Bobgram

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled 08 Feb 2026
State of the La Nina (adapted from bom.gov.au)

• This weak La Nina episode continues to relax.
One way of measuring it is by looking at the sea surface temperatures in the
central tropical Pacific.


After being in La Nina territory since last October this is now in neutral
territory
The trend is for a further relaxing of La Nina in the next few weeks.
This means that Tradewinds are becoming more reliable , and the subtropical
ridge is also becoming well established mainly between 30S and 40S.
• Another parameter to watch is the 30-day Southern Oscillation Index
(SOI) based of the baro readings at Tahiti and Derwin.

This is now is +10.3, which is above the La Niña threshold of +7. It may be
affected by a recent series of seasonal tropical lows , and this may be
masking things.
• All models indicate a continued warming in the tropical Pacific with
a neutral ENSO state favoured through to at least late autumn


TROPICS
Cyclone Fytia left at least three people dead in flooding and high winds as
the Category-2 storm passed over Madagascar.
GEZANI is expected to make landfall over Madagascar next few days.
• Minimal Tropical Storm Penha raked parts of the southern Philippines.
• An unnamed tropical low passed between Fiji and Vanuatu.


•WEATHER ZONES
Rain accumulation this week from Windy.com shows a South Pacific convergence
Zone that is active over the northern Coral Sea, Vanuatu and then south of
Fiji, then less active east of the date line.
Wind accumulation from windy.com shows the path of wind accompanying
Cyclone MITCHELL over Western Australia.

Highs and LOWS
There is a series of tropical lows with L1 and L2 shown on the Wednesday
map. L2 is expected to develop and travel southeast maybe reaching the
north Island on Friday 13.
A large frontal trough now in the Australian Bight is expected to reach
Tasmania by Wednesday and then cross NZ on Friday 13th and combine with L2.
A short-lived trough and front is expected to travel across the Lord Howe
area on Tuesday and Wednesday and then fade--- as shown as L3 on the map.
The remains of cyclone MITCHELL may linger a few days this week over western
Australia.
Highs H1 and H2 flank the east and west wings of this week's weather map.
High H1 gave New Zealand a mainly settled long weekend (Friday was our
Waitangi Day).
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Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
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