Bob Blog 12 March

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.

Compiled Sunday 12 Mar 2023

IS THIS THE START OF EL NINO?
Recently there has been a twinning of Lows north and south of Galapagos:
AS seen on windy.com with L1 near 5N and L2 near 10S. L2 is the remains of
Cyclone YAKU that formed a few days ago on that convergence zone that was
south of Galapagos as mentioned in my blog over the past few weeks.
Consequently, we have a belt of near equatorial winds just south of
Galapagos as shown by the purple arrow, and the trade winds have weakened,
and in places reversed for those planning to voyage from Panama to
Marquesas, normally done at this time of the year.
There is now a strong movement of sun-warmed surface water eastwards, over
3knots in places around Galapagos.

And this is now starting to pile warmer than normal water along the Peru
Coast. One of the yachts that passed thru this area yesterday described the
scene thus: "as far as the sea life is concerned, a couple of dolphin came
by a day or so ago, few birds resting on the deck at night, and that's about
as much as we have seen, had 3 fishing rods out with various types of lures
and not had a touch in 4 days I think they know not to come near this part
of the ocean."
SO much warm water has shifted that the Intertropical convergence zone ITCZ
has gone inland and there is now a lot of convective activity along the Peru
coast. Parts of Peru have had flooding and mudslides in the past week, see
floodlist.com/america/peru-floods-lambayeque-peru-march-2023 - they have had
rain amounts they haven't seen since Jan 2017 the start of an EL NINO
COSTERO event (see
www.globe.gov/web/claudiacarovera/home/blog/-/blogs/el-nino-costero-in-peru-
a-story-to-tell)
A snapshot of the clouds over the Pacific also shows how the tropical
moisture that normally forms the ITCZ has been diverted by strong winds
aloft from east of Hawaii to California. an atmospheric river.

TROPICS

The latest cyclone activity report is at zoom.earth and tropic.ssec.wisc.edu
and Tropical Cyclone Potential is from
www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html

Cyclone FREDDY continues to continue and to break records. It has a central
pressure around 980 and has made landfall for a second time over Mozambique
today. It was named on 5 Feb and is now the longest lasting tropical storm
with the greatest ACE accumulated cyclone energy.
A good summary of FREDDY (so far ) has been made by South African
meteorologist Annette Botha at www.youtube.com/watch?v=v_KpFj2OXsQ
Cyclone YAKU briefly formed off Peru.
There is still a likelihood of low pressure development around Vanuatu this
week.
The next MJO is expected to start forming in the Indian Ocean during the
next few weeks and, with a lot of hand-waving, if this season's rhythm
continues that means it may reach northern Australia around start or April.
So, there is still time for another cyclone to form in the Pacific before
the send of the season

WEATHER ZONES
South Pacific Convergence Zone SPCZ
The SPCZ is expected to remain active from Solomons to Fiji and in a weaker
zone across Southern Cooks and Austral Islands . Several small lows are
forming on these zones. A small low 10F near Southern Cooks and another 11F
between Fiji and Tonga may have strong winds next few days. but then fade. A
more intense low L2 now near Vanuatu is expected to travel slowly south
towards New Caledonia and might deepen. A smaller convergence zone is
expected to form over the Tuamotu Islands.

HIGHS and LOWS
A trough is crossing NZ on Monday followed by large High H! crossing the
Tasman sea reaching NZ on Tue/Wed, then moving off to the east along 35 to
40S.
Low L1 tonight over Lord Howe island is expected to cross Aotearoa NZ on
Thurs/Friday followed by a strong westerly flow.
Those planning to cross the Tasman Sea this week should avoid L1.

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