BobBlog

WEATHERGRAM

YOTREPS

Compiled Sun 31 March 2019

 

Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

 

REVIEW of MARCH

Sea Surface temperature anomalies as at end of March may be seen at

www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/indicator_sst.jsp?lt=global&lc=global&c=ssta

 

The main pattern changes are a cooler South Indian Ocean and a warmer Coral Sea. It may be that fresh melt water from the recent Antarctic summer has gone north into the South Indian Ocean.

Elsewhere the changes are more subtle—even in the target area for El Nino, the eastern equatorial Pacific,

 

To see how the annual weather cycle and the seasons are working out, check the average isobars for past 30 days and their anomaly from www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/slp_30.fnl.htmlclip_image005

There is a strong “WAVE 3” pattern in the southern hemisphere with HIGHS lingering over Southern Indian Ocean, east of NZ, and west of the Andes. Troughs and southerly outbreaks have been encouraged into the Aussie Bight.

The low-pressure anomalies around the Arctic and northern Europe are related to the Polar vortex. And there is still a large anomalous HIGH around the Antarctic.

 

Zooming into the NZ area, and comparing monthly anomalies for end of Feb with end of March, shows that the main difference is the expanding of the HIGH east of NZ with a 1020 isobar pushing the 1015 from 45S to 55S. Further north, the 1010hP (between light blue and dark blue) isobar is in much the same place, but the 1005 that was around Vanuatu and New Caledonia has faded.

 

The last 30 days of rainfall, and its anomaly are seen at trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/thirty_day.html

And this shows that even in this monthly averaged image the rain track of TC IDAI into eastern Africa stands out. The ITCZ has been wetter than normal across the central Pacific, and below normal across the eastern Pacific. The “mirror Convergence Zone” along 5degrees south in the Eastern Pacific has blossomed in March. There are dry patches appearing in the South Pacific during the “wet” season.

 

THE TROPICS

Latest cyclone activity as at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and TCFP tropical Cyclone Formation Potential as seen at www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html

TC JOANINHA continues on its voyge southwards across the Indian Ocean, and has now left the tropics. The probability for cyclone formation is high around the Marshall islands, the Timor Sea , and. Less so, around Solomon Islands.

For rain in the past week, see trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/big_global_accumlation.gif

Rainwas strongest near JOANINHA and between Nauru and Fiji. There was also a drenching day over NZ Southern Alps, with one raingauge measuring over 1000mm of rain but TRMM doesn’t seem to resolve that finely. This rai took out a bridge, see www.facebook.com/watch/?v=342974573228755

 

WEATHER ZONES

SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.

The SPCZ is active over Papua New Guinea and parts of the Coral Sea. A LOW is forming southeast of Niue and expected to deepen as it travels southeast out of the tropics, bringing a few days of vigorous SW winds and swell to Niue and NW winds and rain to Southern Cooks.

 

Subtropical ridge (STR)

HIGH expected to spread across Tasmania on Monday and Tuesday and then to fade in central Tasman sea/ central NZ on Wed and Thurs.

Next HIGH is expected to travel east to south of Tasmania on Thursday, south of NZ on Fri, then to east of NZ along 45S from Sat.

 

Australia/Tasman Sea / New Zealand

Active front expected to cross NZ on Monday followed by a cooler south/SW flow on Tuesday, and then another cold front from the south on Thursday and Friday, dropping temperatures.

 

Panama to Marquesas

SW swells are starting to arrive in the Gulf of Panama. Good northerly winds for departure from Panama until local Wednesday, then light winds and a motoring start.

There is a reasonable tail current to north end of Galapagos, then go to 6S 100W, to avoid the “mirror convergence zone” along around 5 South,

 

Port Vallarta to Marquesas

Light winds for starters over next few days, best winds for departure this week are likely to be after Friday.

Weak ITCZ likely between 6N and 2N, and then a “mirror CZ” near 3 to 5S

 

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.

Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/

Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).

Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.

Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 6427 7762212

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Bob Blog 24 March

WEATHERGRAM

YOTREPS

Compiled Sun 24 March 2019

 

Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

 

An addendum regarding that DECLINATION map which appeared in last week’s blog , is that you can find your solar altitude (local sun angle at solar noon) by computing (for the southern hemisphere) 90-L-D, where L is our latitude in degrees South,  and D is the declination.

(In Northern Hemisphere  it is 90-L+D, where L is Latitude in degrees North).

