Bob Blog

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

Compiled Sun 18 Oct 2020

 

After 5 doses of radiology, I've been discharged from hospital and so I've returned to blog writing, for now. 😊

 

The Bureau of Meteorology, Australia, have issued their Outlook for the coming Cyclone season. Usually there are 11 cyclones in Australian waters with around four making landfall. However, more cyclones than average are likely for Australia during Nov 1 2020 to 30 April 2021. This is due to La Nina conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean, and somewhat warmer than average ocean temperatures in Tasman Sea and to north of Australia. In La Nina years the first cyclone to develop around Australia usually occurs earlier than normal, around mid-December.

 

The Tropics

The latest cyclone activity report is at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and Tropical Cyclone Potential is from www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html

After a rush of cyclones in the past few weeks, it is currently quiet, but there are four areas of interest, and two zones of high potential for formation around the Philippines and the Mexican East coast.

 

SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.

SPCZ is expected to stretch from Solomon Islands to norther Vanuatu to between Fiji and Samoa. Trough over Tonga/Niue area today moving off to SE and across Southern Cooks with some 3m swells tomorrow.

 

Subtropical ridge (STR)

HIGH 1020-22hPa northeast of northern Z on Mon travelling east-southeast to 35S by mid-week, when it joins with another High travelling along 45S to east of the South Island. And this is followed by Friday with a NW flow over NZ.

 

Tasman troughs

Low in south Tasman Sea today, travelling across the South Island on Monday at 1000hPa, followed by SW flow on Tuesday.

A trough is likely in northwest Tasman Sea on Tuesday/Wednesday, weakening away on Thursday.

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