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Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing weather around the South pacific

28 April 2022

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24 April 2022

Bob Blog 24 April

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 24 April 2022
The 2021-2022 Cyclone Season
The time-map at my blog at metbob.com, from
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021-22_South_Pacific_cyclone_season, shows all the
tropical depressions and named cyclones that affected the South Pacific
region during the cyclone season that started on 1 November 2020 and ended
on 30 April 2021
Five named storms is below average. 2 directly affected NZ and that's above
average.

Tropical Cyclone Ruby
Peak 110 kph 975hPa
On December 13, Tropical Cyclone Ruby came from Australian waters and moved
southeast across the Tasman Sea. On 14-15 December its remanets brought
heavy rain to parts of NZ

Severe Tropical Cyclone Cody
Peak 95-130 kph 971hpa
From January 5, as a depression, this system brought heavy rain to Fiji.
4,000 people had to be evacuated. On January 10, a man drowned in Fiji
while attempting to cross a flooding river. On the same day, the system was
upgraded to a Category 1 tropical cyclone Cody.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Dovi
Peak 175 kph 940 hPa
From February 6, a Tropical Low formed west of Vanuatu. By February 9 it was
named as cyclone DOVI. On February 10 Dovi made landfall onto the Isle of
Pines in New Caledonia, where it became slow-moving and intensified,
bringing widespread flooding to parts of Vanuatu and New Caledonia.
On February 13 Dovi made landfall as an extratropical storm in the Waitomo
District in New Zealand's North Island. Severe weather was felt across much
of the island, with heavy rain causing flooding and slips, and closing
Auckland harbour bridge. A preliminary figure for damage done by Dovi in New
Zealand is $44.4million

Tropical Cyclone Eva
Peak 65kph 995hPa
On February 27 EVA was named near New Caledonia. It faded in the north
Tasman Sea in early March.

Tropical Cyclone Fili
Peak 110kph 977 hPa
On April 3, a tropical depression started developing well northwest of Vila.
On April 5 it was named northwest of New Caledonia and passed by close to
their south coast on 6-7 April. Then on 12-13 April it passed close to the
northeast of North Island, hitting East Coast and Gisborne areas hard.

A time-latitude diagram for the Tasman Sea area has been constructed using
psl.noaa.gov/map/time_plot/. At my blog at metbob.com, it shows the isobaric
pressure for each day from Dec to Easter, with Highs appearing as
yellow/orange areas and Lows as blue/white. The orange line shows that the
latitude used by passing highs shifted south until end of February and is
now shifting north. The cyclones timings are labelled along with the
tropical intrusion on March 21st.

It is interesting to compare these cyclones with the passing MJO (Madden
Julian Oscillation) pulses, shown at my blog at metbob.com is a
time-longitude plot from NOAA in USA as blue shading in the OLR (outgoing
longwave radiation) anomolies, This diagram shows two MJO events, one in
December triggering RUBY and CODY and another in April triggering FILI.
Interestingly, DOVI and EVA did not occur during an MJO.

TROPICS
There are no cyclones around now and even the areas of potential development
are shrinking.
It is safe to say that the South Pacific Cyclone season is now over.

WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific ConvL1ergence zone.
The SPCZ is south of normal, across Coral Sea Vanuatu Fiji Tonga and then
southeast into a low L1.
A convergence zone /trough over Austral and Gambier Island sis expected to
fade.

HIGHS and LOWS
Low L1 is expected to form in convergence zone south of Niue by mid week and
then deepen as it travels SE.
Low L2 is expected to travel east along 50S.
A High H1 south of Tasmania is expected to travel ENE form 50S to 40S
reaching central NZ by end of week.
Because of H1, northern Tasman and Coral seas have easterly winds this week,
strong in places.
Travel from Tahiti to Tonga should check to avoid L1 and dodge SPCZ.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

17 April 2022

Bob Blog 17 April

Bob Blog 17 April
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.

Compiled Sunday 17 April 2022
A few weeks ago I shared a link to a tutorial on Windy.com's great "distance
and planning" tool.
Sadly, this no longer works as before, Windy.com seems to be in the middle
of upgrade and the timer slide doesn't work anymore. I've reported this as a
bug and it may return as a feature.

MJO
The MJO (Madden Julian oscillation) was named in 1971, when Roland Madden
and Paul Julian discovered a pulse of extra energy that travels eastwards
along the tropics from Indian Ocean to Pacific Ocean. It is a regional scale
coupling between atmospheric circulation and tropical convection. It is
known to increase the risk of cyclone formation and can be tracked watching
cloud and rain patterns.

A good site to see its extrapolated trend is
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/foregfs.shtml, scroll down
to Ensemble map of the OLR (outgoing long wave radiation) anomolies. Here,
blue is bubbly and yellow is mellow. The current MJO will be the last for
this South Pacific cyclone and moved into the South Pacific about 10 days
ago helping to encourage cyclone FILI between New Caledonia and NZ. The
diagram shows MJO is now rapidly fading.

TROPICS
FILI travelled quickly southeast and sideswiped North Island East coast last
Tuesday/Wednesday bringing some strong wind and heavy rain. There are no
cyclones around now and even the areas of potential development are
shrinking.

WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific ConvL1ergence zone.
The SPCZ stretches from PNG to Vanuatu/Fiji. Waves of showers are expected
to travel northwards across Fiji and Tonga/Samoa.
A convergence zone /trough is expected to linger over Society and Austral
Islands this week.

