Bob Blog 18 April

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 18 April

Firstly, as a memorial for Prince Phillip
www.youtube.com/watch?v=2dlXmuYuAYc
Hold your horses for now: As it says on www.noonsite.com/place/Australia ,
"while quarantine-free travel is to begin between Australia and NZ from 19
April, this is only permitted on commercial airlines. Border restrictions
remain in place for private flights and the maritime border". You can (try
and) seek an exemption - see-
www.customs.govt.nz/covid-19/maritime-border/private-yachts-and-small-craft/
guidance-for-small-craft-and-yacht-arrivals-in-new-zealand/#:~:text=Exemptio
ns%20for%20foreign%20vessels%20to%20enter%20New%20Zealand&text=Vessels%20may
%20be%20exempt%20if,or%20refitting%20the%20vessel%20AND

However, this is a constantly changing situation, so if we all cross our
fingers hard enough, maybe the bureaucracy will catch up with itself and
allow yachts into the trans-Tasman bubble.
If you are stuck in New Zealand and approaching your immigration
limitations, then join the facebook page
www.facebook.com/groups/41201881000740 for information.

The Tropics
The latest cyclone activity report is at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and Tropical
Cyclone Potential is from www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html
The MJO is still crossing the Pacific bringing a boost to tropical
convection. After killing over 34 people and bringing widespread flooding
to Timor Leste, SEROJA made landfall over Kalbarri , about 300 n miles north
of Pert, damaging 70% of its structures. It was joined by TC ODETTE,
producing a rare cyclone dance called a Fujiwhara (named after Sakuhei
Fujiwhara en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sakuhei_Fujiwhara ) see
www.severe-weather.eu/tropical-weather/fujiwhara-effect-cyclone-seroja-odett
e-australia-landfall-mk/.
And now TC SURIGAE/BISING has brewed and is east of Philippines after
becoming the strongest April typhoon on record.
There are some zones of potential development dotted over the Pacific this
week, but, with luck, this MJO has already peaked.

WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
The SPCZ is expected to be broad across the Coral sea and northern Vanuatu
to Samoa and thinning out to a tight convergence zone across Southern Cooks
and southern parts of French Polynesia.
Passing trough is expected to visit New Caledonia on Monday and south of
Tonga during mid-week.

Subtropical ridge (STR)
HIGH to NE of NZ is expected to travel east along 35 to 40S and build to
1032hPa south of Tahiti, building a squash zone of enhanced trade winds
along 25S from 135W to 160W.
HIGH in the Aussie Bight is expected to send a brief ridge into northern
Tasman Sea for the week.
Another HIGH may start ridging cross Bass strait this weekend.

Aussie/Tasman/NZ troughs
Low between Lord Howe and Norfolk Islands is expected to fade over North
Island on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Trough crossing Tasmania on Monday is expected to deepen into a Low in
mid-Tasman Sea by Wednesday and then weaken into a trough over NZ by Friday,
followed by a SW flow.

Panama to Galapagos/Marquesas
Light winds around Panama until midweek the a period of northerly winds,
good for departure. S to SE winds between 5N and Galapagos.
Taking the current into account, it looks better to get to Marquesas via
NORTH of Galapagos this week.
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If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 6427 7762212
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