Bob's Blog 19 April

WEATHERGRAM

YOTREPS

Compiled Sun 19 April 2020

 

Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

 

Review of the 2019-2020 Cyclone Season, from Bob McDavitt of MetBob

The tropics are quiet at present and the normal cyclone season ends on 1 May, so the cyclone season is hopefully over. The extended weather models are picking there may ne a Tropical depression around 4 May near Queensland , but the details are likely to change , and, fingers crossed,it may be just a depression.

 

For a  review of  the  cyclone   season  see en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_South_Pacific_cyclone_season

 

The season began with the arrival of Tropical Depression 01F on November 22, near the Solomon Islands, which would later become Tropical Cyclone Rita. Rita would then peak as a Category 3 on the Australian scale. Tropical Disturbance 02F was designated sometime later, but didn't last long after that. Sarai formed on December 23, lasting into the new year before finally ceasing to exist on January 2. Not too long after that, Tino formed and affected eastern Fiji and the surrounding area before dissipating. On January 24, a depression formed and dissipated the next day without been named. In early February, another low originally in the Australian region crossed the 160th meridian east and emerged in the South Pacific. It strengthened into severe tropical cyclone Uesi and affected New Caledonia and New Zealand. In mid-February four disturbances formed, 07F, 08F, 09F and 10F. 07F & 08F dissipated before becoming tropical depressions but the other 2 strengthened into tropical cyclones Vicky and Wasi. In mid-March, Gretel entered the basin. It dissipated shortly afterwards. In early April, Harold also entered the basin from the Australian region. It rapidly intensified into a Category 5 Severe tropical cyclone as it impacted Vanuatu, Fiji, and Tonga.

 

So far TINO was the most expensive (at present) and HAROLD the deadliest cyclone (27) for the season.

 

The Tropics

The latest cyclone activity report is at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and Tropical Cyclone Potential is from www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html

There are no cyclones around at present. The MJO quiet cycle is expected over the South Pacific for the next few weeks and then the nominal cyclone season ends at end of the month.

Extended weather models are starting to show a Tropical Depression near coastal Queensland by 4 My, but details are likely to change.

 

WEATHER ZONES

SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.

The SPCZ is expected to be quieter than normal this week, stretching from Coral Sea to Vanuatu toa passing trough between New Caledonia and south of Fiji (Wed-Fri) to Samoa to Southern Cooks/Tahiti area.

 

Subtropical ridge (STR)

HIGH that has been northeast of NZ last few days is now moving off to the east along 30-35S. Associated ridge is likely over NZ Monday night/Tuesday

Next HIGH is expected to move into Tasman Sea along 30-35S on Thursday then go east to reach northern NZ early next week north to 30S by Thursday and the east along 25-30S passing by north of NZ on Friday.

 

Tasman Sea /NZ/Aus

Passing trough over Northland tonight. Then Ok for departure this week

W/SW flow over remainder of NZ on Monday.

Light wind to NW winds on Tuesday, passing trough on Wed, Low and a trough on Thursday followed by disturbed westerlies

 

From Panama:

Light winds for departure this week, but there may be some northerly winds to 5N next week ITCZ mainly from 4N to 2N,

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If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.

Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/

Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).

Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.

Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 6427 7762212

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