Bob Blog 20 oct

WEATHERGRAM

YOTREPS

 

Compiled Sun 20 October 2019

Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.

 

THE TROPICS

The latest cyclone activity report is at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and TCFP tropical Cyclone Formation Potential at www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html

At present there are two named storms in the Northwest Pacific Ocean NEOGURI and BUALOI

 

WEATHER ZONES

SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.

The SPCZ is expected to stretch from PNG to north of Vanuatu and north of Fiji, maybe touching Samoa.

Passing trough over Niue area on local Tuesday, Cooks on Wednesday and French Polynesia later in the week.

 

Subtropical ridge (STR)

HIGH is expected to travel east along 30S from Tasman Sea to East of NZ from Wednesday to Sunday this week.

 

Tasman Sea /NZ/Aus

Low is expected to form over central NZ on Tuesday night and travel on Wednesday to east of NZ followed by a SW flow on Thursday and then a ridge on Friday. Next trof for northern NZ (no good for arrival in NZ) is due on 4 November.

As for tropics to NZ this week: Time your voyage to run south when High travels east (wed to sat), before that the trip has southerly winds which are Ok for getting west, but not south.

For Noumea to Aus looks Ok, but avoid arriving on coast from around Brisbane southwards on Saturday afternoon 26 oct due passing trough. This trough should weaken as it moves across Tasman, reaching New Caledonia by following Tuesday.

 

Tahiti to Tonga

Mainly trade winds this week but for a passing trough at some stage during the week, followed by SW/SSE winds .

 

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If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see what I offer.

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Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.

Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 6427 7762212

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