SO

At the equinox, latitude L of Auckland is say 37 degrees so 90-L-D is 90-37-0 = 53 degrees.

At winter solstice D is +24.5 so 90-L-D is 90-37-24.5= 28.5 degrees

At summer solstice D is -24.5 so 90-L-D is 90-37+24.5= 77.5 degrees

 

MJO What is it and what might it do?

MJO stands for Madden Julian Oscillation, and can be thought of as being a wave of extra convection or shower activity that travels eastwards around the planet, in the tropics once every 30-60 days taking around a week to pass by.

It was discovered in 1971 by Roland Madden and Paul Julian of NCAR (US national centre for Atmospheric research), and as it passes it triggers extra cloud and rain. This wet phase is followed by a dry phase.

The normal diagram used for following MJO is a phase diagram as found at

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml#forecast

 

In this diagram, the “ Maritime Continent “ is another name for Indonesia/Papua New Guinea. It shows the expected position and strength of the wet phase of the MJO travelling westwards (right to left in this diagram) next few weeks, but one with little strength.

Another diagram we use is the OLR diagram. OLR= Outgoing radiation and is lowest (blue) when blocked by cloud and rain, and highest (yellow/orange) in reasonably clear skies. As a mnemonic, think Blue for “bubbly” and Yellow for “mellow” This diagram shows the wet phase of the MJO having an impact on the western Pacific during the coming week, and then fading as it gets further east.

 

Meteo France have used this data to produce a probability diagram of Cyclone formation during the next three weeks, as seen at www.meteo.nc/nouvelle-caledonie/cyclone/coin-des-experts

These maps reach their strongest probability of a cyclone occurring in the region of TC VERONICA, and second highest but looking rather weak, chance is between New Caledonia and Fiji

 

THE TROPICS

Latest cyclone activity as at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and TCFP tropical Cyclone Formation Potential as seen at www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html

 

TC JOANINHA is over the open sea in South Indian Ocean. VERONICA is skirting NW Australia, and TREVOR is going inland and has just been downgraded.

The MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) wave of increased activity is travelling east into the Western Pacific this week, and it is weakening. There is likely to be increased activity between Solomon Islands and Vanuatu/Fiji.

Rain in the past week was strongest near the cyclones. It has weakened a little along the Pacific ITCZ.

See trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/big_global_accumlation.gif

The “mirror CZ” continues just south of the equator in the eastern Pacific, affecting those sailing between Galapagos and Marquesas.

 

WEATHER ZONES

SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.

The SPCZ is active over Papua New Guinea and from Solomon Islands to Vanuatu/Fiji this week. A low may form over the Fiji/Tongan area by the end of the week, travelling to the southeast

 

Subtropical ridge (STR)

HIGH to east of NZ tonight is expected to travel slowly east, lingering near 40S 165W. Expect enhanced trade winds on its northern side, between 20 and 30 South.

Next HIGH from Australian Bight is expected to travel east across Bass Strait around Wednesday and around the South Island on Thursday, then off to the east along 45 to 40South.

 

Australia/Tasman Sea / New Zealand

Deep Low is expected to travel southeast across South Tasman Sea from Monday to Wednesday and  associated front should cross New Zealand on Thursday.

A small but intense low may deepen off Sydney on Friday, and then widen outwards and travel south/southeast late this week.

 

Panama to Marquesas

The northerly winds are still over 20 knots at times around Panama, but for a lull on local Monday, and then relaxing from local Thursday.

There is a good tail current to north end of Galapagos, then go to 6S 100W, to avoid the “mirror convergence zone” along around 5 South,

 

Port Vallarta to Marquesas

There is a Tejuantepecer blast forecast to peak from Monday to Wednesday, (for background see en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tehuantepecer)

However, winds around Puerto Vallarta are likely to be OK for departure anytime this week.

Weak ITCZ likely between 6N and 3N, and then a “mirror CZ” near 3 to 5S

 

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.

Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/

Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).

Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.

Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 6427 7762212

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Bob blog17 March 2019

WEATHERGRAM

YOTREPS

 

Compiled Sun 17 March 2019

Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

 

First, I must tell you all that I (as with the rest of Kiwiland) was shocked and saddened by the senseless killing on Friday in Christchurch. My thoughts are with the victims. I can’t fully concentrate on meteorology when all  this inhumane violence is around, so this week’s blog is a brief one. See Image is from www.facebook.com/YeoCartoons/ (Thanks to Shaun Yeo)

Give help at givealittle.co.nz/cause/christchurch-shooting-victims-fund ($~4millionNZD already donated)

 

Second, since my DNA is apparently 95% traceable to Ireland, I can wish you all a Happy Saint Paddy’s day today. Sláinte

 

EQUINOX

The sun is directly over the equator on Wednesday 20 March 2158 UTC (in NZ that’s Thursday morning around 11am NZDT), and that’s the equinox. Australia, New Zealand and Samoa switch from Daylight or Summer time to standard time on 7 April, the first Sunday in April.

 

World Met Day

Another day worth noting this week is World Met Day on 23 March. This marks the anniversary of the opening of the World Meteorological Organisation as part of the UN in 1950. This year’s theme is THE SUN, THE EARTH AND THE WEATHER

The Sun delivers the energy that powers all life on Earth. It drives the weather, ocean currents and the hydrological cycle.

It shapes our mood and our daily activities. It is the inspiration for music, photography and art.

See worldmetday.wmo.int/en/  for an enjoyable encounter with nature.

 

THE TROPICS

During the past week TC IDAI made land fall over Mozambique and Zimbabwe bringing death and destruction www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-47595863 (over 30 deaths during IDAI after a week of at least 66 deaths from floods). Flash floods in Indonesia over last few hours have killed at least 50 people. It is sad but true, that “Weather is the biggest terrorist on this planet”.

Cyclone track from wunderground is at www.wunderground.com/hurricane/southern-indian/2019/Tropical-Cyclone-Idai

Note that month should be 3 rather than 4.

Latest cyclone activity as at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and TCFP tropical Cyclone Formation Potential as seen at www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html

TC SAVANNAH is over the open sea in South Indian Ocean , and Depression 03W is moving towards Philippines and Depression 92P near Papua New Guinea, is moving toward Queensland.

The MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) wave of increased activity is travelling east across Northern Australia this week, and so we can anticipate increasing activity in the South Pacific over the next few weeks.

Rain in the past week has intensified around Papua New Guinea and along the Pacific ITCZ west of the dateline. It remains weak elsewhere in the South Pacific.  See trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/big_global_accumlation.gif

The “mirror CZ” continues just south of the equator in the eastern Pacific, affecting those sailing between Galapagos and Marquesas.

 

WEATHER ZONES

SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.

The SPCZ is active over Papua New Guinea and the northern Coral Sea, with a tropical Low 92P having a good chance of becoming a cyclone as it heads towards northern Queensland. Activity on the SPCZ is also expected to intensify between the Coral sea and Vanuatu this week.

The week starts with a Low on a convergence zone between Niue and Southern cooks. This low is expected to move off to the south and that should weaken the shower activity over French Polynesia.

 

Subtropical ridge (STR)

HIGH over southern NZ tonight is expected to travel east along 45 South.

The next two HIGHS are also expected to travel south along around 45 to 50S – it’s that time of year that the HIGHS stay south (the equinox).

This fills half the Tasman Sea with easterly winds good only for sailing west.

 

Australia/Tasman Sea / New Zealand

The western half of the Tasman Sea is expected to be dominated by a trough this week—with variable winds and some rain, also with northerly winds on its eastern side, good for sailing.

 

Panama to Marquesas

There has recently been a NE blast across Panama and winds/waves are expected to be uncomfortably high for departure until Tuesday, and it may get uncomfortable again from Thursday to Saturday this week. Looking easier next week.

There is a good tail current to north end of Galapagos, then go to 6S 100W, to avoid the building “mirror convergence zone” along around 5 South,

 

Port Vallarta to Marquesas

There is a Tejuantepecer blast occurring this week and another expected at the end of March (for background see en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tehuantepecer) However, winds around Puerto Vallarta are likely to be OK for departure anytime this week.

Weak ITCZ likely between 6N and 3N, and then a “mirror CZ” near 3 to 5S

 

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.

Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/

Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).

Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.

Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 6427 7762212

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Bob Blog 10 March

WEATHERGRAM

YOTREPS

Compiled Sun 10 March 2019

 

Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

 

The state of the ENSO = on watch for an El Nino, mixed messages.

ENSO stands for El Nino/Southern Oscillation.    El Nino is the name given when the ocean surface temperatures around the eastern equatorial Pacific rise warmer than normal.  This happens when the trade winds fade. El Nino events, with warmer than normal seas, draw the subtropical ridge closer to the equator. Their comings and goings can last several months, maybe over a year, and so their status can be used to help forecast the weather for the coming season.

