Bob Blog

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.

Compiled Sunday 16 January 2022

TONGAN VOCANO
The undersea volcano called "Hunga-Tonga-Hunga-Ha'apai", between Tongatapu
and Ha'apai, started erupting a few days before Christmas, and has been
spewing ash ever since and building a crater that was above sea level.

Last Friday (local) an eruption triggered a Tsunami watch. Then just before
dusk on Saturday (local) the volcano exploded.maybe the seafloor collapsed
into the caldera under it, releasing awesome amounts of energy.

Nukualofa, Tonga's capital, was inundated by Tsunami, then blanketed in
thick ash, and communications are still down. The sonic boom was heard here
in NZ, over 2000km away. And the pressure-shock waves circled the planet,
with a 2.5hPa fluctuation in barographs measured in Europe (as with Krakatoa
in 1883).

A summary of the news media imagery from iTV may be seen at
www.youtube.com/watch?v=d65BQ-Q7ftc

A combo of large waves from remains of TC CODY and the surge for the Tongan
Tsunami bashed boats in Tutukaka marina, near Whangarei, damaging many and
sinking a yacht.

The Tsunami surges can be seen on the NZGNS tide gauges:
The graph at North Cape shows the large "gravity" waves from the remains of
TC CODY.

Still too early to estimate how much ash got into the stratosphere. But if
it is significant then this may bring a period of cooling to the planet.

TROPICS
Last week CODY formed and brought heavy rain to Fiji, then travelled south
and southeast. It is now subtropical L1 and is expected to reach Chatham
Islands late Tuesday.

WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific Convergence zone.
The SPCZ remains active from Solomons to Vanuatu/Samoa to Southern Cooks.
Tropical low L2 over Southern Cooks is expected to deepen and be slow-moving
until mid-week then go off to south and southeast. Check
www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/20036.txt

HIGHS and LOWS
HIGH H1 south of Chathams is expected to travel east along 45S.
HIGH H2 west of North Island should linger there until mid-week then fade.
TROF now over Tasmania should go northeast and bring a southerly change to
South Island on Wednesday and North Island on Thursday.
HIGH H3 is expected to follow trof into Tasman Sea by Friday and onto North
Island at end of week.

After the swells ease by late Tuesday, it is looking OK to travel into Opua
anytime this or next week.
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