Bob Blog 28 Jan
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 28 January 2024
TROPICS
TANGGREK, and CANDICE are tropical depressions over Indian Ocean and KIRRILY
over inland north Australia. KIRRILY briefly reached Cat 3 before making
landfall near Townsville. These systems contain lots of rain but not much
wind.
The MJO, a burst of extra energy in the tropics, is now crossing the
Pacific, but is rather weak. Three is an increased risk for possible cyclone
development in the Coral Sea this week, and a low may well develop there
after mid-week.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is active and squally over the Coral Sea
and Vanuatu /Fiji with another branch lingering from Tonga across Southern
Cooks and Tahiti area.
Low L1 is expected to form near 30S and south of Tahiti by mid-week and then
go south.
Low L2 is expected to be a merger of troughs from Fiji and another from NZ
and should move off the south.
Low L3 is part of the monsoonal trough now sitting over northern Australia.
Low L4 might form between Vanuatu and Fiji this weekend and go east towards
Tonga along the SPCZ.
Low L5 is expected to travel east along 53S past the south of NZ on Saturday
3 Feb followed by large swells in the Tasman Sea. Avoid.
HIGH H1 should persist to south of L1, strengthening the easterly flow
between L1 and H1.
HIGH H2 should travel east and bring settled weather to NZ between 4 and 7
Feb for our national day.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check metbob.com to
see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
28 January 2024
21 January 2024
Bobgram
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 21 January 2024
My regards to those attending the AMS Annual meeting in Baltimore over the
next few days - this year's theme is LIVING IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT.
See annual.ametsoc.org/index.cfm/2024/
How much EXTRA energy has been stored in the ocean in 2023?
In 2023 the ocean absorbed 287 zettajoules of heat, an extra 15 zettajoules
of compared with 2022. What is a zettajoule? That is 10^21 joules. Humanity
uses about half a zettajoule of energy a year to fuel the entire global
economy. (The Guardian).
Another way to look this is to see how much energy is found in a typical
tropical cyclone. That seems to be around 6 x 10^14 Watts or 5x10^19 joules
per day, or 25x10^19 joules for a 5-day cyclone. That's .25 Zettajoules.
(from science.howstuffworks.com/)
So, the amount of heat absorbed by oceans last year was equivalent to 70
typical cyclones. More that one a week. Whenever conditions are ripe for
transporting this energy back into the atmosphere via water vapour, it will
express itself as extreme wind and rain.
TROPICS
TC ANGGREK formed in the south Indian Ocean well away from land. Tropical
depression 90P is forming in the Coral Sea and expected to move onto
Queensland later this week. AVOID.
There is a Monsoonal low ~995hPa inland Australia and south of Darwin,
weakening. near Madagascar follows ALVARO, which bothered southern
Madagascar last week.
The MJO, a burst of extra energy in the tropics, is now over Northern
Australia and expected to travel into the South Pacific over next few weeks,
increasing the potential for cyclone formation.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is strengthening between north Australia
and Vanuatu across the Coral Sea and lapping onto Fiji at times. Tropical
depression P90 is expected to intensify into a cyclone and make landfall
over Queensland late local Thursday.
A subtropical low L1 to south of Tahiti is expected to travel slowly south.
Another subtropical low L3 may form near Fiji mid-week and then travel south
toward NZ.
MID LATITUDES
Low L2 belongs to a trough that is expected to cross NZ on Monday and
Tuesday with scattered rain warnings and then move off to the southeast.
High H1 is expected to cross Tasmania on Monday, then the Tasman Sea on
Tuesday and Wednesday, then central NZ on Thursday and North Island on
Friday.
Low L4 is expected to cross Tasmania on Wednesday and reach southern NZ on
Friday.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check metbob.com to
see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 21 January 2024
My regards to those attending the AMS Annual meeting in Baltimore over the
next few days - this year's theme is LIVING IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT.
See annual.ametsoc.org/index.cfm/2024/
How much EXTRA energy has been stored in the ocean in 2023?
In 2023 the ocean absorbed 287 zettajoules of heat, an extra 15 zettajoules
of compared with 2022. What is a zettajoule? That is 10^21 joules. Humanity
uses about half a zettajoule of energy a year to fuel the entire global
economy. (The Guardian).