During February we has an MJO and an extended monsoon trough and that weakened the trade winds and has indeed helped warm the target area for an El Nino.  This can be seen by looking at the latest Sea surface temperature SST anomaly map.  These trade winds have now returned to normal, suggesting that the SST may ease over the next few weeks.

 Sea surface temperatures can be seen at www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/index.html

Of note, there is also a warm stretch from Fiji to French Polynesia and another from Hobart to the central Tasman Sea.

Also of note; the Gulf Stream off the east coast of North America is much warmer than normal.  Overall, the yellow/red outweighs the blue.

 

The Ocean:

NINO3.4 is the parameter which measures the SST anomaly in the target region in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean for El Nino or La Nina. This plays with the heat budget of the atmosphere and thus with the weather patterns.

I have gone to the Bureau of Met page for latest NINO 3.4 data at www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/indices.shtml, and it shows the weekly temperature anomalies since Jan 2015, with a cool period late 2016/early2017, and again in late 2017/early 2018. A warm period started in mid-2018 and briefly reached the El Nino threshold in late 2018, and the dropped and rose in Jan and Feb.  

 

The Atmosphere:

The SOI or Southern Oscillation Index (30 day running mean) comes from the atmosphere and sums up the whole weather pattern over the South Pacific in one number. It is based on the standardized difference in the barometer readings between Tahiti and Darwin, in other words it counts the average number of isobars between them on the weather map. When the SOI is more than plus one (standard deviation from its mean) for more than a month we call it a LA NINA event, and when it stays more than minus one we call it an EL NINO event.

Over the past year, the SOI has fluctuated up and down.  There was a period of negative SOI back in September/October 2018, but during December/January the SOI went positive, and in February, when the trade winds faded, it went negative. Trade winds have returned to normal , so maybe it will relax during the next few weeks,

 

SOI is seen at www.farmonlineweather.com.au/climate/indicator_enso.jsp?c=soi&p=weekly

(Note that this graph on the vertical axis 10= 1 standard deviation)

 

CPC/IRI predictions from iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

The International Research Institute of the Climate Prediction Centre compiles data from several ENSO prediction models. Sadly, during this time of the year, around the equinox and the following 6 weeks, the models usually do not perform as well as other times of the year.

The model predictions for the Nino 3.4 SST anomaly is that the seas ae likely to stay the same or slightly cool during the next few months, but some go for a slight increase. Mixed messages.

 

THE TROPICS

Latest cyclone activity as at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and TCFP tropical Cyclone Formation Potential as seen at www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html

TC HALEH has travelled into the South Ocean, and TC IDAI is in-between Madagascar and Mozambique.

The MJO wave of increased activity is travelling east across the Indian Ocean, and may reach northern Australia over next few weeks encouraging the formation of a monsoon trough, followed by another possible period of Tropical Cyclone formation in the South Pacific late in March.

Rain in the past week has faded in the South Pacific, but intensified across the equator around Papua New Guinea and along the ITCZ in western and central pacific.  See trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/big_global_accumlation.gif

As is usual at this time of the year, as the overhead sun travels from 5S to 3S, a “mirror Convergence Zone” of the ITCZ has formed just south of the equator in the eastern Pacific.

This “mirror CZ” may last for a month or two, affecting those sailing between Galapagos and Marquesas.

   

WEATHER ZONES

SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.

The SPCZ is rebuilding over Papua New Guinea and around Fiji, and remains weak elsewhere.

There are some near equatorial westerly winds along the northern coasts of Papua New Guinea and western Solomons, and a Tropical Depression may form between PNG and Solomons by end of this week and drift southwards.

There is a weak convergence zone around southern parts of French Polynesia this week.

 

Subtropical ridge (STR)

HIGH over southern NZ is expected to travel off to northeast.

Next HIGH travelling eastwards across Bass Strait by Wednesday and then around southern NZ on Thursday and then off to the east. 

Next HIGH is likely to travel southeastwards across Tasmania around Sat/Sun.

 

Australia/Tasman Sea / New Zealand

Trough that crossed the North island on Friday developed a Low over Auckland on Saturday and this is expected to travel slowly southwards towards Chathams by mid-week then fade.

Trough from Southern Ocean expected to intensify over Tasman sea on Tuesday then cross South Island on Wednesday and North Island on Thursday followed by a brief southerly flow.

