WEATHERGRAM
YOTREPS
Compiled Sun 27 October 2019
Bob McDavitt’s ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the patterned world.
THE TROPICS
The latest cyclone activity report is at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and TCFP tropical Cyclone Formation Potential at www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html
At present there are two named storms PABLO and KYARR
WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ
The SPCZ is expected to stretch from PNG to north of Vanuatu with another zone stretching from Samoa area to Sothern Cooks.
Weak Passing trough over Fiji/Tonga on local Wednesday and Niue/ Southern Cooks area on local Wednesday (one day later) area on local Tuesday, Cooks on Wednesday and French Polynesia on local Thursday.
Subtropical ridge (STR)
HIGH is expected to travel east along 30S from Tasman Sea to East of NZ from Wednesday to Sunday this week.
Tasman Sea /NZ/Aus
Weak trough is expected to cross NZ on Monday followed by SW flow on Tuesday and Wednesday and then a large HIGH is expected to travel from Tasman Sea across NZ from Thu 31 Oct to Tue 5 Nov = good days for arrival in NZ.
After that the next trough is now due on 6/7 Nov - probably worth avoiding.
Then a NW flow, OK for arrival, for 8/9 Nov.
For Noumea to Aus looks Ok, with HIGH in Tasma Sea. No passing troughs to avoid.
Tahiti to Tonga
The passing trough is likely to reach Southern Cooks area by local Wednesday and then develop a Low just south of the Cooks on Thursday and this lo should the deepen and go south or SSE. Avoid.
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Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 6427 7762212
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