Bob Blog 5 dec

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 5 December 2021

REVIEW OF THE LAST MONTH (November 2021)

As an addendum for my review of November: MetService and NIWA confirm that
November 2021 was the warmest November on record in New Zealand, and BoM in
Australia confirm it was the wettest November on record in Australia.

ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
These have been streaming cloud across the north pacific recently from the
tropics to Western US and Canada, bringing record-breaking rainfall.
The NOAA weather map on 4 Dec shows a 1044hPa HIGH and a Low bringing a cold
front to Hawaii
which triggered a blizzard warning for Mauna Kea.
See
www.sfgate.com/hawaii/article/blizzard-warning-flooding-kona-low-Hawaii-1667
2184.php
A Kona Low is a subtropical cyclone that can feed south to southwest winds
onto Hawaiian Islands.

TROPICS
TC NYATOH formed east of Philippines last Monday and travelled north and
faded by last Friday.
TC TERATAI briefly formed last Wednesday to southwest of Jakarta. It was the
second named storm for the Australian area this season, with PADDY being the
first, in the South Indian Ocean from 22-24 November.
There are zones of potential development east of Philippines and over
Solomons as a burst of extra convection is expected to arrive in the western
pacific over the next week or so because of an incoming MJO. The GFS and EC
models are now picking that a tropical Low is likely to form between Solomon
Islands and northern Vanuatu late this week and this might then deepen and
go southeast next week. More on this next Sunday, but those who have been
delaying their tropical exit this season should heed the signs and get
going.

WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
The SPCZ is becoming more intense this week and expected to drift south onto
Fiji to Southern Cooks.

HIGHS and LOWS
LOW L1 south of Tahiti is expected to linger around 30S and fade late in the
week.
TROF from central Tasman Sea to central NZ on Monday is expected to go off
to the east-southeast.
HIGH H1 east of Tasmania is NZ is expected to swing past southern NZ on
Tuesday and rebuild along 40S across the Pacific.
LOW L2 is expected move off inland Australia and deepen east of Sydney by
Thursday then travel across South Island by Saturday, leaving a centre west
of Westland.
HIGH H2 is get into south Tasman Sea this weekend and then follows H1.
L3 is expected to form between Solomon Islands and northern Vanuatu later
this week and deepen and go southeast next week.
Looks OK to sail to Opua and arrive before Tuesday 14 Dec, but there may be
strong winds and heavy swells over northern NZ 15-16 Dec.
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If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
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at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212
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