Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 26 November 2023
Earth briefly passed a critical warming threshold on Fri 17 Nov. According
to data from ERA5, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts'
(ECMWF) fifth generation reanalysis of the global climate from 1940 to the
present, 17 November 2023 was the first day in which the global temperature
exceeded 2°C above pre-industrial levels. These latest figures put Earth's
rising temperatures into sharp focus ahead of COP28, which is set to start
in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, on 30 November.
TROPICS
The South Pacific Convergence zone is located from Solomons to Tokelau and
then SE towards Southern Cooks.
HIGHS and LOWS
LOW1 has been east of Gisborne this weekend with southerly rain over NE of
NZ and is moving off to the southeast.
HIGH H1 is remaining quasi stationary around 35S to south of Tahiti, with a
strong ridge along 30S between Fiji and NZ.
LOW L2 off Tasmania by Monday is expected to cross NZ as a trough on Tuesday
followed by a SW flow on Wednesday.
HIGH H2 should follow L2 crossing NZ on Thursday and Friday.
LOW L3 is expected to move from Aussie interior to off NSW by Thursday and
then travel east across the Tasman this weekend and central NZ on Monday.
These are mediocre features this week, nothing to noticeably avoid.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check metbob.com to
see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
26 November 2023
19 November 2023
Bob Blog
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 19 November 2023
"Characterization of Microplastics in Clouds over Eastern China"
Environmental Science & Technology Letters
Researchers characterized the properties of microplastics in clouds at the
top of Mount Tai (shown here), finding the particles could play a role in
cloud formation.
Microplastics - plastic fragments smaller than five millimeters - originate
from a myriad of items used daily, such as clothing, packaging and car
tires. As research in the field evolves, scientists are not only detecting
microplastics in the atmosphere but also investigating how they may play a
role in cloud formation. For example, a group of researchers recently
detected plastic granules, which had water-attracting surfaces, in Japanese
mountaintop clouds. So, to learn more, Yan Wang and colleagues set out to
look for microplastics in mountain clouds, used computer models to figure
out how they could have gotten there, and tested how the particles could
have impacted - and been impacted by - the clouds.
Wang and the team first collected 28 samples of liquid from clouds at the
top of Mount Tai in eastern China. Then they analyzed the samples and found:
. Low-altitude and denser clouds contained greater amounts of microplastics.
. Particles were made of common polymers, including polyethylene
terephthalate, polypropylene, polyethylene, polystyrene and polyamide.
. The microplastics tended to be smaller than 100 micrometers in length,
although some were as long as 1,500 micrometers.
. Older, rougher particles had more lead, mercury and oxygen attached to
their surfaces, which the researchers suggest could facilitate cloud
development.
TROPICS
Finally, a weekend with no named storms.
MAL visited NW Fiji with some strong winds and heavy rain, frightening many
yachts into the mangroves, but things quickly returned to normal.
The MJO, a burst of extra energy in the tropics, is now reforming in the
Indian Ocean.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is located from Solomons to Tokelau and
then SE towards Southern Cooks.
HIGHS and LOWS
HIGH H1 is travelling east along around 50S to east of NZ, blocking the
movement of L1.
It is leaving behind another HIGH H2 in the Tasman Sea which fades away on
Thursday,
LOW L1 is moving off northland on Monday and being pushed off to the NE and
expected to fade by mid-week.
LOW L2 from Sydney area by Tuesday is expected to merge with a low from
Southern Ocean and become a large Low across NZ to east of North Island by
next Saturday with a southerly blast over NZ. Avoid.
This also may bring Southerly swells to 3m as far north as 30S between 170
and 175E in the North Tasman Sea by Saturday. Avoid.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check metbob.com to
see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 19 November 2023
"Characterization of Microplastics in Clouds over Eastern China"
Environmental Science & Technology Letters
Researchers characterized the properties of microplastics in clouds at the
top of Mount Tai (shown here), finding the particles could play a role in
cloud formation.
