HIGH south of Tasmania on Friday is expected to travel to south of NZ by early next week.

 

NZ/Tasman troughs

Low 10004 is expected to linger east of the North Island for much of this week.

Trough in western Tasman Sea today is expected to travel east and reach South Island from late Tuesday and fade over North Island on Wednesday.

Another front from the Southern Ocean is expected to reach South Island on Thursday and then deepen into a low over central NZ on Friday to Sunday.

 

Fiji/Tonga to NZ: Weather looks OK for a departure this week.

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If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.

Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/

Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).

Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.

Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 6427 7762212

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Bob Blog 20 Dec

Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

Compiled Sun 20 Dec 2020

 

MJO

The MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) is a wave of enhanced tropical activity that travels eastwards around the world. It takes a few weeks to a month to cross the Pacific. Its active (blue) has been over northern Australia and is expected to travel across the South Pacific over the next few weeks as shown in the attached plot of OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation).

 

Cyclone outlook:

Since YASA and ZAZU have disturbed the erm surface waters around Fiji and Tonga /Niue this REDUCES the risk of cyclone formation in these areas.

 

To check the latest tropical cyclone weather discussion from NZ MetService, click on

www.metservice.com/warnings/tropical-cyclone-activity

or from Fiji MetService

www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/20036.txt is a text file

This can be downloaded via an email to query@saildocs.com

No subject needed, with message

SEND https://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/20036.txt

 

The Tropics

TC ZAZU went southeast over open water, but TC YASA build to category 5 and then made landfall over Vanua Levu, Fiji last Thursday night and travelled across the Lau group . It brought devasting damage, within a week of Christmas. Please remember the victims in your Christmas /New Year budget (fund raising is still being arranged).

 

There has aloe en flooding in Samoa, see

www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/433136/major-flooding-in-parts-of-samoa

YASA is now fading as it travels Southwest.

 

WEATHER ZONES

SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.

SPCZ stretches from Solomon Islands to Tuvalu/Samoa area whilst YASA does its own thing.

 

Subtropical ridge (STR)

HIGH 1022 east of NZ travelling along 40S extends a ridge back onto North island until Wednesday.

Another HIGH is expected to spread over Tasmania on Friday and reach northern NZ early next week.

 

NZ/Tasman troughs

Trough from Tasman Sea crossing South Island on Monday.

LOW offshore Sydney on Tuesday travelling east across Tasman reaching NZ on Wednesday /Thursday followed by a SW /S flow on Friday/Saturday.

 

Fiji/Tonga to NZ: Stay put until YASA fades on Thursday.

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If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.

Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/

Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).

Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.

Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 6427 7762212

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Bob Blog 13 Dec

Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

Compiled Sun 13 Dec 2020

 

Outlook for PRADA Americas Cup AC75s World Series and PRADA Christmas Race on Hauraki Gulf 17-20 December.

There should be good racing and good variety of weather for the World Series with moderate SW wind on Thursday, light variable wind of Friday, and moderate NE winds on Saturday.

 

As for the Christmas racing on Sunday 20 December--- that may be exciting stuff, deepening on the progress of a system from the tropics-- weather forecast will need updating closer to the day.

 

MJO

The MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) is a wave of enhanced tropical activity that travels eastwards around the world. It takes a few weeks to a month to cross the Pacific and is now over northern Australia.

 

The Tropics

Tropical Depression 01F is located around 350 bn N of Fiji and is very likely to deepen into the first tropical cyclone of the region for the season by Monday, between Vanuatu and Fiji. It is expected to travel slowly south this week. Its outlook is still uncertain but likely to go south and weaken in the Tasman Sea/NZ area from 18 to 21 December.

 

Tropical Depression 03F is located around 140nm south of Pagp Pago , It has a moderate chance of deepening into a tropical cyclone between Samoa and Niue by Monday and should travel southeastwards.

 

WEATHER ZONES

SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.

SPCZ stretches from Solomon Islands to Tuvalu/Samoa area whist the tropical cyclones do their own thing.

 

Subtropical ridge (STR)

HIGH 1028 in central Tasman Sea today is expected to weaken to 1018 as it crosses NZ on Thu 17 Dec and then join another High travelling east along 40 to 45S to east of South Island.

 

NZ/Tasman troughs

LOW offshore Brisbane area on Monday expected to turn into a trough and go inland on Tuesday.

Tropical feature from Fiji area is expected to come south and affect Tasman Sea /NZ area from 18 to 21 Dec.

 

Fiji/Tonga to NZ: Stay put this week

 

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If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.

Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/

Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).

Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.

Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 6427 7762212

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

 

Bob Blog 6 Dec

Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

Compiled Sun 06 Dec 2020

 

REVIEW OF THE LAST MONTH (November 2020)

La NINA (the cool eastern equatorial Pacific) is well marked, and there are warmer-than-normal seas over the Southwest Pacific. This means the cyclone season is likely to more active near the dateline.

The sub-tropical ridge in the southern hemisphere has weakened and the westerly isobars of the Southern Ocean have widened, deepened and shifted north.

Zooming into the NZ area, and comparing monthly anomalies from last month with now, the sub-tropical ridge has weakened - the 1015 isobar has drifted from 45/50S to 30S over Australia and New Zealand.

 

The Tropics

Things are quiet for now with no cyclones around but some potential areas for formation around Philippines/Indonesia/Northern Australia

 

WEATHER ZONES

SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.

SPCZ is in its normal position from Solomon Islands to Samoa to Southern Cooks.

A passing trough is expected over Southern Cooks area early in the week, and another over New Caledonia mid-week and again another over the weekend.

According to the GFS model, a tropical low is likely over northern Vanuatu from late in the week,,,, worth watching out for.

 

Subtropical ridge (STR)

HIGH 1018-1022 over northern NZ is expected to travel off to east along 30S.

Next HIGH is expected to enter Tasman Sea mid-week and travel east along 35S reaching northern NZ late in the week

 

NZ/Tasman troughs

LOW has deepened to 965 at 50S south of Tasmania and is expected to move off to southeast by Tuesday with associated troughs crossing South Island.

Low is expected to form off Sydney on local Monday and travel east southeast across the Tasman Sea reaching central New Zealand by mid-week 1002 hPa.

Another Low is expected to form in central Tasman Sea around the end of the week and move over South Island early next week.

 

Fiji/Tonga to NZ:

Looks Ok to head off this week, but need to reach NZ by Sun 20 Dec.

 

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If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.

Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/

Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).

Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.

Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 6427 7762212

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