Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing weather around the South pacific

29 January 2023

bob Blog 29 Jan 2023

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 29 Jan 2023

The Auckland deluge, an eggbeater
On Friday 27 January , the day before a long holiday weekend, a deluge of
rain moved over Auckland delivering downpours of 100-200mm rain mainly in
around 5 hours.
These are tropical proportions, and Auckland's drains are engineered to cope
with up to around 30mm per hour, so many didn't cope.
In the past that 30mm/hr threshold has been briefly exceeded, and last
Friday it was well and truly exceeded for around 4 to 5 consecutive hours.
Even the airport was flooded, and Elton John's concert cancelled.

The weather pattern for this deluge is a typical example of what I call an
eggbeater with two main ingredients.
1: A large HIGH over 1030 east of NZ that is being held in place by light
winds aloft.
2: Low pressure areas are being formed in the Tasman sea, but can't move
east because of the blocking high.
These ingredients combine like an old-fashioned manual eggbeater.
One spinning one way, and the other spinning the other way..
To feed tropical air into the hose of northeast winds aimed at Aotearoa NZ.
Similar weather patterns in the past have produced similarly wet days.
This one was super charged, and the reason for that may be that the Oceans
are now the warmest ever measured ..

Cyclone CHENESO brought lots of damage to Madagascar and is now moving off
to the south.
There is potential this week for cyclone formation between Indonesia and
northern Australia.

South Pacific Convergence zone SPCZ
The SPCZ is expected to be very active from PNG all the way to French
Low L1 near Norfolk Island is expected to intensify as it travels slowly
southwest to west of Northland by mid-week and then fade further south.
High H1 east of Chatham Islands is quasi -stationary and expected to crawl
east along 45S.
Low L2 is expected to form near 20S to south of Tahiti early in the week and
then travel southwestwards and deepen.
Low L3 in the monsoonal trough over inland Australia is expected to bud off
coastal Sydney on Tuesday and then go southeast and fade in the Tasman Sea.
A tropical Low may form near Fiji this weekend. Keep an eye out for this.
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