Bob Blog 28 Nov

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 28 November 2021
REVIEW OF THE LAST MONTH (November 2021)

Sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific are showing the cool eddies of a LA NINA episode. This is surrounded by a C-shaped zone of warmth from north of Hawaii to Indonesia to south of Fiji. And there is now a warm zone from Madagascar to southwest of Australia.


To see how the annual weather cycle and the seasons are working out, we can check the average isobar maps for past 30 days and their anomaly from psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/glbcir.quick.shtml

Northern Europe is showing typical winter change with intensification of a High over China.
The southern hemisphere subtropical ridge is shifting south for the summer, most notably in the Australian bight.
The anomaly map shows there are now fewer lows forming around Australia than last month.
The main change in the past month has been the extension of the subtropical ridge southwards into the Australian Bight Also, the 1010 isobar has shifted south and east from Indonesia to northern Australia and Samoa.

TROPICS
We are continuing with the typical November hiatus with no cyclones around at present.
Winter storm ARWEN has been bringing damage to UK with a northerly gale.

WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
The SPCZ is stretching from PNG across Solomon Islands and northern Vanuatu to Samoa and Tuamotu Islands.
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HIGHS and LOWS
LOW L1 south of Tahiti is travelling SE and deepening, stealing the wind from the tropics and moving a convergence zone onto Tahiti by mid-week.
HIGH H1 east of NZ is moving east along 35to 40S west of L1.
LOW L2 in Tasman Sea is expected to travel across central NZ on Tuesday and then fade and get pushed off to the north.
LOW L3 is expected to develop around Tuvalu by mid-week and then travel southeast and deepen south of Southern Cooks by end of the week.
HIGH H2 is expected to move from Tasmania around southern NZ by mid-week and then go northeast, making a squash zone with L3
After L2 it looks Ok to sail westwards to Australia or southwards from Fiji to Opua until next trough arrives around Fri 10 Dec.
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