Bob Blog 21 Aug

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 21 August 2022

Another reason to hate a HIGH
Back in the 1990s when I wrote my MetPack notes, still available at
about.metservice.com/our-company/learning-centre/mariners-met-pack/

I included a section listing nine reasons to Hate a High.
Last week over New Zealand has been a perfect example of reason number nine
"The bigger they are the slower they move, blocking fronts that are trying
to follow them."
I mentioned that L2 and L3 2ould bother Aotearoa NZ (AoNZ) from Tuesday to
Friday last week, and indeed they did. This is because a large High grew to
well over 1040hPa east of AoNZ and south of FP.
Notice how there was a convergence zone of tropical moisture feeding the
frontal rain stalled over AoNZ , this was referred to in the popular media
as a "hosepipe" to help convey the picture.
As a result the rain accumulation was record breaking and very damaging


TROPICS
There are zones for potential developments west of Mexico and across the
central Atlantic.

WEATHER ZONES
The SPCZ stretches from PNG across Solomons to Samoa. Early in the week a
convergence zone from around Niue to Southern Cooks is associated with L1, a
low further south that is expected to go to the southwest and fade. OK to
travel from Tahiti to Tonga this week.

HIGHS and LOWS
Last week's High over 1040 has now moved off to the east.
The next High H1 is around 1024 and more mobile. It starts the week in the
Tasman sea and travels east along 30S crossing northern NZ around Wednesday
and getting south of FP by week=end.
L2 in the Tasman Sea is expected to cross North Island on Monday night and
then go off to the southeast.
L3 is expected to form off Coffs on Wednesday and then travel southeast
crossing NZ on Friday, followed by a southerly flow.
H1 offers a brief opportunity of OK weather...it doesn't satisfy any of
those nine ways that make nasty Highs..

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