Bob Blog 10 Apr

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 10 April 2022

For latest forecast of CLIMATE ACTION NOW getting north of the Antarctic
Convergence zone see youtu.be/_iIzDvWkPUM
Fifty-four years ago today the remains of a cyclone from New Caledonia,
GISELLE, crossed the North Island taking 4 lives on land and 51 lives in the
sinking of the WAHINE inter-island ferry at the entrance to Wellington
harbour.
For an animated gif file on Giselle in April 1968 see
youtube.com/shorts/w8pGrOFCJn8

During the coming week the remains of a cyclone from New Caledonia, FILI is
expected to graze past the North Island on Tuesday to Thursday. For
windy.com showing of the EC model of FILI over NZ mid-week see
youtu.be/tKuX0FctpPI
Comparing the two cyclones, they start in much the same place and intensity
and at the same time of the year, and the western HIGHS and cold front from
the south look similar. However, the eastern HIGHS are different and this
week the High in the east is expected to relax and allow the remains of FILI
to go southeast: a different path and nowhere near as intense as Giselle..

TROPICS
FILI formed in the Coral Sea, passed New Caledonia with no newsworthy
damage, and is heading southeast and should bring unwelcome wind and rain
to North Island on Tuesday to Thursday. MALAKAS formed east of Palau and is
peeling off to the northwest, as first cyclone for 2022 in this area. MEGI
has formed near the Philippines.

WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific ConvL1ergence zone.
The SPCZ stretches from PNG to Vanuatu/New Caledonia to Fiji/Tonga.
A convergence zone over Southern cooks and Austral Islands is expected to
form L3 which then travels southeast parallel to Fili. OK this week for
sailing west across the tropics.

HIGHS and LOWS
Fili is expected to travel southeast past the east of North Island mid-week
brining heavy rain and gales.
A cold front is spreading northeast across the Tasman Sea. Once its cold air
encounters Fili, L3 is expected to form and then rotate clockwise around the
path of Fili onto Northland for Easter weekend. Avoid NZ this week.
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If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212
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