Microplastics - plastic fragments smaller than five millimeters - originate
from a myriad of items used daily, such as clothing, packaging and car
tires. As research in the field evolves, scientists are not only detecting
microplastics in the atmosphere but also investigating how they may play a
role in cloud formation. For example, a group of researchers recently
detected plastic granules, which had water-attracting surfaces, in Japanese
mountaintop clouds. So, to learn more, Yan Wang and colleagues set out to
look for microplastics in mountain clouds, used computer models to figure
out how they could have gotten there, and tested how the particles could
have impacted - and been impacted by - the clouds.
Wang and the team first collected 28 samples of liquid from clouds at the
top of Mount Tai in eastern China. Then they analyzed the samples and found:
. Low-altitude and denser clouds contained greater amounts of microplastics.
. Particles were made of common polymers, including polyethylene
terephthalate, polypropylene, polyethylene, polystyrene and polyamide.
. The microplastics tended to be smaller than 100 micrometers in length,
although some were as long as 1,500 micrometers.
. Older, rougher particles had more lead, mercury and oxygen attached to
their surfaces, which the researchers suggest could facilitate cloud
development.
TROPICS
Finally, a weekend with no named storms.
MAL visited NW Fiji with some strong winds and heavy rain, frightening many
yachts into the mangroves, but things quickly returned to normal.
The MJO, a burst of extra energy in the tropics, is now reforming in the
Indian Ocean.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is located from Solomons to Tokelau and
then SE towards Southern Cooks.
HIGHS and LOWS
HIGH H1 is travelling east along around 50S to east of NZ, blocking the
movement of L1.
It is leaving behind another HIGH H2 in the Tasman Sea which fades away on
Thursday,
LOW L1 is moving off northland on Monday and being pushed off to the NE and
expected to fade by mid-week.
LOW L2 from Sydney area by Tuesday is expected to merge with a low from
Southern Ocean and become a large Low across NZ to east of North Island by
next Saturday with a southerly blast over NZ. Avoid.
This also may bring Southerly swells to 3m as far north as 30S between 170
and 175E in the North Tasman Sea by Saturday. Avoid.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check metbob.com to
see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
17 November 2023
Collaboration request
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12 November 2023
Bob blog
McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 12 November 2023
The November Migration
A snapshot of marine traffic mid last week shows that the November migration
of cruising yachts (coloured orange here) is in full swing. 1 November is
nominally the start of the cyclone season, and yachts are exiting the
tropics. Some are heading for Australia, and many seem lined up for New
Zealand
I've chosen this week to also do a road-trip /migration and will be visiting
Northland. I shall be visiting the Opua Cruising club for dinner on
Wednesday and Thursday evening. I invite any one in this migration who has
recently arrived in Opua to have a chat.
And the migration seems to be timely. There was a equatorial westerly last
week and it is helping to form a twin of spinning spirals neat 150 to 180:
The spinning thunderstorms near 10S 170E have now developed into tropical
depression 91P/02F
The models still are differing about over the future of this system.
I find that good reading of it potential impact is available from the wind
accumulation map selection on windy.com .
The latest OFFICIAL information is issued by Fiji Met Service in their
tropical disturbance notice at www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/20032.txt
TROPICS
Apart form the Depression NW of Fiji, there are also others being watched on
the northern side of the equator that were triggered by that equatorial
westerly.
The MJO, a burst of extra energy in the tropics, is now over the western
Pacific for the next few weeks.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is mainly mixed in with clouds of the
forming Tropical cyclone. The path of the gales is across Fiji mainly on
Tuesday /Wednesday and Minerva on Thursday. Avoid. Those travelling south to
NZ should target to get south of 28S by Thursday.
HIGHS and LOWS
HIGH H1 is travelling east along 35S. There is a squash zone of enhanced
trade winds on its northern side and this seems to be weakening.
