Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 30 October 2022
The pre cyclone season migration can be seen on PredictWind/tools/AIS today
The climax of their voyage was the passing trough last night
As seen at www.meteo.nc/nouvelle-caledonie/observations/images-satellite
This trough has vented a lot of moisture from the South Pacific convergence
zone and has been built on the western should of a BFH (big fat High)
As seen on weather map from metservice.com
This relay of energy from the tropics to the mid-latitudes may have been
triggered or helped by a recent active part of the MJO into the Pacific,
albeit a weak one.
MJO stands for the Madden Julian Oscillation, a wave of extra energy in the
tropics that travels along equatorial latitudes from the Indian Ocean to the
Pacific Ocean. Each MJO takes around 30 to 60 days to make this trip, and
around a week to cross a region.
A good method to track the MJO is to watch the bubbly blue zones in an OLR
(out-going longwave radiation)map, as shown at
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/foregfs.shtml
This map shows a blue sone moving into the Coral sea in the last few days,
then forecast to fade.
It seems that this MJO might not trigger a tropical cyclone , and since they
are a month or more apart , we may be bold enough , perhaps, to suggest that
there may be no tropical cyclones in the South Pacific until the next MJO
in December. This shouldn't be taken as a forecast or outlook and has as
much merit as "reading tea leaves", so treat it with caution.
As we enter into the nominal start of the this new cyclone season on Tuesday
I shall mention the research predictions from the New Caledonian
meteorologist at www.meteo.nc/nouvelle-caledonie/cyclone/coin-des-experts
TROPICS
NALGAE travelled across the Philippines last week with a death toll of 72
from slips and flooding, see
www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/29/storm-nalgae-floods-and-landslides-in-
philippines-kill-at-least-72
WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ The South Pacific Convergence zone
The SPCZ is weak across the Solomon Islands and north of Vanuatu and active
in patches from Fiji to French Polynesia.
The patch over Fiji tonight is expected to weaken and the patch over
southern cooks may deepen into a low by end of the week. Avoid.
HIGHS and LOWS
HIGH H1 east of Aotearoa NZ is a BFH (Big Fat High) and should stay put all
week.
HIGH H2 in north Tasman Sea is expected to travel east along 30S and weaken.
Trough between H1 and H2 is on its western shoulder has been active with
lightning for the past day and is expected to travel slowly east being
pushed by H2.
Low L1 in Australian Bight is expected to travel east across South Tasman
Sea mid -week and across South Island by end of the week, preceded by a
vigorous NW to Westerly flow and followed by a southerly flow and H3 from
central Australia.
After that trough has cleared Fiji it should be Ok to set sail for NZ.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
30 October 2022
23 October 2022
Bob Blog 23 Oct
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 23 October 2022
The "SUCKER PUNCH" pattern
Friday 21 October, and a cold front went past Auckland in the morning
followed by showers in a southwest onshore flow from the Tasman Sea.
During the day locals watched the western horizon to time these showers.
By afternoon, the skies were clearing, and people started planning an
evening BBQ to celebrate the start of their only spring long weekend (thanks
to Labour Day Monday). Just as they gathered outside a sucker punch of wind
and rain arrived from the eastern horizon. How can this happen?
The "sucker punch" is a reasonably common Auckland weather pattern and is
explained by its position north of the main mountain ranges of Aotearoa.
At 7am the weather map shows the passing front is leading in a HIGH
crossing the south Tasman Sea.
At 1pm air is diverted northwards along the eastern side of the main
mountain ranges, and this creates a zone of falling pressure in the lee to
west of Taranaki
Then at 7pm the air that has freshly arrived in the Bay of Plenty and still
has the angular momentum it had when south of the mountains is finally free
of the mountains and gets kicked to the left by Coriolis and sucked in
towards that zone of falling pressure. The sucker punch.
TROPICS
The latest cyclone activity report is at zoom.earth and tropic.ssec.wisc.edu
and Tropical Cyclone Potential is from
www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html
Depression Twentyfive is approaching Vietnam and Cyclone Roslyn is moving
on-to Mexico.
WEATHER ZONES
The SPCZ stretches from Coral Sea/ New Caledonia/ Vanuatu to Fiji then
across Tonga to Sothern Cooks. Tropical Low L1 is forming over Vanuatu and
expected to travel east across Fiji on Tues/Wed. Another tropical Low L2 is
forming between Southern Cooks and Austral islands and expected to travel
SE. Avoid these.
