Bob Blog 9 May

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 9 May

Regarding the LUCKGRIB app I mentioned last week---The only supported ways
to run the app are by downloading it to your Mac, iPhone or iPad via the
Apple App store. Anybody downloading the app via that link for Android
should first do a backup, as there is a great chance that the download may
corrupt your device.
Regarding the weather links I mentioned a few weeks back, the ones for the
Fiji and New Zealand weather maps are crook and linking to old data at
present. This is being worked on and hopefully can be fixed. I'll keep you
posted.

The Tropics
The 2020-2021 Season (from Wikipedia)

On December 8, a disturbance formed near Fiji, starting the 2020-21 South
Pacific Ocean cyclone season, it gradually intensified into a depression and
attained a tropical storm status according to JTWC. It reached at the
maximum 10 minutes sustained wind speed of 55 km/h (35 mph) and minimum
pressure of 1000 mb (29.53 inHg). Another disturbance formed near the
existing 01F and rapidly intensified into a depression. It hampered the
system intensification due to a brief interaction with Tropical Depression
01F. Following the same day, another disturbance formed and intensified into
a depression the next day. 01F became a remnant low and was absorbed by
Tropical Depression 02F. On December 13, 15:00 UTC, 02F intensified into a
Category 1 tropical cyclone, giving it the name Yasa. It quickly
strengthened into a Category 5 tropical cyclone before impacting Fiji. 03F
intensified into Category 1 tropical cyclone Zazu, strengthening to Category
2. Yasa became the most intense tropical cyclone of 2020, surpassing Goni
with a minimum barometric pressure of 899 mb (26.55 inHg) and a maximum wind
speed of 250 km/h (155 mph). It was also the fourth most intense South
Pacific tropical cyclone in terms of pressure after Winston, Zoe, and Pam.
Yasa caused heavy damage in and four deaths in Fiji. It then became
extratropical on December 20.
After all that, the basin remained quiet for a while until activity picked
up in late January. Four depressions formed within a few days of each other,
with two becoming named, Ana and Bina. Ana became a Category 3 tropical
cyclone struck Fiji like Yasa did and caused damage in the island nation.
Bina was a short-lived storm that affected Fiji and Vanuatu. Then, on
February 1, Lucas entered the basin form the Australian region. It peaked as
a Category 2 tropical cyclone and affected the Loyalty Islands. Afterward,
another depression formed.
Another pause of inactivity ensued again, with only a small disturbance
forming, in late February. However, in early March, Niran entered the basin
from the Australian region as a Category 5 severe tropical cyclone. It
passed close to New Caledonia before becoming extratropical north of New
Zealand. The basin became quiet once again until a disturbance formed on
April 9, strengthening into a depression later.

The latest cyclone activity report shows There are some weak zones of
potential development east of Philippines and west of Mexico.

WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
The SPCZ is expected to be weak and mainly from northern Vanuatu to Samoa
and then southeast towards between Raro and Tahiti.
A low is expected to form on the SPCZ southeast of Raro around mid-week and
deepen as it moves off to the south.

Subtropical ridge (STR)
HIGH 1030+ east of NZ is travelling east along 35S.
HIGH 1030+ over Tasmania on Tuesday is expected to travel east along 45S and
across South Island on Thursday and then fade.

Aussie/Tasman/NZ troughs
Trough over Tasmania tonight reaching South Island by Tuesday and North
Island on Wednesday followed by a one-day southerly, possibly forming a Low
east of North Island on Thursday.
Low is expected to form off NSW coast on Friday and go SE onto Southland by
Saturday with a trough over rest of Tasman/NZ. This trough may offer a
chance for sailing from Queensland to New Caledonia with a mid-week
departure.

Panama to Galapagos/Marquesas
Light winds for Panama. SW/S winds from 5North to Galapagos. Currents help
make the trip to Marquesas via north of Galapagos better this week.
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If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212
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