HIGHS and LOWS
A High H1 east of NZ is expected to become a BFH Big Fat High to over 1032
travelling slowly along40S, feeding east to Northeast winds onto northern NZ

Low L1 near Norfolk Island is expected to travel only slowly ESE until
mid-week and then more quickly southeast to east of Northland. Associated
front should cross North Island on Mon/Tue.

A trough over Tasmania tonight should reach southern NZ by Tuesday and clear
North Island by end of Thursday to merge with L1. This should be followed by
a southwest flow.

High H2 is expected to travel across Tasmania by Tuesday and then northeast
into central Tasman Sea .

L1 is helping trips from New Caledonia to Fiji.
H2 is expected to help trips from New Caledonia to Australia.
After Tuesday it will be difficult to sail from Queensland to New Zealand
this week.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

10 April 2022

Bob Blog 10 Apr

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 10 April 2022

For latest forecast of CLIMATE ACTION NOW getting north of the Antarctic
Convergence zone see youtu.be/_iIzDvWkPUM
Fifty-four
years ago today the remains of a cyclone from New Caledonia,
GISELLE, crossed the North Island taking 4 lives on land and 51 lives in the
sinking of the WAHINE inter-island ferry at the entrance to Wellington
harbour.
For an animated gif file on Giselle in April 1968 see
youtube.com/shorts/w8pGrOFCJn8

During the coming week the remains of a cyclone from New Caledonia, FILI is
expected to graze past the North Island on Tuesday to Thursday. For
windy.com showing of the EC model of FILI over NZ mid-week see
youtu.be/tKuX0FctpPI
Comparing the two cyclones, they start in much the same place and intensity
and at the same time of the year, and the western HIGHS and cold front from
the south look similar. However, the eastern HIGHS are different and this
week the High in the east is expected to relax and allow the remains of FILI
to go southeast: a different path and nowhere near as intense as Giselle..

TROPICS
FILI formed in the Coral Sea, passed New Caledonia with no newsworthy
damage, and is heading southeast and should bring unwelcome wind and rain
to North Island on Tuesday to Thursday. MALAKAS formed east of Palau and is
peeling off to the northwest, as first cyclone for 2022 in this area. MEGI
has formed near the Philippines.

WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific ConvL1ergence zone.
The SPCZ stretches from PNG to Vanuatu/New Caledonia to Fiji/Tonga.
A convergence zone over Southern cooks and Austral Islands is expected to
form L3 which then travels southeast parallel to Fili. OK this week for
sailing west across the tropics.

HIGHS and LOWS
Fili is expected to travel southeast past the east of North Island mid-week
brining heavy rain and gales.
A cold front is spreading northeast across the Tasman Sea. Once its cold air
encounters Fili, L3 is expected to form and then rotate clockwise around the
path of Fili onto Northland for Easter weekend. Avoid NZ this week.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

04 April 2022

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03 April 2022

Bob Blog 3 April

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 03 April 2022

For latest forecast of CLIMATE ACTION NOW about to pass Cape Horn this week
see youtu.be/2mvG9yC1jYo

For a very useful tutorial on how to use windy.com for voyage planning see
www.youtube.com/watch?v=qlKTRst3vSs this is from noonsite.com's latest
monthly newsletter, a definite first go-to place for anyone planning to sail
across the ocean.

REVIEW OF THE LAST MONTH (March 2022)
Sea surface temperature anomolies: the cool eddies along the eastern
equatorial Pacific that signify LA Nina are continuing to relax but are
still there. There is also a C shaped ring of warm water around this across
north Pacific Indonesia and South Pacific, and warm zones across the south
Tasman Sea and off South Africa more intense than last month. And the Gulf
stream is lit up like the stars and stripes.

The subtropical ridge in the northern Hemisphere has weakened since last
month.

The anomaly map shows a larger and stronger Tasman Sea double -barrelled low
(matching the floods in eastern Oz and eastern NZ) and the Low in the North
Pacific has shrunk. Not sure what has happened in Africa, now part of a low
breeding ground that stretches to Australia.

These maps show that the 1015 isobar has shifted north a little over
Australia, and there are more 1020 isobars in the subtropical ridge. The
Antarctic High has increased to over 1030 in the region that managed to get
an atmospheric river of warmth that produced a heat wave in Antarctica near
the equinox. This same atmospheric river brought a series of floods to
eastern oz and eastern NZ.

TROPICS
HALIMA has faded in the mid-south Indian Ocean. There are no cyclones around
at present but there is an increasing potential for development east of the
Philippines and around the Coral Sea. This is a sign that we are now in for
a few weeks of extra energy in the western Pacific, as a Madden Julian
Oscillation MJO moves onto the area. However recent observations are showing
this MJO is rather weak.

WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific ConvL1ergence zone.
The SPCZ stretches from PNG to Vanuatu/New Caledonia to Fiji/Tonga to
Southern Cooks.
L1 to the northwest of New Caledonia is expected to travel Southeast across
New Caledonia by mid-week and continue to get south of Fiji/Tonga by end of
the week, bringing a lull to the trades over Fiji/Tonga. Avoid.

Low L2 off Sydney is expected to weaken as it travels east-southeast and
crosses central NZ mid-week.

High H1, which was a good blocking high last week to east of the North
Island, is moving off the east this week along 35S allowing L1 and L2 to
follow.

High H2 south of Tasmania is expected to only travel slowly northeast across
southern Tasman Sea reaching central Tasman Sea by end of the week. This is
NOT a good week for voyaging from Queensland eastwards.

There is a mirror convergence zone at 2S to west of Galapagos. This is
normal around and soon after the equinox and may linger for a few weeks.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

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