After L1 has cleared Fiji should be Ok to set sail for NZ.
HIGHS and LOWS
A southerly change travels northeast across NZ on Monday, followed by HIGH
H1 on Tuesday. H1 then is expected to travel off to the east along 35S.
Low L3 has formed offshore of Bundaberg and is expected to travel south
along the East Aus coast to Eden by mid-week and then southeast across the
south Tasman sea.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 23 October 2022
The "SUCKER PUNCH" pattern
Friday 21 October, and a cold front went past Auckland in the morning
followed by showers in a southwest onshore flow from the Tasman Sea.
During the day locals watched the western horizon to time these showers.
By afternoon, the skies were clearing, and people started planning an
evening BBQ to celebrate the start of their only spring long weekend (thanks
to Labour Day Monday). Just as they gathered outside a sucker punch of wind
and rain arrived from the eastern horizon. How can this happen?
The "sucker punch" is a reasonably common Auckland weather pattern and is
explained by its position north of the main mountain ranges of Aotearoa.
At 7am the weather map shows the passing front is leading in a HIGH
crossing the south Tasman Sea.
At 1pm air is diverted northwards along the eastern side of the main
mountain ranges, and this creates a zone of falling pressure in the lee to
west of Taranaki
Then at 7pm the air that has freshly arrived in the Bay of Plenty and still
has the angular momentum it had when south of the mountains is finally free
of the mountains and gets kicked to the left by Coriolis and sucked in
towards that zone of falling pressure. The sucker punch.
TROPICS
The latest cyclone activity report is at zoom.earth and tropic.ssec.wisc.edu
and Tropical Cyclone Potential is from
www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html
Depression Twentyfive is approaching Vietnam and Cyclone Roslyn is moving
on-to Mexico.
WEATHER ZONES
The SPCZ stretches from Coral Sea/ New Caledonia/ Vanuatu to Fiji then
across Tonga to Sothern Cooks. Tropical Low L1 is forming over Vanuatu and
expected to travel east across Fiji on Tues/Wed. Another tropical Low L2 is
forming between Southern Cooks and Austral islands and expected to travel
SE. Avoid these.
After L1 has cleared Fiji should be Ok to set sail for NZ.
HIGHS and LOWS
A southerly change travels northeast across NZ on Monday, followed by HIGH
H1 on Tuesday. H1 then is expected to travel off to the east along 35S.
Low L3 has formed offshore of Bundaberg and is expected to travel south
along the East Aus coast to Eden by mid-week and then southeast across the
south Tasman sea.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
16 October 2022
Bob Blog 16 Oct
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 16 October 2022
The waning moon of October---- its Palolo season again.
Palolo (in Fijian: Balolo) is the edible portion of a worm that grows in
shallow coral reefs.
The mating season of the palolo follows the lunar cycle - typically on the
seventh night after the October full moon (the one after the equinox)
Under this waning moon the palolo worm will detach its lower half, where its
reproductive organs are, and this "tail" floats to the surface of the water
and releases eggs or sperm in a mass synchronised spawning event spread by
this special tide.
This South Seas caviar tastes like a combo of abalone and oysters. It
deteriorates quickly in sunlight, so gatherers need to collect it in the
pre-dawn hours. "It's the early bird". Many social traditions are triggered
by this event
One of the traditional things triggered by the Palolo season is the annual
pondering about the coming cyclone season. In the island people try and link
what they can observe at this time with what might come in the next few
months. So, if it's a great mango season that may be taken as an indicator
of a possible nasty cyclone season.
This year the boffin at BoM (Australia's Bureau of meteorology) are saying
MORE
The full report is at www.bom.gov.au/climate/cyclones/australia/
They say this is linked to the current La Nina. And that the first cyclone
this season may be "early" and occur in November.
MetService NZ and Fiji Met Service issue the official cyclone warnings over
the South Pacific, and they have joined with NIWA of NZ to issue the
following maps.
The full report is at
niwa.co.nz/climate/southwest-pacific-tropical-cyclone-outlook/southwest-paci
fic-tropical-cyclone-outlook-october-2022
They also point the finger at La Nina, which typically shifts the
subtropical ridge southwards and thus shifts the cyclone risk westwards,
towards the Coral Sea.
