Bobgram

Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific. Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world. Compiled 21 June2026 Overnight tonight we are having our winter solstice. So daylength tomorrow is 1 second longer than today. The saying goes that when the days get longer the cold gets stronger. And yes, the coldest time of the year in New Zealand is usually in early August around 6 weeks (or half a season) after the solstice. The Guardian has reported that Antarctic temperatures this winter have risen 10C above average in a record heatwave. The new winter peak temperature was logged by the Argentinian Esperanza base on the Trinity peninsula on 6 June amid a protracted heatwave, when the maximum daily temperature exceeded zero degrees for three consecutive weeks. Scientists said the high of 15.4C broke the previous record set at the same station in 1998 by 2C. It is also about 20C above normal for this time of the year. That is a huge anomaly. Unusually strong warm winds from the north blew across much of the Antarctic peninsula. On King George Island, 100 miles (160km) from Esperanza, researchers said the landscape had changed from mostly white to brown, grey and green after temperatures hit 4.6C on 6 June. “Last weekend was very strange. The temperatures here went very high so everything outside melted,” said Luis Muñoz, a Chilean glaciologist. “Usually there is 20cm of snow and a lot of ice on the ground at this time.” It will be interesting what happens when this El Nino reaches its peak in a few months’ time. Another problem that has arisen this month is the eruption of an undersea volcano on the Titan Ridge in the Bismark Sea. Pumices is coating a large area and floating around surrounding islands. This is likely to affect anyone planning to sail that way later this year. TROPICS TC MEKKHALA is heading towards southern Japan WEATHER ZONES Weather Zones Mid-week GFS model showing isobars, winds, waves (purple), rain (red), MT (Monsoonal trough), STR (Subtropical Ridge), SPCZ (South Pacific Convergence Zone) CZ (Convergence Zone) SPCZ is expected to have a normal week and still be situated north of its normal position. There is a trough tonight between Niue and Tahiti part of the SPCZ. A cold pool has formed aloft on its western side, and this is expected to drop to the surface and form a LOW south of Rarotonga. The Low Lq1 should then deepen and move off to the SE and then to the east. Its associate trough is expected to bring NE wind and rain to Tahi around local Tuesday and then a few days of SW swells. HIGH H1 stretches this evening from Brisbane to Raoul, but this part is expected to shrink next few days and another HIGH crossing the South Island on Monday is expected to enlarge over Chathams on Tuesday then travel east on to the south side of L1. LOW L2 is now forming east of Sydney and is expected to deepen but then develop multiple centres as it crosses northern New Zealand on Wednesday and Thursday finally weakening over Chathams at the weekend. It is expected to be followed by a burst of SW swells over 3.3m that may reach as far north as Fiji to Tonga by Saturday. HIGH H2 is expected to travel east across the Aussie Bight reaching Tasmania by end of the week. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> If you would like more details about your voyage, check metbob.com Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/ Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom). Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz. Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>