Bob Blog 7 Feb

Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

Compiled Sun 7 February 2021

 

The way we look at things is changing. We need a more sustainable engagement with nature says the UK Government Dasgupta Review –Highlights are at

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/957629/Dasgupta_Review_-_Headline_Messages.pdf

The Climate Change Commission of the NZ Government has issued a new report about how it hopes to decarbonise www.climatecommission.govt.nz/get-involved/our-advice-and-evidence/

People my age may remember the RV CALYPSO TV series on the undersea world with Jacques Cousteau back in the 1970s. This inspired my interest in nature and Oceanography. It has also inspired a NZ initiative into oceanic research see bluecradle.org/

 

REVIEW OF THE LAST MONTH (January 2021)

Sea Surface temperature anomalies as at

www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/indicator_sst.jsp?lt=global&lc=global&c=ssta

show La NINA (the cool eastern equatorial Pacific) seems to have peaked but is still continuing. The main change since last month is the intensification in the warm anomaly south of Tahiti. The seas between Fiji/New Caledonia and New Zealand are now slightly cooler than normal.

 

To see how the annual weather cycle and the seasons are working out, we can check the average isobar maps for past 30 days and their anomaly from www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/slp_30b.fnl.html

 

The sub-tropical ridges in both hemisphere is much the same as it was last month

 

Zooming into the NZ area, the 1015 isobar near NZ has widened and shifted north. The 1010 isobar is much the same over the tropics (in spite of several tropical cyclones) and has spread eastwards across the equatorial Pacific. The Antarctic HIGH has weakened.

 

The Tropics

The latest cyclone activity report is at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and Tropical Cyclone Potential is from www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html

TC LUCAS travelled across New Caledonia as a Cat 2 cyclone last Wednesday as seen on the New Caledonian METEO web site. image

Tropical moisture from the remains of LUCAS should arrive over NZ mid-week along with a Tasman trough.

TC FARAJI is in the South Indian Ocean

There is a moderate potential for a Tropical Cyclone to form near Fiji on Monday and move off to the south on Tuesday.

 

SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.

SPCZ is intense from Coral Sea to Vanuatu to Fiji. As part of a monsoonal trough.

A tropical low that is tonight north of Fiji is expected to drift southeast across the group on Monday, and then move off to the south on Tuesday, with a moderate to high potential to develop inti a cyclone.

Another cyclone may form over Vanuatu around Monday 15 Feb.

 

Subtropical ridge (STR)

HIGH 1022 east of South Island is moving off to the east.

New HIGH 1024 is expected to be south of Tasmanian on Tuesday and spread across North Island on Friday/Saturday.

 

NZ/Tasman troughs

Trough in the Tasman is expected to cross NZ on Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by a southerly flow on Thursday. .

For the start of the finals of the Prada Cup on Sat 13 Feb there should be OK easterly winds, but these are likely to be strong on Sunday 14th Feb.

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If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.

Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/

Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe at bottom).

Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.

Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 6427 7762212

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