They do note that this La Nina is expected to weaken and may be neutral late
in the season, and that can change things.
During the cyclone season there are usually quiet spells and then bursts of
energy. The Madden Julian Oscillation can help us identify the energy bursts
a week or more ahead, and I'll comment more on that in a few weeks,
TROPICS
The latest cyclone activity report is at zoom.earth and tropic.ssec.wisc.edu
and Tropical Cyclone Potential is from
www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html
Cyclone NESAT is approaching Vietnam and expected to peak on Tuesday.
WEATHER ZONES
The SPCZ stretches from PNG across Solomons to Vanuatu to north of Fiji.
This thins out then thickens into a convergnc3 zone hovering around the
Society islands.
A passing trough is expected to travel eastwards to south of Tonga by
mid-week
HIGHS and LOWS
High H1 east of Aotearoa NZ tonight is travelling away to the ENE.
A showery low L1 tonight in the Tasman Sea is expected to cross North
Island on Monday and wander off to the east connected to the trough south of
Tonga.
HIGH H2 is expected to travel east across the Tasman Sea and fade there late
in the week.
Low L3 is expected to travel late this week from south of NZ to east of NZ
bringing a cold southerly in its wake on Friday. Avoid.
Then High H3 is expected to travel east across the central Tasman Sea and
reach central and northern NZ for the long weekend.
H2 and H3 offer good opportunities for sailing from tropics to NZ and
Australia.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 16 October 2022
The waning moon of October---- its Palolo season again.
Palolo (in Fijian: Balolo) is the edible portion of a worm that grows in
shallow coral reefs.
The mating season of the palolo follows the lunar cycle - typically on the
seventh night after the October full moon (the one after the equinox)
Under this waning moon the palolo worm will detach its lower half, where its
reproductive organs are, and this "tail" floats to the surface of the water
and releases eggs or sperm in a mass synchronised spawning event spread by
this special tide.
This South Seas caviar tastes like a combo of abalone and oysters. It
deteriorates quickly in sunlight, so gatherers need to collect it in the
pre-dawn hours. "It's the early bird". Many social traditions are triggered
by this event
One of the traditional things triggered by the Palolo season is the annual
pondering about the coming cyclone season. In the island people try and link
what they can observe at this time with what might come in the next few
months. So, if it's a great mango season that may be taken as an indicator
of a possible nasty cyclone season.
This year the boffin at BoM (Australia's Bureau of meteorology) are saying
MORE
The full report is at www.bom.gov.au/climate/cyclones/australia/
They say this is linked to the current La Nina. And that the first cyclone
this season may be "early" and occur in November.
MetService NZ and Fiji Met Service issue the official cyclone warnings over
the South Pacific, and they have joined with NIWA of NZ to issue the
following maps.
The full report is at
niwa.co.nz/climate/southwest-pacific-tropical-cyclone-outlook/southwest-paci
fic-tropical-cyclone-outlook-october-2022
They also point the finger at La Nina, which typically shifts the
subtropical ridge southwards and thus shifts the cyclone risk westwards,
towards the Coral Sea.
They do note that this La Nina is expected to weaken and may be neutral late
in the season, and that can change things.
During the cyclone season there are usually quiet spells and then bursts of
energy. The Madden Julian Oscillation can help us identify the energy bursts
a week or more ahead, and I'll comment more on that in a few weeks,
TROPICS
The latest cyclone activity report is at zoom.earth and tropic.ssec.wisc.edu
and Tropical Cyclone Potential is from
www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html
Cyclone NESAT is approaching Vietnam and expected to peak on Tuesday.
WEATHER ZONES
The SPCZ stretches from PNG across Solomons to Vanuatu to north of Fiji.
This thins out then thickens into a convergnc3 zone hovering around the
Society islands.
A passing trough is expected to travel eastwards to south of Tonga by
mid-week
HIGHS and LOWS
High H1 east of Aotearoa NZ tonight is travelling away to the ENE.
A showery low L1 tonight in the Tasman Sea is expected to cross North
Island on Monday and wander off to the east connected to the trough south of
Tonga.
HIGH H2 is expected to travel east across the Tasman Sea and fade there late
in the week.
Low L3 is expected to travel late this week from south of NZ to east of NZ
bringing a cold southerly in its wake on Friday. Avoid.
Then High H3 is expected to travel east across the central Tasman Sea and
reach central and northern NZ for the long weekend.
