WEATHERGRAM
YOTREPS
Compiled Sun 03 May 2020
Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.
COVID19 restrictions in NZ have dropped to Alert level 3
The national state of emergency remains in force. (It may now expire at 12.21pm Wednesday 6 May 2020.)
Yacht arrivals
Arrivals on superyachts and pleasure craft are not exempt from the current border closure.
New Zealand’s border is currently closed to almost all travellers to help stop the spread of COVID-19. Effectively, the New Zealand border is closed for all but essential travel. Only New Zealand citizens and residents, as well as some other specified travellers, are permitted to enter New Zealand without having to apply for an exception.
Visa waiver crew (including Australian citizens not resident in New Zealand) travelling on superyachts and pleasure craft are not exempt from the closure of New Zealand’s border, and current immigration instructions state they must be refused entry permission unless they meet one of the exceptions.
Border Advisory 19 is at: www.health.govt.nz/system/files/documents/pages/border_advisory_19_-_24_april_2020.docx
Border Controls are at: wwww.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-border-controls
The MNZ COVID 19 response team is contactable via MNZCovid-19@maritimenz.govt.nz ; please contact via this email address with any concerns or questions.
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REVIEW OF THE LAST MONTH (April 2020)
Sea Surface temperature anomalies as at start of May can be seen at https://www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/indicator_sst.jsp?lt=global&lc=global&c=ssta
Looking at the SST during the past few months we see a continuing warm pool in the Indian Ocean/Tasman Sea hot pool. This means a NEGATIVE Indian Ocean Dipole is possible later this year over Australia with above -average winter spring rainfall over parts of Southern Australia, perhaps.
According to BoM (Australia) ENSO (El Nino/southern Oscillation) is neutral and SAM (Southern Annular Mode) is currently negative but will go neutral so there are no major climate drivers active at present. That means that it is the short-term drivers (such as MJO) that we need to watch to work out weather changes in advance.
To see how the annual weather cycle and the seasons are working out, we can check the average isobar maps for past 30 days and their anomaly from www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/slp_30b.fnl.html
There is now a belt of low pressure near 40-50S from south of South Africa to the east of NZ. This indicates that the subtropical ridge is lingering around 20-30 South and also increases the troughs over NZ.
Zooming into the NZ area, and comparing monthly anomalies from February with now, shows that the subtropical ridge STR has strengthened (as far as the 1015 isobar is concerned) but hasn’t shifted much. The 1010hpa isobar remains in much the same place.
A HIGH over Antarctic and its easterly winds may play with SAM.
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The Tropics
The latest cyclone activity report is at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and Tropical Cyclone Potential is from www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html
There are no cyclones around at present
Extended weather models no longer show a Tropical Depression near coastal Queensland in early May (as was mentioned last week).
WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
The SPCZ spent the last few days visiting Southern Cooks/Tahiti, an d this week is expected to form again over PNG to New Caledonia to south of Fiji.
Tropical low expected to travel south east then south from between Fiji and Vanuatu on Thu 7 May to be east of NZ on Tue 12 May.
Subtropical ridge (STR)
HIGH 1030 moving into Tasman sea on Monday is expected to cross central NZ 1024hPa on Friday/Saturday. and then move off to the south east.
Tasman Sea /NZ/Aus
Passing squally trough over NZ on Monday then strong southerly flow on Tuesday, easing Thursday followed by incoming HIGH
Increasing NW winds over southern NZ on Saturday.
From Panama:
Northerly to light winds to 4:30N this week, ITCZ from 7N to 4N then light to moderate SW to S to SE winds to 2N NW of Galapagos then gradual swing to SE trade winds.
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If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 6427 7762212
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