Bob Blog 27 Mar
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 27 March 2022
Beware the triple point
Northern and eastern parts of North Island had record rainfalls to mark the
equinox om 21-22 March. The MetService weather station on Purerua peninsula,
northeast of Kerikeri, recorded 93mm in one hour (12:30 and 1:30am).
Maungatapere, just inland from Whangarei, recorded 123.2mm between 3:30and
4:30am. (NZ national record for one hour rainfall is 134mm held by Cropp
between Hokitika and Mount Cook, 8 Jan 2004).
The deluge came from a narrow band of thundery showers marking where the air
around a low collides with air around a high.
Looking closely at the animation of the daily weather maps (see
www.youtube.com/watch?v=vkO3jfcsD1w) shows frontal details. The TRIPLE POINT
is where a cold front catches up with a warm front and starts producing an
occluded front.
The illustrated blog at metbob.wordpress.com/2022/03/27/bob-blog-27-mar/
shows an accumulated rainfall map for NZ for the week ending 24 March from
MetService with the path of a triple point. The purple area on the rain map
is over 200mm
So, when you see a triple point on a weather map, BEWARE.
TROPICS
There is an active phase of MJO pulse in the Indian Ocean moving onto
northern Australia.
TC CHARLOTTE formed northwest of Australia last week and stayed offshore and
faded.
HALIMA is traveling southeast over the open sea.
WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
The SPCZ stretches from PNG to Vanuatu to Fiji/Tonga to Southern Cooks.
A trough L3 is expected to form over Vanuatu by mid-week and then travel
southeast over Fiji by Friday.
HIGHS and LOWS
Low1 is a continuation of last weeks Tasman Low and is now expected to be
kicked north then east.
High H1 east of NZ is expected to travel off to the east.
Low L2 is expected to form northeast of Brisbane on Monday and then deepen
and travel southeast across the Tasman Sea, producing strong winds and
swells up to 5m reaching the North Island this weekend then followed by
southerly winds. L2 offers a good pattern for getting from Aussie to New
Caledonia.
High H2 is waiting in the Aussie Bight for the southerly winds after L2 to
reach NZ and then is expected to cross the Tasman next week along 40S.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
27 March 2022
20 March 2022
Bob Blog 20 March
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 20 March 2022
LA NINA is lingering:
A few months ago it seemed that this current La Nina episode was about to
fade.
However, trade winds have increased in the western Pacific over the past few
weeks and this is shown as a rise in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)
Even so, this La Nina is over its peak and a return to neutral El
Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) levels—neither La Niña nor El Niño—is still
expected over the next few months.
TROPICS
The SPCZ stretches from PNG to Vanuatu to Fiji/Tonga to Southern Cooks.
Low1 in Tasman Sea is expected to travel slowly northeast across the North
Island and then turn to the southsoutheast, between H1 and H2. Avoid.
High H1 to east of NZ is expected to travel east along 45 to 40 South,
followed by H2 from the Aussie Bight. These highs offer opportunities for
trans-Tasman travel.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 20 March 2022
LA NINA is lingering:
A few months ago it seemed that this current La Nina episode was about to
fade.
However, trade winds have increased in the western Pacific over the past few
weeks and this is shown as a rise in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)
Even so, this La Nina is over its peak and a return to neutral El
Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) levels—neither La Niña nor El Niño—is still
expected over the next few months.
TROPICS
The SPCZ stretches from PNG to Vanuatu to Fiji/Tonga to Southern Cooks.
Low1 in Tasman Sea is expected to travel slowly northeast across the North
Island and then turn to the southsoutheast, between H1 and H2. Avoid.
High H1 to east of NZ is expected to travel east along 45 to 40 South,
followed by H2 from the Aussie Bight. These highs offer opportunities for
trans-Tasman travel.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
13 March 2022
Bob Blog 13 March
Bob Blog 13 March
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 13 March 2022
An interesting blog I came across this week is a brief summary of how to
read a marine forecast at
www.metocean.co.nz/news/2022/3/8/understanding-marine-forecasts.