H2 and H3 offer good opportunities for sailing from tropics to NZ and
Australia.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
09 October 2022
Bob Blog
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 9 October 2022
Back in August I talked about Blaise Pascal's famous experiment showing how
air pressure changes with altitude at
metbob.wordpress.com/2022/08/29/bob-blog-28-aug/
During the 18th century barometers become useful as a tool for forecasting
weather on sailing ships
and then in the 19th century…. Robert FitzRoy introduced weather
forecasting to newspapers
Born 1805, Robert FitzRoy
Fourth Great-grandson of Charles II
Protégé of Francis Beaufort
Age 12: joined Navy Academy
Age 19: passed Royal Naval exams, first ever to achieve 100%.
Age 23: Made Captain of "The Beagle"
Age 26-31: Skipper of BEAGLE with Charles Darwin's famous voyage to
Galapagos
1843-1845 2nd Governor of NZ
1853: First International Meteorological Conference at Brussels
1854: Meteorological Statist to the Board of Trade.
1857: Christophorus Buys Ballot shows mathematically
that wind circulates around air pressure centres.
1859: Storm sinks the "ROYAL CHARTER".
"Origin of Species" published
Age 55: Rear-Admiral FitzRoy
Daily weather maps in 'The Times"
Age 58: Publishes "The Weather Book"
1865: decommissioned and takes own life
.TROPICS
The latest cyclone activity report is at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and Tropical
Cyclone Potential is from www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html
Cyclone JULIA is about to travel from the Atlantic to the Pacific. Cyclone
BALITA is the second named storm of the 2022/23 South Indian Ocean season
which usually starts around 15 November. These cyclones have been confirmed
by scatterometer.
WEATHER ZONES
The SPCZ stretches from PNG across Solomons to Vanuatu and briefly visits
Fiji and Tonga. A low L1 is forming tonight south of Tonga and expected to
travel SE this week. Another Low L2 is expected to form near Vanuatu by
Wednesday and travel SE to be to NE of North Island by weekend. Avoid.
High H1 east of NZ tonight is travelling away to the ENE.
A trough tonight in the Tasman Sea is expected to weaken as it travels east
across Aoteroa NZ on Mon and Tuesday and linger over the north on Wednesday.
HIGH H2 is expected to follow this trough across the Tasman Sea on Tuesday
and cross the South Island on Wed and Thu, to then be to south of L2, with
enhanced easterly winds onto Coromandel/Gisborne. Avoid
L1 and L2 make travel between Fiji and NZ hazardous until after 14 October.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 9 October 2022
Back in August I talked about Blaise Pascal's famous experiment showing how
air pressure changes with altitude at
metbob.wordpress.com/2022/08/29/bob-blog-28-aug/
During the 18th century barometers become useful as a tool for forecasting
weather on sailing ships
and then in the 19th century…. Robert FitzRoy introduced weather
forecasting to newspapers
Born 1805, Robert FitzRoy
Fourth Great-grandson of Charles II
Protégé of Francis Beaufort
Age 12: joined Navy Academy
Age 19: passed Royal Naval exams, first ever to achieve 100%.
Age 23: Made Captain of "The Beagle"
Age 26-31: Skipper of BEAGLE with Charles Darwin's famous voyage to
Galapagos
1843-1845 2nd Governor of NZ
1853: First International Meteorological Conference at Brussels
1854: Meteorological Statist to the Board of Trade.
1857: Christophorus Buys Ballot shows mathematically
that wind circulates around air pressure centres.
1859: Storm sinks the "ROYAL CHARTER".
"Origin of Species" published
Age 55: Rear-Admiral FitzRoy
Daily weather maps in 'The Times"
Age 58: Publishes "The Weather Book"
1865: decommissioned and takes own life
.TROPICS
The latest cyclone activity report is at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and Tropical
Cyclone Potential is from www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html
Cyclone JULIA is about to travel from the Atlantic to the Pacific. Cyclone
BALITA is the second named storm of the 2022/23 South Indian Ocean season
which usually starts around 15 November. These cyclones have been confirmed
by scatterometer.
WEATHER ZONES
The SPCZ stretches from PNG across Solomons to Vanuatu and briefly visits
Fiji and Tonga. A low L1 is forming tonight south of Tonga and expected to
travel SE this week. Another Low L2 is expected to form near Vanuatu by
Wednesday and travel SE to be to NE of North Island by weekend. Avoid.
