Bobgram

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific. Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world. Compiled 01 November 2026 A review of last month's weather Here is a link to a YouTube clip giving an animated loop of the isobars and streamlines For last month is at youtu.be/6j7UxmBp9a8 Several anticyclones entered the south Tasman then travelled northeast and then faded into the subtropical ridge along 30S. This pattern repeated 1-9 Oct and 17 to 25 Oct . There continue to be several near equatorial lows , a facet of this El Nino. TC WATI opened the cyclone season 17-19 Oct, and damaged Aitutaki. Sea Surface temperature anomalies from psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.shtml El Nino 's warmth in the eastern equatorial pacific continues, and that cooler patch on its southwest side over Southwest pacific is bringing dry conditions . A time/longitude plot shows anomalies now getting over +4 degrees C This is record breaking and has gone off the scale. Average isobars for past month In the northern hemisphere the Siberian anticyclone is well set heralding an early winter there. The Tasman HIGH central pressure has weakened a little, but its extent has spread south over NZ. The anomaly pressure pattern hasn't changed much in the past month. New Zealand Details The 1010 isobar has shifted to south of NZ. There are more isobars closer together south of the saddle point between NZ and Chile. The SAM Southern Annualar Mode ( as shown using the AAO) was neutral in October and forecast to be positive for much of November See www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/aao.gefs.spr d2.png TROPICS . Super Cyclone Arnab struck India's Andhra Pradesh coast with winds near 80 mph, killing at least seven people while damaging homes and swamping farmlands. . Former Super Typhoon Champi drenched a wide area of Taiwan, Japan and Korea after weakening from its earlier status as the strongest storm of the year so far. . Super Typhoon In-Fa formed near the Marshall Islands but remained far from any significant land areas. . Hurricane Vance weakened to a tropical depression before soaking Mexico's Sinaloa state. . Tropical Storm Gonzalo formed briefly WEATHER ZONES L1 low south of Austral Island sis moving off to SE but generating a burst of swell for them. High H1 east of NZ tonight is expected to travel off to travel slowly east to southeast. It has a squash zone of enhanced trade winds that may affect Tahiti to Tonga. A small trough is expected to produce some thundery showers SE of New Caledonia on Monday and these then go off to the Se and fade away. Low L2 is expected to enter the Tasman Sea from the west as a thundery trough on Tuesday and then form on Wednesday. It should then travel southeast and get east of South Island by Saturday. HIGH H2 is expected to expand into Aussie Bight during the week Outlook for Northland: a front around 9-10Nov then around 13-15Nov >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> If you would like more details about your voyage, check metbob.com Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/ Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom). Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz. Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>