Low is expected to deepen off Sydney on Friday and then go southwards.

 

Panama to Marquesas

There should be good northerly wind for starters around Panama until local Wednesday and then light winds until late next week.  There is a good tail current to north end of Galapagos, then go to 6S 100W, to avoid the building “mirror convergence zone” along around 5 South,

 

Port Vallarta to Marquesas

Winds around Puerto Vallarta are likely to be best for departure around local Tuesday otherwise rather light for starters. Weak ITCZ likely between 6N and 3N, and then a “mirror CZ” near 3 to 5S.

 

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.

Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/

Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).

Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.

Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 6427 7762212

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

Bobgram

WEATHERGRAM

YOTREPS

Compiled Sun 3 March  2019

 

Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

 

REVIEW of FEBRUARY

Sea Surface temperature anomalies as at start of this month may be seen at www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/indicator_sst.jsp?lt=global&lc=global&c=ssta

The eastern equatorial Pacific around Galapagos is the focal region for ENSO and the warm area there seems to have expanded in the past month. The other main change during February is that seas between Japan and Philippines and along the China Sea have become warmer than normal. Also, the South Indian Ocean. The Tasman Sea warm area has weakened a little, and extended to the northeast of NZ. And the Southern Ocean is showing a lot of melt water, which is cooler than normal.

 

To see how the annual weather cycle and the seasons are working out, check the average isobar maps from

www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/slp_30b.fnl.html

The subtropical ridge in the southern hemisphere reaches its annual southern-most position in February and early March. It is stronger than normal from Indian Ocean and across Tasman Sea and to east of NZ.

The tropical South Pacific was affected by a strong MJO and a monsoonal trough, and this shows as low-pressure anomalies.

The low-pressure anomalies around the Arctic is related to the Polar vortex. Note that there is a large anomalous HIGH around the Antarctic.

Zooming into the NZ area, and comparing February with January shows that to north of NZ, the 1010hP (between light blue and dark blue) isobar is in much the same place, but further north the isobars in the tropics significantly lowered during February.

To the south of NZ, the 1010 line has shifted form near 45South to near 50South.

 

The rain during February can be seen at trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/thirty_day.html

This shows that during the past month, Vanuatu and Kiribati/Tuvalu were the wettest areas and (after the flooding in late Jan over norther Queensland), Northern Australia to the Philippines was much drier than normal.

 

THE TROPICS

Latest cyclone activity as at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and TCFP tropical Cyclone Formation Potential as seen at

www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html

TC WUTIP reached Cat 5 over open sea, but is now fading and recurving to the north.

TC HALEH has formed over South Indian Ocean,

This indicates that the MJO wave of increased activity is now in the Indian Ocean, and that the South Pacific can expect a relatively quiet time over the next two to three weeks (afte ra month of activity).

 

The weekly rain maps for the past 2 weeks clearly shows the slow path of TC OMA, WUTIP and POLA.

See trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/big_global_accumlation.gif

 

WEATHER ZONES

SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.

OMA and POLA have taken a lot of energy/moisture from the SPCZ and it is now weakening at 15 to 20S between Samoa and French Polynesia, and slowly redeveloping between equator and 7 South. The trade winds are back across the South pacific, so it is a good week to do some island hopping (westwards). As good as it gets in March, so if you have been waiting, then this is the week.

 

Subtropical ridge (STR)

HIGH travelling eastwards across North Island on Monday and then to east of NZ

Next HIGH is likely to travel eastwards across Tasmania around Thursday and around southern NZ on Sat/Sun.

 

Australia/Tasman Sea / New Zealand

Trough is expected to travel eastwards across New South Wales on Wednesday and then across Tasman sea. Its front should cross Northland on Saturday.

 

Panama to Marquesas

Light northerly winds for starters around Panama last week, but the forecast is for more useful northerly winds from local Tuesday to Friday. There is a good west-going north of Galapagos.

Then go SE to 5S 100W, to avoid the building “mirror convergence zone” along around 3 south, This CZ grows due to the sun being directly overhead these latitudes at this time of the year (reaches equator on 21st/Equinox)

 

Port Vallarta to Marquesas

There may light winds for starters over next few days, but a good northerly flow is likely for a start around 11 March, perhaps. Weak ITCZ likely between 5N and 2N, and then a “mirror CZ” near 3 to 4S

 

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 

If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.

Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/

Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).

Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.

Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 6427 7762212

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>