Bobgram

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific. Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world. Compiled 26 July 2026 NIWA's outlook for next few months in the South Pacific. The full article is at https://niwa.co.nz/sites/default/files/2026-07/ICU-ASO-2026.pdf With the Southern Oscillation index at -2.3 and NINO3.4index at +1.82C we are now well into this El Nino. Trends show further strengthening in the coming months. This shifts the South pacific Convergence zone north and eastwards. Groups near the equator get wetter. Groups neat 15 to 25 South have a "dry season" that is real dry. They give the recent rainfall (30days to 24 July expressed as an anomaly) And here the forecast rain for August ( expressed as a decile of normal) Or the deciles for August to December This shows the expected extreme dryness and wetness for the remainder of the year. TROPICS . Tropical Storm Elida passed well to the west of Baja California and was followed by Hurricane Fausto, which is moving westward across the Pacific, and then Genevieve. . Parts of the U.S. Gulf Coast received pounding surf and squalls from passing Tropical Storm Bertha. . Typhoon NOUL is making landfall on China just to northeast of Hong Kong . WEATHER ZONES The South Pacific Convergence zone remains well north of its usual position. We have a good example of zonal flow this week with features south of the Subtropical ridge travelling almost due east Low L1 crossed NZ over the weekend and on its northern side there is a northerly extension of its frontal system acting as a convergence zone and expected to cross Society Island and Tahiti on local Wednesday--- preceded by a day or so of northerly winds and followed by south to southeast winds. High H1 is expected to cross NZ this week allowing some reasonable voyages between NZ and the tropics and from Aus to NZ. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> If you would like more details about your voyage, check metbob.com Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/ Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom). Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz. Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>