Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 26 December 2021
Sydney to Hobart as challenging as ever: They are off and facing strong
southerly winds and strong eddies of current for their first nigh. 10% of
the initial fleet of 90+ yachts had to retire at the start due to some crew
being close contacts to people who tested positive with the Covid 19 virus.
And in a few days a lull should reach Bass Strait.
The end of 2021
It's been an interesting year, but probably a year that no sailors would
like to repeat.
Next Friday night when you toast your friends and fellow travellers, there
is a less well known verse to Auld lang syne which I'd like you to share:
When translated into English it goes
We two have paddled in the stream,
from morning sun till dine;
But seas between us broad have roared
since the days of auld lang syne.
Enjoy the change in calendar.
TROPICS
There is a strong chance that a new tropical system may develop over
Northern Australia this week. The risk over the South Pacific is less this
week than last week, but likely to increase during January.
WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
The SPCZ remains active from Solomons to Tuvalu to Fiji/Samoa.
Tropical Lows over northern Australia may travel East over Queensland.
HIGHS and LOWS
LOW L1 to east of Chathams Island is expected to travel off to the
southeast.
HIGH H1 over northern NZ tonight is travelling east along 35S this week,
allowing a Front and L2 to travel east across NZ on Monday and Tuesday, a
repeat of last week.
HIGH H2 is Australian Bight is expected to travel east along 35S to reach
North Island by New year, following the path of H1/
After a period of SW winds in Opua from late Tues to Friday, looks OK to
arrive there early in Jan.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
25 December 2021
19 December 2021
Bob Blog 19 Dec
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 19 December2021
THE ROLEX SYDNEY HOBART YACHT RACE 2021
There is expected to be a southerly for the start of this years Boxing Day
start to eh Sydney to Hobart yacht race. At this stage the GFS model is
making more of this southerly than the EC model
TROPICS
Tropical cyclone RAI brought a death toll of 76 or more to Philippines last
week and is now recurving in the China Sea and heading towards Taiwan.
There is a strong chance that a new tropical system may develop over Vanuatu
by the end if this week and then could perhaps head for Fiji or south of
Fiji during Christmas or soon after.
WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
HIGHS and LOWS
LOW L1 is forming in a trough west of Fiji and is expected to go towards the
northeast of NZ by mid-week and then off to the southeast.
HIGH H1 over northern NZ tonight is travelling east along 35S this week,
allowing L1 to come south in its wake.
LOW L2 is forming in a convergence zone over Southern Cooks around mid-week
and then travelling southwest and south into the zone left behind by the
remains of L1.
LOW L3 is expected to form over northern Vanuatu by the end of the week,
And next weekend there may be a tropical low forming over northern
Queensland.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 19 December2021
THE ROLEX SYDNEY HOBART YACHT RACE 2021
There is expected to be a southerly for the start of this years Boxing Day
start to eh Sydney to Hobart yacht race. At this stage the GFS model is
making more of this southerly than the EC model
TROPICS
Tropical cyclone RAI brought a death toll of 76 or more to Philippines last
week and is now recurving in the China Sea and heading towards Taiwan.
There is a strong chance that a new tropical system may develop over Vanuatu
by the end if this week and then could perhaps head for Fiji or south of
Fiji during Christmas or soon after.
WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
HIGHS and LOWS
LOW L1 is forming in a trough west of Fiji and is expected to go towards the
northeast of NZ by mid-week and then off to the southeast.
HIGH H1 over northern NZ tonight is travelling east along 35S this week,
allowing L1 to come south in its wake.
LOW L2 is forming in a convergence zone over Southern Cooks around mid-week
and then travelling southwest and south into the zone left behind by the
remains of L1.
LOW L3 is expected to form over northern Vanuatu by the end of the week,
And next weekend there may be a tropical low forming over northern
Queensland.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
12 December 2021
bob blog 12 Dec
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 12 December2021
The first tropical cyclone for this South Pacific cyclone season has just
been named by the Bureau of Meteorology, Australia as RUBY. It is in the
Coral Sea and may reach New Caledonia during Monday night/Tuesday and pass
to the northeast of NZ on Thursday
An active pulse of extra convection, called an MJO (Madden Julian
oscillation) is moving along the equator and should disturb our weather for
the next two to three weeks. The MJO was named in 1971, fifty years ago,
when Roland Madden and Paul Julian studied equatorial wind data. It is a
pulse of extra energy that forms in the Indian Ocean then travels eastwards
along the equator until it fades near the dateline. It can be tracked
watching cloud and rain patterns and is known to increase the risk of
cyclone formation.
At present the zone of extra convection is expected to linger over the
South pacific for the next three weeks.
A site to check is the sophisticated modelling done by Meteo France as shown
on the New Caledonian weather web site at
www.meteo.nc/nouvelle-caledonie/cyclone/coin-des-experts. This shows the
results of a regression model using 2 predictors for the state of the MJO, 3
to measure ENSO and IOD, and one to measure the climatological seasonal
cycle. Their latest map shows that there is a high probability of a cyclone
forming between 19 and 25 dec around Fiji.
EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES
This MJO has triggered a zone of strong west-northwest winds along the
equator. When this happens in December it normally is a precursor to
tropical cyclones. This one has almost produced a twin of tropical
depressions, but these two are perhaps too far apart to feed off each other.
TROPICS
Cyclone RUBY is now the Coral Sea and there is a tropical depression east of
Philippines,
The 'wind accumulation' setting in Windy.com set to next ten days gives an
indication to each model's current forecast for each cyclone path, showing a
storm over Philippines and a gale over New Caledonia is likely this week
WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
The SPCZ remains active from Solomons to Fiji. TC RUBY is in the Cora Sea
and expected to pass by northern part of New Caledonia and near Loyalty
Island during Monday night/Tuesday.
HIGHS and LOWS
LOW L1 is just a trough over southern Cooks tonight and is expected to form
on local Monday and go southeast and peak on Wednesday.
HIGH H1as been a blocking high east of NZ last week but is this week
expected to travel off to the northeast.
LOW L2 is in the mid Tasman Sea and expected to cross central NZ on
Wednesday, preceded by an active front on Tuesday night, and followed by a
south to southwest flow on Thu/Fri/Sat.
HIGH H2 is expected to cross Tasmania on Thursday and then go northeast
across the Tasman Sea. into south Tasman Sea this weekend and then follows
H1.
L3 is expected to travel from 50s to 55s, south of Tasmania on Wednesday and
south of NZ by Friday.
The outlook for next week is that ANOTHER TROPICAL LOW may from and travel
south near Vanuatu, and another trough may cross the Tasman Sea. Time your
travel to avoid these.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 12 December2021
The first tropical cyclone for this South Pacific cyclone season has just
been named by the Bureau of Meteorology, Australia as RUBY. It is in the
Coral Sea and may reach New Caledonia during Monday night/Tuesday and pass
to the northeast of NZ on Thursday
An active pulse of extra convection, called an MJO (Madden Julian
oscillation) is moving along the equator and should disturb our weather for
the next two to three weeks. The MJO was named in 1971, fifty years ago,
when Roland Madden and Paul Julian studied equatorial wind data. It is a
pulse of extra energy that forms in the Indian Ocean then travels eastwards
along the equator until it fades near the dateline. It can be tracked
watching cloud and rain patterns and is known to increase the risk of
cyclone formation.
At present the zone of extra convection is expected to linger over the
South pacific for the next three weeks.
A site to check is the sophisticated modelling done by Meteo France as shown
on the New Caledonian weather web site at
www.meteo.nc/nouvelle-caledonie/cyclone/coin-des-experts. This shows the
results of a regression model using 2 predictors for the state of the MJO, 3
to measure ENSO and IOD, and one to measure the climatological seasonal
cycle. Their latest map shows that there is a high probability of a cyclone
forming between 19 and 25 dec around Fiji.
EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES
This MJO has triggered a zone of strong west-northwest winds along the
equator. When this happens in December it normally is a precursor to
tropical cyclones. This one has almost produced a twin of tropical
depressions, but these two are perhaps too far apart to feed off each other.
TROPICS
Cyclone RUBY is now the Coral Sea and there is a tropical depression east of
Philippines,
The 'wind accumulation' setting in Windy.com set to next ten days gives an
indication to each model's current forecast for each cyclone path, showing a
storm over Philippines and a gale over New Caledonia is likely this week
WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
The SPCZ remains active from Solomons to Fiji. TC RUBY is in the Cora Sea
and expected to pass by northern part of New Caledonia and near Loyalty
Island during Monday night/Tuesday.
HIGHS and LOWS
LOW L1 is just a trough over southern Cooks tonight and is expected to form
on local Monday and go southeast and peak on Wednesday.
HIGH H1as been a blocking high east of NZ last week but is this week
expected to travel off to the northeast.
LOW L2 is in the mid Tasman Sea and expected to cross central NZ on
Wednesday, preceded by an active front on Tuesday night, and followed by a
south to southwest flow on Thu/Fri/Sat.
HIGH H2 is expected to cross Tasmania on Thursday and then go northeast
across the Tasman Sea. into south Tasman Sea this weekend and then follows
H1.
L3 is expected to travel from 50s to 55s, south of Tasmania on Wednesday and
south of NZ by Friday.
The outlook for next week is that ANOTHER TROPICAL LOW may from and travel
south near Vanuatu, and another trough may cross the Tasman Sea. Time your
travel to avoid these.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
05 December 2021
Bob Blog 5 dec
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 5 December 2021
REVIEW OF THE LAST MONTH (November 2021)
As an addendum for my review of November: MetService and NIWA confirm that
November 2021 was the warmest November on record in New Zealand, and BoM in
Australia confirm it was the wettest November on record in Australia.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
These have been streaming cloud across the north pacific recently from the
tropics to Western US and Canada, bringing record-breaking rainfall.
