Bobgram

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific. Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos. these ideas are from the patterned world. Compiled 18 October 2026 Welcome to an early start to this new cyclone season. TC WATI is visiting Southern Cooks on their Sunday. Earth Sciences New Zealand is predicting a busy cyclone activity for those parts of the Pacific east of the date line, especially for French Polynesia. This report was developed with contributions from New Zealand's MetService, the University of Newcastle in Australia, and various Pacific Islands met services . For north, central and northeast areas - including Samoa, Tokelau, French Polynesia and parts of Kiribati - there is an elevated risk. . For north of the Coral Sea and the west central area of the southwest Pacific, including Fiji and Tonga, near normal activity is forecast. . For New Caledonia and Vanuatu - there is a normal to reduced risk. The main factor this year is a very strong El Nino. This is a climate driver that affects tropical weather and it is breaking records this year And here is what the Quasi Biennial Oscillation QBO was doing in those years (diagram) In a strong El Nino, the rising air of the equatorial WALKER circulation has shifted and is now near the dateline This puts French Polynesia downstream of a zone of rising motion Henec the following evaluations of possible cyclone activity for the coming season: https://www.earthsciences.nz/news/normal-to-above-normal-tropical-cyclone-ac tivity-expected-for-the-southwest-pacific TROPICS .Hurricane Isaias raked northern Florida's Gulf Coast with 105- mph winds, killing eight people and cutting power to nearly a million customers. The storm also unleashed destructive flooding and tornadoes across the southeastern United States. . Hurricane Simon battered Mexico's Pacific coast, killing one person. . Tropical Storm Rachel brought deadly flooding to Baja California and damaged seaside homes in Southern California with huge waves. . TC CHAMPI is heading for Taiwan. WEATHER ZONES Weather Zones Mid-week GFS model showing isobars, winds, waves (purple), rain (red), MT (Monsoonal trough), STR (Subtropical Ridge), SPCZ (South Pacific Convergence Zone) CZ (Convergence Zone) SPCZ is mainly north of 10S and rather weak. TC WATI gets close to Southern Cook Islands on local Sunday and then is expected to move off to the southeast. High H1 is expected to travel slowly NE across the Tasman Sea and then travel east along 35S early next week. This offers a good opportunity for sailing from the tropics to Australia or New Zealand. It also enhances the easterly winds between Fiji and Vanuatu and about Samoa. Low L2 is slowly following H1 and is front is, at this stage, expected to reach Brisbane to Northland around Thu 29 Oct , ending this good-looking window for sailing from tropics to Australia/New Zealand. After this and a few days of southerly swell the next HIGH is expected to enter the Tasman Se around 30/31 Oct, opening another window for sailing out of the tropics. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> If you would like more details about your voyage, check metbob.com Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/ Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom). Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz. Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>