There is a trough between Tonga and NZ. Low L1 should form in this trough
near 30S 180 tonight and travel SE this week Combined with a front crossing
NZ on Tuesday this is expected to maintain a southerly flow from NZ to as
far north as 30S until Wednesday.
A front over SW of NZ on Monday is likely to stall, bringing extreme rain.
The next trough and low is expected to cross Tasman Sea and South Island on
Thursday and then stall over North Island on Friday and the weekend.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check metbob.com to
see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/ Weathergram with graphics is at
metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 12 November 2023
The November Migration
A snapshot of marine traffic mid last week shows that the November migration
of cruising yachts (coloured orange here) is in full swing. 1 November is
nominally the start of the cyclone season, and yachts are exiting the
tropics. Some are heading for Australia, and many seem lined up for New
Zealand
I've chosen this week to also do a road-trip /migration and will be visiting
Northland. I shall be visiting the Opua Cruising club for dinner on
Wednesday and Thursday evening. I invite any one in this migration who has
recently arrived in Opua to have a chat.
And the migration seems to be timely. There was a equatorial westerly last
week and it is helping to form a twin of spinning spirals neat 150 to 180:
The spinning thunderstorms near 10S 170E have now developed into tropical
depression 91P/02F
The models still are differing about over the future of this system.
I find that good reading of it potential impact is available from the wind
accumulation map selection on windy.com .
The latest OFFICIAL information is issued by Fiji Met Service in their
tropical disturbance notice at www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/20032.txt
TROPICS
Apart form the Depression NW of Fiji, there are also others being watched on
the northern side of the equator that were triggered by that equatorial
westerly.
The MJO, a burst of extra energy in the tropics, is now over the western
Pacific for the next few weeks.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is mainly mixed in with clouds of the
forming Tropical cyclone. The path of the gales is across Fiji mainly on
Tuesday /Wednesday and Minerva on Thursday. Avoid. Those travelling south to
NZ should target to get south of 28S by Thursday.
HIGHS and LOWS
HIGH H1 is travelling east along 35S. There is a squash zone of enhanced
trade winds on its northern side and this seems to be weakening.
There is a trough between Tonga and NZ. Low L1 should form in this trough
near 30S 180 tonight and travel SE this week Combined with a front crossing
NZ on Tuesday this is expected to maintain a southerly flow from NZ to as
far north as 30S until Wednesday.
A front over SW of NZ on Monday is likely to stall, bringing extreme rain.
The next trough and low is expected to cross Tasman Sea and South Island on
Thursday and then stall over North Island on Friday and the weekend.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check metbob.com to
see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/ Weathergram with graphics is at
metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
05 November 2023
Bob Blog 5 Nov
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 5November 2023
A review of last month's weather
Here is a link to a YouTube clip giving an animated loop of the isobars and
streamlines in the South Pacific for the last month at youtu.be/z6UHHEhr8Tc
During October the mid-latitudes were a true mix of intrusions form tropics
and polar regions. As is normal in Sprin. This year the sea over the central
equatorial Pacific were warmer than normal and Cyclone LOLA was produced,
briefly Cat 5 near Pentecost Island, The Low rejuvenated when it met cold
southerly winds in the Tasman Sea and brough wet windy conditions to norther
North Island a few days after the COASTAL CLASSIC
At about the same time Cyclone OTIS burst to Cat % as it moved onto
Acapulco:
I can't remember any month in the recent path with two Cat 5 cyclones almost
at the same time in different hemisphere.
Seasonal changes are observable: In the Northern Hemisphere the winter HIGH
has developed over much of Europe. In the Southern Hemisphere, the
subtropical ridge is shifting slowly south.
Pressure anomalies for past month
Shows falling pressures over Russia and rising pressures over the roaring
40s in the Southern Hemisphere.
A detail of interest is that LOLA's rejuvenation in the Tasman Sea has
impacted the anomaly map.
Isobars are getting higher over Australia /NE/and further east. There is
also higher pressure building over eastern Canada. Lower pressures over
southern Indian ocean.