The NOAA weather map on 4 Dec shows a 1044hPa HIGH and a Low bringing a cold
front to Hawaii
which triggered a blizzard warning for Mauna Kea.
See
www.sfgate.com/hawaii/article/blizzard-warning-flooding-kona-low-Hawaii-1667
2184.php
A Kona Low is a subtropical cyclone that can feed south to southwest winds
onto Hawaiian Islands.
TROPICS
TC NYATOH formed east of Philippines last Monday and travelled north and
faded by last Friday.
TC TERATAI briefly formed last Wednesday to southwest of Jakarta. It was the
second named storm for the Australian area this season, with PADDY being the
first, in the South Indian Ocean from 22-24 November.
There are zones of potential development east of Philippines and over
Solomons as a burst of extra convection is expected to arrive in the western
pacific over the next week or so because of an incoming MJO. The GFS and EC
models are now picking that a tropical Low is likely to form between Solomon
Islands and northern Vanuatu late this week and this might then deepen and
go southeast next week. More on this next Sunday, but those who have been
delaying their tropical exit this season should heed the signs and get
going.
WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
The SPCZ is becoming more intense this week and expected to drift south onto
Fiji to Southern Cooks.
HIGHS and LOWS
LOW L1 south of Tahiti is expected to linger around 30S and fade late in the
week.
TROF from central Tasman Sea to central NZ on Monday is expected to go off
to the east-southeast.
HIGH H1 east of Tasmania is NZ is expected to swing past southern NZ on
Tuesday and rebuild along 40S across the Pacific.
LOW L2 is expected move off inland Australia and deepen east of Sydney by
Thursday then travel across South Island by Saturday, leaving a centre west
of Westland.
HIGH H2 is get into south Tasman Sea this weekend and then follows H1.
L3 is expected to form between Solomon Islands and northern Vanuatu later
this week and deepen and go southeast next week.
Looks OK to sail to Opua and arrive before Tuesday 14 Dec, but there may be
strong winds and heavy swells over northern NZ 15-16 Dec.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 5 December 2021
REVIEW OF THE LAST MONTH (November 2021)
As an addendum for my review of November: MetService and NIWA confirm that
November 2021 was the warmest November on record in New Zealand, and BoM in
Australia confirm it was the wettest November on record in Australia.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
These have been streaming cloud across the north pacific recently from the
tropics to Western US and Canada, bringing record-breaking rainfall.
The NOAA weather map on 4 Dec shows a 1044hPa HIGH and a Low bringing a cold
front to Hawaii
which triggered a blizzard warning for Mauna Kea.
See
www.sfgate.com/hawaii/article/blizzard-warning-flooding-kona-low-Hawaii-1667
2184.php
A Kona Low is a subtropical cyclone that can feed south to southwest winds
onto Hawaiian Islands.
TROPICS
TC NYATOH formed east of Philippines last Monday and travelled north and
faded by last Friday.
TC TERATAI briefly formed last Wednesday to southwest of Jakarta. It was the
second named storm for the Australian area this season, with PADDY being the
first, in the South Indian Ocean from 22-24 November.
There are zones of potential development east of Philippines and over
Solomons as a burst of extra convection is expected to arrive in the western
pacific over the next week or so because of an incoming MJO. The GFS and EC
models are now picking that a tropical Low is likely to form between Solomon
Islands and northern Vanuatu late this week and this might then deepen and
go southeast next week. More on this next Sunday, but those who have been
delaying their tropical exit this season should heed the signs and get
going.
WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
The SPCZ is becoming more intense this week and expected to drift south onto
Fiji to Southern Cooks.
HIGHS and LOWS
LOW L1 south of Tahiti is expected to linger around 30S and fade late in the
week.
TROF from central Tasman Sea to central NZ on Monday is expected to go off
to the east-southeast.
HIGH H1 east of Tasmania is NZ is expected to swing past southern NZ on
Tuesday and rebuild along 40S across the Pacific.
LOW L2 is expected move off inland Australia and deepen east of Sydney by
Thursday then travel across South Island by Saturday, leaving a centre west
of Westland.
HIGH H2 is get into south Tasman Sea this weekend and then follows H1.
L3 is expected to form between Solomon Islands and northern Vanuatu later
this week and deepen and go southeast next week.
Looks OK to sail to Opua and arrive before Tuesday 14 Dec, but there may be
strong winds and heavy swells over northern NZ 15-16 Dec.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
03 December 2021
<> Negative SEO Services <>
If you ever need Negative SEO Serrvices, we offer it here
https://liftmyrank.co/negative-seo-services/
Unsubscribe:
https://mgdots.co/unsubscribe/
https://liftmyrank.co/negative-seo-services/
Unsubscribe:
https://mgdots.co/unsubscribe/
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)