Sadly these forecasts don't include the barometer, and I think that is the
number one weather indicator for mariners.
TROPICS
The latest cyclone activity report is at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and Tropical
Cyclone Potential is from www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html
TC Gombe is fading after harassing Madagascar. Apart form a possible
potential area south of Sumatra, the coming weeks are expected to be quiet
in the South Pacific, as the next MJO burst develops in the Indian Ocean. It
seems that the main impact of the recent MJO has been the east Australia
flooding.
WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
The SPCZ stretches from PNG to Vanuatu/New Caledonia to Fiji/Tonga to
Southern Cooks.
Rain Accumulation next five days from windy.com
HIGHS and LOWS
Low1 to E of New Zealand started south of Niue last week and should bring a
nasty southerly to Gisborne this week with some heavy rain then peel off to
the east after Thursday.\
Low L2 s expected to travel east to south of Tahiti.
Low L3 is expected to form NE of Lord Howe Island on Monday and then go
northeast towards Tonga and follow L2 next week.
High H1 well to southeast of NZ is expected to travel NE.
High H2 is expected to travel from Aussie Bight to south of NZ as Low L4
follows behind it into central Tasman.
As we approach the equinox the sun is directly over 5 degrees South this
week and this induces a southward shift of the ITCZ over the eastern
Pacific. It seems to happen every year and this ECZ or equinoctial
convergence zone may now last for several weeks.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 13 March 2022
An interesting blog I came across this week is a brief summary of how to
read a marine forecast at
www.metocean.co.nz/news/2022/3/8/understanding-marine-forecasts.
Sadly these forecasts don't include the barometer, and I think that is the
number one weather indicator for mariners.
TROPICS
The latest cyclone activity report is at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and Tropical
Cyclone Potential is from www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html
TC Gombe is fading after harassing Madagascar. Apart form a possible
potential area south of Sumatra, the coming weeks are expected to be quiet
in the South Pacific, as the next MJO burst develops in the Indian Ocean. It
seems that the main impact of the recent MJO has been the east Australia
flooding.
WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
The SPCZ stretches from PNG to Vanuatu/New Caledonia to Fiji/Tonga to
Southern Cooks.
Rain Accumulation next five days from windy.com
HIGHS and LOWS
Low1 to E of New Zealand started south of Niue last week and should bring a
nasty southerly to Gisborne this week with some heavy rain then peel off to
the east after Thursday.\
Low L2 s expected to travel east to south of Tahiti.
Low L3 is expected to form NE of Lord Howe Island on Monday and then go
northeast towards Tonga and follow L2 next week.
High H1 well to southeast of NZ is expected to travel NE.
High H2 is expected to travel from Aussie Bight to south of NZ as Low L4
follows behind it into central Tasman.
As we approach the equinox the sun is directly over 5 degrees South this
week and this induces a southward shift of the ITCZ over the eastern
Pacific. It seems to happen every year and this ECZ or equinoctial
convergence zone may now last for several weeks.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
06 March 2022
Bob Blog 6 March
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 06 March 2022
I am now doing daily weather updates for Lisa Blair who in now 2 weeks into
her attempt at the Around Antarctica race. See
lisablairsailstheworld.com/blog, She is also deploying buoys and sea-drones
and taking sea samples as part of this adventure, but the project is still
underfunded and people are asked if the would be willing to promote their
club or firm by sponsoring a degree of longitude which will become sponsor
of the day as she circumnavigates the world.
REVIEW OF THE LAST MONTH (Feb2022)
Sea Surface temperature anomalies from psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.shtml
The cool eddies along the eastern equatorial Pacific that signify LA Nina
and now relaxing. Elsewhere over the North and South Pacific are yellow and
red warm areas, with Tasmania area more intense than last month, and other
hotspots remaining around South Africa, South America, and Fiordland in New
Zealand.
To see how the annual weather cycle and the seasons are working out, we can
check the average isobar maps for past 30 days and their anomaly from
psl.noaa.gov/map/images/fnl/slp_30b.fnl.html
There has been a slight intensification in the subtropical ridges in both
hemispheres, otherwise not much change.
