Bob Blog 3 April

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 03 April 2022

For latest forecast of CLIMATE ACTION NOW about to pass Cape Horn this week
see youtu.be/2mvG9yC1jYo

For a very useful tutorial on how to use windy.com for voyage planning see
www.youtube.com/watch?v=qlKTRst3vSs this is from noonsite.com's latest
monthly newsletter, a definite first go-to place for anyone planning to sail
across the ocean.

REVIEW OF THE LAST MONTH (March 2022)
Sea surface temperature anomolies: the cool eddies along the eastern
equatorial Pacific that signify LA Nina are continuing to relax but are
still there. There is also a C shaped ring of warm water around this across
north Pacific Indonesia and South Pacific, and warm zones across the south
Tasman Sea and off South Africa more intense than last month. And the Gulf
stream is lit up like the stars and stripes.

The subtropical ridge in the northern Hemisphere has weakened since last
month.

The anomaly map shows a larger and stronger Tasman Sea double -barrelled low
(matching the floods in eastern Oz and eastern NZ) and the Low in the North
Pacific has shrunk. Not sure what has happened in Africa, now part of a low
breeding ground that stretches to Australia.

These maps show that the 1015 isobar has shifted north a little over
Australia, and there are more 1020 isobars in the subtropical ridge. The
Antarctic High has increased to over 1030 in the region that managed to get
an atmospheric river of warmth that produced a heat wave in Antarctica near
the equinox. This same atmospheric river brought a series of floods to
eastern oz and eastern NZ.

TROPICS
HALIMA has faded in the mid-south Indian Ocean. There are no cyclones around
at present but there is an increasing potential for development east of the
Philippines and around the Coral Sea. This is a sign that we are now in for
a few weeks of extra energy in the western Pacific, as a Madden Julian
Oscillation MJO moves onto the area. However recent observations are showing
this MJO is rather weak.

WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ=South Pacific ConvL1ergence zone.
The SPCZ stretches from PNG to Vanuatu/New Caledonia to Fiji/Tonga to
Southern Cooks.
L1 to the northwest of New Caledonia is expected to travel Southeast across
New Caledonia by mid-week and continue to get south of Fiji/Tonga by end of
the week, bringing a lull to the trades over Fiji/Tonga. Avoid.

Low L2 off Sydney is expected to weaken as it travels east-southeast and
crosses central NZ mid-week.

High H1, which was a good blocking high last week to east of the North
Island, is moving off the east this week along 35S allowing L1 and L2 to
follow.

High H2 south of Tasmania is expected to only travel slowly northeast across
southern Tasman Sea reaching central Tasman Sea by end of the week. This is
NOT a good week for voyaging from Queensland eastwards.

There is a mirror convergence zone at 2S to west of Galapagos. This is
normal around and soon after the equinox and may linger for a few weeks.

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If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212
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