Bobgram

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.

Compiled 08 Mar 2026

The rate of global warming jumped in 2013.
A recent publication in  Geophysical Research letters as at
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025GL118804
by G.Foster and  S.Rahmstorf   have removed from the temperature records the
three main natural variable factors ( El Nino, volcanism and solar
variation) 
to produce smoother trends. This smoothed data shows there has been an
acceleration in warming with a notable jump around 2013.

There is an observable increase in the Earth's energy imbalance,
as detected by the CERES project and published at
berkeleyearth.org/global-temperature-report-for-2023/

TROPICS
Cyclone Urmil passed over the open waters of the Pacific, well to the south
of Fiji and Tonga. • An unnamed tropical storm formed south of Java.

WEATHER ZONES
For the New Zealand area: On Monday, the front attached to L1 is expected to
be followed by cold southerly conditions.  Then Tuesday to Thursday should
have light winds with the passage of H1 .  Then another front on Friday
attached to L3 followed by SW winds.

For Northern Tasman Sea and Queensland to Kermadecs: That tropical Low L2 is
expected to track steadily from 20S to 30S with strong winds and heavy rain.
Avoid.

For other tropical areas: this is expected to be a relatively quiet week.

For South half of Australia:  That monsoonal trough last week combined with
that front attached to L1 and brought heavy rain to Adelaide area.   This
week's front is expected from Tuesday to Thursday attached to L3 and is
expected to be followed by strong SE winds and 3m swells as far north as
Lord Howe by Friday 13/Sat 14 March.  Then High H3 should spread across
Aussie Bight bringing easterly flow to Australia.  

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