Bob Blog 10 Sep 23

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 10 Sep 2023

The MJO
The MJO or Madden Julian Oscillation is the name for a bust of convection in
the tropics that travels eastwards around the equator from Indian Ocean to
Pacific Ocean. Its passage over any one place takes around a week and the
full journey from Indian to Pacific takes around 4 to 6 weeks. It's boost of
extra energy is associated with triggering tropical cyclones. Therefore, it
provides a forecasting tool.
The data shows an MJO over the Coral Sea during the coming week.

But the data description is rather complicated and can be off-putting to
non-meteorologists:
One of my regular readers added this to his blog at
https://twoatsea.com/mjo-who/
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I was trying learn more about the MJO as it's coming to visit us in
Indonesia this week. I went to NOAA's website about the MJO and immediately
stumbled into this very confusing paragraph.
Forecast of MJO associated anomalous OLR for the next 15 days from the
ensemble mean GFS based on forecasts of RMM1 and RMM2. Blue (yellow/red)
shades show negative (positive) OLR anomalies and enhanced (suppressed)
convection. Forecasts do not include direct contributions from other climate
modes such as ENSO, monsoons, etc. - only the MJO.
I'm positive (negative) that I don't (do) understand, so I asked ChatGPT the
following:
I don't understand this paragraph. Can you explain it to me like I'm 5?
And Chat came to my rescue:
Of course! Let's break it down:
Imagine the Earth has a big weather "dance" going on. This dance has
different moves or patterns that change the weather. One of these dance
moves is called the MJO.
Now, scientists have a special tool (like a magic crystal ball) called the
GFS. This tool tries to guess what the MJO dance move will look like in the
next 15 days. But it's not just one guess; they make many guesses and then
take an average, which they call the "ensemble mean."
To understand the dance move better, they look at two things: RMM1 and RMM2.
Think of these as two special clues that help them guess the MJO dance move.
Now, for the colors:
Blue means there will be more clouds and rain (they call this "enhanced
convection").
Yellow or red means there will be fewer clouds and less rain (they call this
"suppressed convection").
Lastly, even though there are many other dance moves (like ENSO or monsoons)
that can change the weather, this guess is only about the MJO dance move.
They're not looking at the other moves right now.
So, in simple words, scientists are using a tool to guess how a specific
weather pattern (MJO) will change the clouds and rain in the next 15 days.
Blue means more rain, and yellow/red means less rain. And they're only
focusing on this one pattern, not the others.
-Rich
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Inspired by the idea of using Chat GPT to rewrite the MJO description I
asked it to turn its answer into a sonnet:

MJO, a rhythmic dance in the sky,
Like music playing, way up high.
It's like a big wave, moving through the air,
Bringing changes, everywhere it dares.

Imagine clouds, like fluffy cotton candy,
They gather and move, just like a trolley.
MJO makes them dance and sway,
Sometimes it brings rain, other times a sunny day.

It travels along the equator and the tropics,
From the Indian Ocean to the Western Pacific.
It's a weather pattern, you see,
That affects the world, including you and me.

So, MJO is like a weather show,
With clouds and winds, it likes to go.
But don't you worry, it's part of nature's plan,
Just watch and learn, like a weather fan.

Enjoy the poetry (perhaps). As for the MJO: this week it may encourage
activity between the Coral Sea and Vanuatu.

TROPICS
HAIKU tracked back onto Taiwan. SAOLA skirted Hong Kong. These systems were
followed by clouds that brought the heaviest rain in over 140 years to Hong
Kong. JOVA is fading between Hawaii and Mexico; LEE and MARGOT are in the
Atlantic.

WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is expected to stretch from Solomons to
Samoa. A build-up of convection in the Coral Sea is expected to become
squally around Vanuatu on Thursday and then travel SE and deepen into a low
1 south of Fiji/Tonga in next few days. Timing may change. Avoid.
Passing troughs over and to the southeast of Southern Cooks.
HIGHS and LOWS: a steady eastwards progression this week
HIGH H1 east of Chatham Islands is travelling slowly ENE from 40S to 35S.
The trough in the south Tasman Sea is expected to cross NZ on Tuesday and
another on Thursday /Friday.
Then High H2 is expected to cross central Tasman Sea on Thu/Fri and northern
NZ over the weekend.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If you would like more details about your voyage, then check metbob.com to
see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>