Bob Blog 13 March

Bob Blog 13 March
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 13 March 2022

An interesting blog I came across this week is a brief summary of how to
read a marine forecast at
www.metocean.co.nz/news/2022/3/8/understanding-marine-forecasts.
Sadly these forecasts don't include the barometer, and I think that is the
number one weather indicator for mariners.

TROPICS
The latest cyclone activity report is at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and Tropical
Cyclone Potential is from www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html
TC Gombe is fading after harassing Madagascar. Apart form a possible
potential area south of Sumatra, the coming weeks are expected to be quiet
in the South Pacific, as the next MJO burst develops in the Indian Ocean. It
seems that the main impact of the recent MJO has been the east Australia
flooding.

WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
The SPCZ stretches from PNG to Vanuatu/New Caledonia to Fiji/Tonga to
Southern Cooks.
Rain Accumulation next five days from windy.com

HIGHS and LOWS
Low1 to E of New Zealand started south of Niue last week and should bring a
nasty southerly to Gisborne this week with some heavy rain then peel off to
the east after Thursday.\
Low L2 s expected to travel east to south of Tahiti.
Low L3 is expected to form NE of Lord Howe Island on Monday and then go
northeast towards Tonga and follow L2 next week.
High H1 well to southeast of NZ is expected to travel NE.
High H2 is expected to travel from Aussie Bight to south of NZ as Low L4
follows behind it into central Tasman.
As we approach the equinox the sun is directly over 5 degrees South this
week and this induces a southward shift of the ITCZ over the eastern
Pacific. It seems to happen every year and this ECZ or equinoctial
convergence zone may now last for several weeks.
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If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212
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