High H1 east of NZ tonight is travelling away to the ENE.
A trough tonight in the Tasman Sea is expected to weaken as it travels east
across Aoteroa NZ on Mon and Tuesday and linger over the north on Wednesday.
HIGH H2 is expected to follow this trough across the Tasman Sea on Tuesday
and cross the South Island on Wed and Thu, to then be to south of L2, with
enhanced easterly winds onto Coromandel/Gisborne. Avoid
L1 and L2 make travel between Fiji and NZ hazardous until after 14 October.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
02 October 2022
bob blob 2 oct 2022
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 2 October 2022
REVIEW OF THE LAST MONTH (September 2022)
Sea Surface temperature anomalies from psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.shtml
The main pattern remains the same as in July with the cool waters of La Nina
along the Eastern Equatorial Pacific surrounded by zones of warmer than
normal conditions in the north and south Pacific.
Average isobars for past month
From www.psl.noaa.gov/map/images/fnl/slp_30b.fnl.html
This pattern is much the same as at the end of August.
Pressure anomolies for past month (below)
The main change in the past month has been the appearance of lower than
normal pressures over and around North America.
Zooming into the NZ area
The subtropical ridge is slightly weaker east of Aotearoa NZ otherwise the
pattern is very similar. .
.TROPICS
The latest cyclone activity report is at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and Tropical
Cyclone Potential is from www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html
Cyclone IAN made historically damaging landfall over Florida last week with
a death toll over 20 and still rising.
Here is a clip showing four vessels drifting down along a street at Fort
Myers on the SW tip of Florida twitter.com/i/status/1575213169001127936
Tonight ORLENE is about to make landfall on west coast of Mexico and ROKE is
moving away from Japan.
WEATHER ZONES
The SPCZ stretches from PNG across Solomons to Vanuatu and to a trough that
lingers over the Fiji area this week and may form a low L2 northwest of Fiji
by end of week.
HIGHS and LOWS
High H1 lingering south of Tahiti and slowly travelling East along 30S.
Low L1 crossing Aotearoa NZ tonight followed by a cold southwest flow for a
few days, with a trough extending back to Fiji.
HIGH H2 over 1030hPa travelling northeast across southern Tasman Sea and
central Aotearoa from Wed to Sat, with a squash zone of enhanced easterly
winds o its northern side.
Low L2 is expected to form northwest of Fiji this weekend as H2 moves off to
east of Aoteroa.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 2 October 2022
REVIEW OF THE LAST MONTH (September 2022)
Sea Surface temperature anomalies from psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.shtml
The main pattern remains the same as in July with the cool waters of La Nina
along the Eastern Equatorial Pacific surrounded by zones of warmer than
normal conditions in the north and south Pacific.
Average isobars for past month
From www.psl.noaa.gov/map/images/fnl/slp_30b.fnl.html
This pattern is much the same as at the end of August.
Pressure anomolies for past month (below)
The main change in the past month has been the appearance of lower than
normal pressures over and around North America.
Zooming into the NZ area
The subtropical ridge is slightly weaker east of Aotearoa NZ otherwise the
pattern is very similar. .
.TROPICS
The latest cyclone activity report is at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and Tropical
Cyclone Potential is from www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html
Cyclone IAN made historically damaging landfall over Florida last week with
a death toll over 20 and still rising.
Here is a clip showing four vessels drifting down along a street at Fort
Myers on the SW tip of Florida twitter.com/i/status/1575213169001127936
Tonight ORLENE is about to make landfall on west coast of Mexico and ROKE is
moving away from Japan.
WEATHER ZONES
The SPCZ stretches from PNG across Solomons to Vanuatu and to a trough that
lingers over the Fiji area this week and may form a low L2 northwest of Fiji
by end of week.
HIGHS and LOWS
High H1 lingering south of Tahiti and slowly travelling East along 30S.
Low L1 crossing Aotearoa NZ tonight followed by a cold southwest flow for a
few days, with a trough extending back to Fiji.
HIGH H2 over 1030hPa travelling northeast across southern Tasman Sea and
central Aotearoa from Wed to Sat, with a squash zone of enhanced easterly
winds o its northern side.
Low L2 is expected to form northwest of Fiji this weekend as H2 moves off to
east of Aoteroa.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
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