Bob blog 18 Sep

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 18 September 2022
Origin of the terms El Nino and La Nina
The locals in Peru are keen observers of ups and downs in their food stocks
over the years. They like to gather anchovies that can be easily collected
just offshore thanks to the strong upwellings of nutritious water in the
Humboldt current. Around Christmas in most years a current brings in warmer
seas from the north and a bounty of extra food, and Peruvian fish gatherers
called this event" El Nino" naming it after the birth of the Christ child.
The first published reference of this was in 1891 by Senor Dr Luis Carranza,
then President of the Lima Geographical Society, see
faculty.washington.edu/kessler/occasionally-asked-questions.html#q2
So, what about the origin of the term "La Nina"? Well, the locals in Peru
didn't have a term for a non-bounty period and when the term "El Nino" was
adopted for a warm event over the eastern equatorial Pacific, various terms
were used to describe its opposite. One was "Anti El Nino", but that can be
translated as antichrist and was only used once or twice.
So it was that S. George Philander of Princeton introduced the term "La
Nina" (Girl) for the "cold event". But some wanted to use "El Viejo" (old
man).

TROPICS
The latest cyclone activity report is at tropic.ssec.wisc.edu and Tropical
Cyclone Potential is from www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html

FIONA is in the Caribbean and MADELINE is off west of Mexico
TC NANMADOL is tonight making landfall across Japan.
Two million people have been asked to shelter from this rare and very
dangerous

WEATHER ZONES
The SPCZ stretches from PNG across Solomons to Samoa and fades further east.
A trough in the Coral Sea is expected to deepen into a Low (L4) mid-week and
that then fades over New Caledonia by end of week. Avoid.
HIGHS and LOWS
HIGH H1 east of Aotearoa NZ expected to travel east-southeast from 35S to
40S.
A warm front is expected to travel south across Aotearoa NZ on Monday and
then a broad meridonal trough by midweek with lows L1 at 43S and L2 at 23S.
Low L1 expected to travel southeast across central Aotearoa NZ on Monday
followed by strong southerly flow on Tuesday with rough seas.
High H2 is expected to travel across the Tasman Sea on Wednesday followed by
L3 on Thursday and Friday, avoid.
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at bottom).
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Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212
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