Zooming into the NZ area
The isobars north and south of New Zealand haven't changed much, and
overall, the 1020 isobar covers a smaller area. However, there is a new 1025
isobar west of Perth.
TROPICS
PILAR crossed El Salvidor with downpours and is now travelling NW across the
Paciifc
The MJO, a burst of extra energy in the tropics, is expected to enter the
western Pacific over next few weeks.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is building between Solomons and Samoa.
There is expected to be a weak passing trough over Tahiti area next weekend.
Topical Low L2 is expected to form between Fiji and Samoa from mid-week and
then creep slowly westwards towards Solomons next week. Avoid.
HIGH H1 east of NZ is acting as a block.
There is a trough between Tonga and NZ. Low L1 should form in this trough
near 30S 180 tonight and travel SE this week Combined with a front crossing
NZ on Tuesday this is expected to maintain a southerly flow from NZ to as
far north as 30S until Wednesday.
HIGH H2 is expected to spread from south of Tasmania to mid Tasman Sea by
mid-week and then travel NE onto northern NZ.
Between H2 and L2 a squash zone of enhanced easterly winds and large swell
is expected to form from Thursday around 15 to 20S.
For arriving in NZ: Light winds this weekend, then a minor front likely
around Tue 14 Nov, then a few good days with westerly winds.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check metbob.com to
see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 5November 2023
A review of last month's weather
Here is a link to a YouTube clip giving an animated loop of the isobars and
streamlines in the South Pacific for the last month at youtu.be/z6UHHEhr8Tc
During October the mid-latitudes were a true mix of intrusions form tropics
and polar regions. As is normal in Sprin. This year the sea over the central
equatorial Pacific were warmer than normal and Cyclone LOLA was produced,
briefly Cat 5 near Pentecost Island, The Low rejuvenated when it met cold
southerly winds in the Tasman Sea and brough wet windy conditions to norther
North Island a few days after the COASTAL CLASSIC
At about the same time Cyclone OTIS burst to Cat % as it moved onto
Acapulco:
I can't remember any month in the recent path with two Cat 5 cyclones almost
at the same time in different hemisphere.
Seasonal changes are observable: In the Northern Hemisphere the winter HIGH
has developed over much of Europe. In the Southern Hemisphere, the
subtropical ridge is shifting slowly south.
Pressure anomalies for past month
Shows falling pressures over Russia and rising pressures over the roaring
40s in the Southern Hemisphere.
A detail of interest is that LOLA's rejuvenation in the Tasman Sea has
impacted the anomaly map.
Isobars are getting higher over Australia /NE/and further east. There is
also higher pressure building over eastern Canada. Lower pressures over
southern Indian ocean.
Zooming into the NZ area
The isobars north and south of New Zealand haven't changed much, and
overall, the 1020 isobar covers a smaller area. However, there is a new 1025
isobar west of Perth.
TROPICS
PILAR crossed El Salvidor with downpours and is now travelling NW across the
Paciifc
The MJO, a burst of extra energy in the tropics, is expected to enter the
western Pacific over next few weeks.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is building between Solomons and Samoa.
There is expected to be a weak passing trough over Tahiti area next weekend.
Topical Low L2 is expected to form between Fiji and Samoa from mid-week and
then creep slowly westwards towards Solomons next week. Avoid.
HIGH H1 east of NZ is acting as a block.
There is a trough between Tonga and NZ. Low L1 should form in this trough
near 30S 180 tonight and travel SE this week Combined with a front crossing
NZ on Tuesday this is expected to maintain a southerly flow from NZ to as
far north as 30S until Wednesday.
HIGH H2 is expected to spread from south of Tasmania to mid Tasman Sea by
mid-week and then travel NE onto northern NZ.
Between H2 and L2 a squash zone of enhanced easterly winds and large swell
is expected to form from Thursday around 15 to 20S.
For arriving in NZ: Light winds this weekend, then a minor front likely
around Tue 14 Nov, then a few good days with westerly winds.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check metbob.com to
see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
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