The anomaly map shows little change. Notably the North Tasman Sea is still a
breeding ground for lows.
Zooming into the NZ area
These maps show the subtropical ridge well south of the Australian Bight.
There are new 1029 isobar Highs just east of South Island and southwest of
Australia, showing an intensification. The Antarctic High has also
intensified.
TROPICS
Looks quiet for now. Last week the coastal trough along Australia's east
coast activated with record rainfall and flooding between Bundaberg and
Sydney. There was also heavy rain in the NW from TC ANIKA which made
landfall onto Kimberly.
That low which bothered New Caledonia for much of last week briefly become
TC EVA and is still on the weather map but has weakened.
WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
The SPCZ stretches from PNG to Vanuatu/New Caledonia to Fiji/Tonga to
Southern Cooks.
HIGHS and LOWS
Low1 to SE of New Caledonia ( ex TC EVA) is weakening and travelling slowly
SW.
A tropical Low L2 to south of Niue is expected to go SE then SW.
The ridge between these lows may provide an avenue of light winds between
Fiji and NZ this week.
High H1 in south Tasman Sea is moving steadily east along45S
L3 is forming inland with the East Australian coastal trough and expected to
deepen off Sydney buy Tuesday and then continue southeast to south of NZ.
After that High H2 is expected to travel east into the Tasman sea along 40S,
bringing an easterly flow for a few days across the northern Tasman sea, OK
for travelling from NZ to Aus.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 06 March 2022
I am now doing daily weather updates for Lisa Blair who in now 2 weeks into
her attempt at the Around Antarctica race. See
lisablairsailstheworld.com/blog, She is also deploying buoys and sea-drones
and taking sea samples as part of this adventure, but the project is still
underfunded and people are asked if the would be willing to promote their
club or firm by sponsoring a degree of longitude which will become sponsor
of the day as she circumnavigates the world.
REVIEW OF THE LAST MONTH (Feb2022)
Sea Surface temperature anomalies from psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.shtml
The cool eddies along the eastern equatorial Pacific that signify LA Nina
and now relaxing. Elsewhere over the North and South Pacific are yellow and
red warm areas, with Tasmania area more intense than last month, and other
hotspots remaining around South Africa, South America, and Fiordland in New
Zealand.
To see how the annual weather cycle and the seasons are working out, we can
check the average isobar maps for past 30 days and their anomaly from
psl.noaa.gov/map/images/fnl/slp_30b.fnl.html
There has been a slight intensification in the subtropical ridges in both
hemispheres, otherwise not much change.
The anomaly map shows little change. Notably the North Tasman Sea is still a
breeding ground for lows.
Zooming into the NZ area
These maps show the subtropical ridge well south of the Australian Bight.
There are new 1029 isobar Highs just east of South Island and southwest of
Australia, showing an intensification. The Antarctic High has also
intensified.
TROPICS
Looks quiet for now. Last week the coastal trough along Australia's east
coast activated with record rainfall and flooding between Bundaberg and
Sydney. There was also heavy rain in the NW from TC ANIKA which made
landfall onto Kimberly.
That low which bothered New Caledonia for much of last week briefly become
TC EVA and is still on the weather map but has weakened.
WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
The SPCZ stretches from PNG to Vanuatu/New Caledonia to Fiji/Tonga to
Southern Cooks.
HIGHS and LOWS
Low1 to SE of New Caledonia ( ex TC EVA) is weakening and travelling slowly
SW.
A tropical Low L2 to south of Niue is expected to go SE then SW.
The ridge between these lows may provide an avenue of light winds between
Fiji and NZ this week.
High H1 in south Tasman Sea is moving steadily east along45S
L3 is forming inland with the East Australian coastal trough and expected to
deepen off Sydney buy Tuesday and then continue southeast to south of NZ.
After that High H2 is expected to travel east into the Tasman sea along 40S,
bringing an easterly flow for a few days across the northern Tasman sea, OK
for travelling from NZ to Aus.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
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