Bob Blog 12 June

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 12 June 2022

Other versions of the Beaufort scale
THE SHAKERS AND THE BREAKERS scale
Here is a simple matrix for determining wind speed in km/hr by watching a
tree
Item move shake break
Leaves 10 40 70
Twigs 20 50 80
Branches 30 60 90
Tree topples at over 100kph

For example if the twigs are shaking , wind is 50kph. 50kph is the speed
of a strong wind, and when this is happens we should observe its effect
around us and use this as training for future comparisons.

And on a more whimsical side here is a modern version of the Beaufort scale
for cruising sailors from
https://weather.mailasail.com/Franks-Weather/Historical-And-Contemporay-Vers
ions-Of-Beaufort-Scales
Helmsman's version Crew's version
0-1 Drifting conditions Boredom
2 Set large sail to catch wind. Mild pleasure.
3 Large headsail and full mainsail Pleasure
4 Reduce headsail and mainsail Great pleasure
5 Reduce headsail and reef mainsail Delight
6 Ditto Delight tinged with anxiety
7 Reefed mainsail and small jib Anxiety tinged with fear
8 Deep reefed mainsail Fear tinged with terror
9 Set storm jib and trysail Great terror
10 Survival conditions Panic

TROPICS
The latest cyclone activity report is at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and Tropical
Cyclone Potential is from www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html
Early last week Cyclone ALEX brought an early start to the 2022 Atlantic
Cyclone season.
AT present there is a strong potential that a low which may soon form south
of Acapulco and develop into a cyclone that ] drifts west for a few days.

WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific ConvL1ergence zone and STR (Sub tropical ridge).
The SPCZ stretches from PNG/Coral Sea to north of Vanuatu and to Tuvalu.
Another convergence zone stretches from Coral Sea to New Caledonia to the
SE. A low L2is expected to form on this near New Caledonia by Thursday and
then deepen as it goes SE this weekend. The STR should spend the week along
30S allowing a High H1 to slowly travel east. A good time for traveling west
from Tahiti.

The best route this week from Tahiti westwards this week seems to be the
northern route.

HIGHS and LOWS
An upper trough has been forming over the Tasman Sea last week and has bred
L1. L1 is expected this week to deepen as it travel across NZ and further
east. It is bringing wintery conditions to NZ and drawing in air from off
the ice shelf of the Southern Ocean. In a few weeks it may weaken the LA
NINA and that may usher change to weather patterns across the entire
Pacific.

For those wanting to cross the Tasman, wait a few days for the swells around
L1 to ease.
For those wanting to sail from NZ to the tropics L2 may be a challenge this
weekend, so check that out.

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If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
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Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212