Bob blog 2 Jan 2022

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 2 January 2022

An interesting article on how the marine heatwave is affecting the fishing
(and swimming) around New Zealand is available from NIWA:
niwa.co.nz/news/will-it-be-a-fintastic-fishing-year with a video clip
showing how this marine heat wave is related to the current cool equatorial
waters of LA NINA

TROPICS
The latest cyclone activity report is at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and Tropical
Cyclone Potential is from www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html

SETH formed in the Coral Sea a few days ago and is now weakening.

There is a high chance of another tropical feature deepening between Vanuatu
and Fiji late this week, and then coming south towards NZ next week, but
this development and track is still uncertain. Maybe stay put between
Vanuatu, Fiji, and NZ this week and next week.

WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
The SPCZ remains active from Solomons to Tuvalu to Fiji/Samoa.
SETH is expected to weaken and drift slowly South
A new tropical low is expected to form between Vanuatu and Fiji by end of
the week.
A convergence zone is expected to linger around the Tuamotu Islands


HIGHS and LOWS
HIGH H1 starts the week east of South Island and travel off to the
northeast.
Low L1 to east of North Island is expected to do a clockwise loop to the
west by mid-week and then peel off to the SE.
A weak replacement trough is expected to travel across NZ on Tuesday and
then High H2 should travel northeast across the Tasman Sea onto central NZ
by the weekend.
LOW L2 is expected to travel from interior of Australia across Tasmania on
Thursday and to southern NZ by Sat.

OK to arrive in Opua this week, and maybe stay put between Vanuatu, Fiji
this week, extended to NZ next week.

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If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
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