Bob Blog 6 Feb. 2022

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 06 February 2022

REVIEW OF THE LAST MONTH (January2022)
Sea surface temperature continues cool around the eastern equatorial
Pacific, showing us the LA NINA. This is surrounding by a warm C shaped
zone across the central North Pacific to PNG to Tasman Sea to central South
pacific. Marine heat waves are triggering a squid bloom off the Origan Coast


To see how the annual weather cycle and the seasons are working out, we can
check the average isobar maps for past 30 days and their anomaly

Average isobars for past month (below)
In the north there is a weak subtropical ridge and a strong Siberian winter
High
The southern subtropical ridge is well south of its normal latitude.
The anomaly map shows deeper than normal lows over the Aleutian Islands.


TROPICS
BATSIRAI crossed Madagascar yesterday brining widespread damage. CLIFF is
in the mid-south Indian Ocean going SW. There is a zone of high potential
for formation across the Coral Sea to Fiji.

WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
The SPCZ is more active than last week especially from Vanuatu/New Caledonia
to Fiji. A tropical Low L2 is expected to move from Coral Sea to New
Caledonia area by mid-week and then go south.
HIGHS and LOWS
High1 to east of NZ is expected to travel east along 35S maintaining a good
SE flow over Tahiti that curls to a NE flow over Samoa and Tonga.
Low1 in north Tasma Sea with a rain band over the North Island early in the
week is moving off to southwest/south.
High H2 starts the week south of Tasmania then travels east around South
Island then northeast.
Low2 in Coral Sea may deepen inti a tropical cyclone over southern
Vanuatu/New Caledonia area by mid-week and then go south towards Northland.
These Lows make trans-Tasman voyages risky this week.
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If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
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Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212