Another way to look this is to see how much energy is found in a typical
tropical cyclone. That seems to be around 6 x 10^14 Watts or 5x10^19 joules
per day, or 25x10^19 joules for a 5-day cyclone. That's .25 Zettajoules.
(from science.howstuffworks.com/)
So, the amount of heat absorbed by oceans last year was equivalent to 70
typical cyclones. More that one a week. Whenever conditions are ripe for
transporting this energy back into the atmosphere via water vapour, it will
express itself as extreme wind and rain.
TROPICS
TC ANGGREK formed in the south Indian Ocean well away from land. Tropical
depression 90P is forming in the Coral Sea and expected to move onto
Queensland later this week. AVOID.
There is a Monsoonal low ~995hPa inland Australia and south of Darwin,
weakening. near Madagascar follows ALVARO, which bothered southern
Madagascar last week.
The MJO, a burst of extra energy in the tropics, is now over Northern
Australia and expected to travel into the South Pacific over next few weeks,
increasing the potential for cyclone formation.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is strengthening between north Australia
and Vanuatu across the Coral Sea and lapping onto Fiji at times. Tropical
depression P90 is expected to intensify into a cyclone and make landfall
over Queensland late local Thursday.
A subtropical low L1 to south of Tahiti is expected to travel slowly south.
Another subtropical low L3 may form near Fiji mid-week and then travel south
toward NZ.
MID LATITUDES
Low L2 belongs to a trough that is expected to cross NZ on Monday and
Tuesday with scattered rain warnings and then move off to the southeast.
High H1 is expected to cross Tasmania on Monday, then the Tasman Sea on
Tuesday and Wednesday, then central NZ on Thursday and North Island on
Friday.
Low L4 is expected to cross Tasmania on Wednesday and reach southern NZ on
Friday.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check metbob.com to
see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
14 January 2024
Bobgram 14Jan 2024
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 14 January 2024
How 2023 spread of world temperature compare with pat 80 years.
The graph at www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-67861954
shows a histogram for each year since 1940 and reveals the trend of Climate change .
A new edition of NOAA's Climate spiral graphic is at svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/5190/
Recent measurements in the ocean are outstanding...
The annual MONSOON reaches Darwin a few days ago, around a week or two LATE.
Rain starts, pressure drops and a gusty NW wind arrives.
TROPICS
TC BELAL near Madagascar follows ALVARO, which bothered southern Madagascar last week.
The MJO, a burst of extra energy in the tropics, is moving from Indian Ocean towards NW Australia over next few weeks, increasing the potential for cyclone formation around the "top end" of Australia.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is strengthening between north Australia and Vanuatu across the Coral Sea and lapping onto Fiji at times.
A tropical low L2 may develop near Fiji by mid-week and go south.
Another tropical Low L3 may deepen over Coral Se by end of the week. Keep a WATCH on this.
HIGHS and LOWS
HIGH H1 is lingering east of NZ.
There is a trough crossing NZ tonight and Monday.
This trough is expected to be followed by High H2 from Tasmania.
And following that L1 should cross Tasmania on Wednesday and Thursday with peak southerly swell early Friday.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 14 January 2024
How 2023 spread of world temperature compare with pat 80 years.
The graph at www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-67861954
shows a histogram for each year since 1940 and reveals the trend of Climate change .
A new edition of NOAA's Climate spiral graphic is at svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/5190/
Recent measurements in the ocean are outstanding...
The annual MONSOON reaches Darwin a few days ago, around a week or two LATE.
Rain starts, pressure drops and a gusty NW wind arrives.
TROPICS
TC BELAL near Madagascar follows ALVARO, which bothered southern Madagascar last week.
The MJO, a burst of extra energy in the tropics, is moving from Indian Ocean towards NW Australia over next few weeks, increasing the potential for cyclone formation around the "top end" of Australia.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is strengthening between north Australia and Vanuatu across the Coral Sea and lapping onto Fiji at times.
A tropical low L2 may develop near Fiji by mid-week and go south.
Another tropical Low L3 may deepen over Coral Se by end of the week. Keep a WATCH on this.
HIGHS and LOWS
HIGH H1 is lingering east of NZ.
There is a trough crossing NZ tonight and Monday.
This trough is expected to be followed by High H2 from Tasmania.
