Bobgram 18 Feb

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are
from the patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 18 February 2024

El Nino is expected to weaken this autumn

We are having an El Nino weather pattern. It is the name given to the
period when sea surface temperatures over the eastern equatorial
Pacific are above normal. This pattern is expected to weaken during
our autumn as shown by The Bureau of Meteorology, Australia. with the
trends in Sea temperature made by several computer models.


The next image in my illustrated edition at metbob.com shows the daily
averaged isobars over the NZ area for the main part of summer
(longitudes 160E to 180 and latitudes 20S to 50S from Dec 1st to Feb
15th). The passing HIGHS are regular around once a week but for late
January and early February South of the Highs there are regular
passing fronts and lows crossing the Southern Ocean bringing rain to
the southwest of NZ and hot dry northwest winds to places east of the
main ranges.


As we move out of El Nino during autumn there is likely to be a period
where the weather will swing from one pattern to another, allowing
variety as each pattern gets to "play" for a short time. I call this
"weather Jazz" and at metbob.com is what I got when I asked AI to draw
that.


TROPICS

An unnamed, short-lived and minimal tropical storm drenched central
parts of the Vanuatu archipelago before dissipating near Fiji. Another
tropical depression recently drenched the Sothern Coos and is now
moving off to the southeast. LINCOLN moved from Gulf of Carpinteria to
inland Australia, And GYOUNGOU is in the mid Indian Ocean.

WEATHER ZONES

The South Pacific Convergence zone remains strong, active, squally and
has a few tropical depressions, but there is too much wind shear aloft
to allow cyclones to form.

L1 near Samoa is expected to start moving to the southeast across Niue
area and the Southern Cooks after Wednesday.

L2 has been hovering to west of Fiji for a few days and will do so
until around Wednesday then weaken.

HIGHS and LOWS

HIGH H1 east of NZ should weaken as it travels further east.

Front attached to L3 is expected to quickly cross NZ on Monday.

H2 is expected to cross the Tasmanian area tonight/ then the central
Tasman Sea on Monday/Tuesday
and then central NZ on Wednesday and Thursday with a ridge remaining
in the far north as the High travels off further east.

After H2 a frontal trough is expected to reach the South Island by
Saturday and cross the North Island on Sunday25 Feb.

Panama to Marquesas: the Northerly winds in the gulf should last all
week. Scattered squalls to 2S.

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If you would like more details about your voyage, then check
metbob.com to see what I offer.
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Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com
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Weathergram archive (with translator) is at
weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
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