And following that L1 should cross Tasmania on Wednesday and Thursday with peak southerly swell early Friday.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
09 January 2024
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07 January 2024
Bob Blog
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 7 January 2024
A review of last month's weather
Here is a link to a YouTube clip giving an animated loop of the isobars and
streamlines in the South Pacific for the last month at youtu.be/vleK8qYfAZ8
During early December a MJO period helped activate Tropical cyclone JASPER
that made land fall between around 12 December Cairns and Port Douglas with
record breaking rain.
The remainder of the month was relatively quiet.
Sea Surface temperature anomalies from psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.shtml
There is now a stretch of warner than normal sea from Queensland to the
dateline northeast of NZ.
This may well herald a cyclone path over next few weeks.
Average isobars for past month (below)
The Siberian HIGH has expanded and intensified. In the Southern Hemisphere,
the subtropical ridge remains in the Australian Bight and has shifted south
of New Caledonia. It appears to be slightly weaker than last month. A heat
trough has developed over mainland Australia.
Pressure anomalies for past month (below)
Pressures are now higher than normal over Russia and into the NW Pacific.
The South Pacific Sub tropical ridge is well marked don to around 50S. the
South Pacific convergence zone is weak.
Zooming into the NZ area
The 1015 isobar has shifted south across Australia and New Zealand., also to
south of New Caledonia.
TROPICS
TC ALVARO, the first of 2024, brought heavy rain and strong winds to
southern Madagascar after forming over the Mozambique Channel
The MJO, a burst of extra energy in the tropics, is moving from Indian Ocean
towards NW Australia over next few weeks. next few weeks.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is weak and mainly between Vanuatu and
Samoa with another branch about the Southern Cooks.
HIGHS and LOWS
Quirt week ahead.
HIGH H1 is lingering east of NZ.
Low L1 is crossing Tasmania tonight and deepening in South Tasman on
Tuesday/Wednesday and South Island on Thursday /Friday.
Low L2 east of Niue tonight is expected to travel off to the SE next few
days.
Low L3 is expected to form southeast of New Caledonia by mid-week and then
travel SW towards Lord Howe by Friday then maybe SE reaching NZ over the
weekend.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check metbob.com to
see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 7 January 2024
A review of last month's weather
Here is a link to a YouTube clip giving an animated loop of the isobars and
streamlines in the South Pacific for the last month at youtu.be/vleK8qYfAZ8
During early December a MJO period helped activate Tropical cyclone JASPER
that made land fall between around 12 December Cairns and Port Douglas with
record breaking rain.
The remainder of the month was relatively quiet.
Sea Surface temperature anomalies from psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.shtml
There is now a stretch of warner than normal sea from Queensland to the
dateline northeast of NZ.
This may well herald a cyclone path over next few weeks.
Average isobars for past month (below)
The Siberian HIGH has expanded and intensified. In the Southern Hemisphere,
the subtropical ridge remains in the Australian Bight and has shifted south
of New Caledonia. It appears to be slightly weaker than last month. A heat
trough has developed over mainland Australia.
Pressure anomalies for past month (below)
Pressures are now higher than normal over Russia and into the NW Pacific.
The South Pacific Sub tropical ridge is well marked don to around 50S. the
South Pacific convergence zone is weak.
Zooming into the NZ area
The 1015 isobar has shifted south across Australia and New Zealand., also to
south of New Caledonia.
TROPICS
TC ALVARO, the first of 2024, brought heavy rain and strong winds to
southern Madagascar after forming over the Mozambique Channel
The MJO, a burst of extra energy in the tropics, is moving from Indian Ocean
towards NW Australia over next few weeks. next few weeks.
WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is weak and mainly between Vanuatu and
Samoa with another branch about the Southern Cooks.
HIGHS and LOWS
Quirt week ahead.
HIGH H1 is lingering east of NZ.
Low L1 is crossing Tasmania tonight and deepening in South Tasman on
Tuesday/Wednesday and South Island on Thursday /Friday.
Low L2 east of Niue tonight is expected to travel off to the SE next few
days.
Low L3 is expected to form southeast of New Caledonia by mid-week and then
travel SW towards Lord Howe by Friday then maybe SE reaching NZ over the
weekend.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check metbob.com to
see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
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