Bob Blog 22Sep

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.

Compiled Sunday 4 September 2022
Monsoon 2022

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Gutteres said Pakistan's flooding, caused by
weeks of unprecedented monsoon rains and compounded by glacial meltwater
running down from the mountains, were a signal to the world to step up
action against climate change.

"Let's stop sleepwalking toward the destruction of our planet by climate
change,"
he said in a video message to an Islamabad ceremony launching the funding
appeal.

"Today, it's Pakistan.

"Tomorrow, it could be your country."

REVIEW OF THE LAST MONTH (August 2022)

MetService issue a tropical analysis of the South Pacific with isobars and
streamlines at www.metservice.com/warnings/tropical-cyclone-activity

I am now saving one image a day from this page and here is an animation of
last month's weather at this link: tinyurl.com/PacificAug2022

Between 15 and 20 August a strong "atmospheric river" brought flooding to
parts of Aotearoa NZ open to northerly winds, as a HIGH over 1040hPa south
of Tahiti stalled fronts in the Tasman Sea.

Sea Surface temperature anomalies from psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.shtml


The main pattern remains the same as in July with the coo waters f La Nina
along the EEP Eastern Equatorial Pacific surrounded by a C shaped zone of
warm waters

Average isobars for past month
The subtropical ridge in the northern hemisphere has weakened. Otherwise
there hasn't been much change.

Pressure anomolies for past month (below)
The lower pressure zone that was over Canada has shifted west into the north
Pacific. And the low zone that was over Australia has relaxed.A Higher than
normal pressure zone persists from south of Australia across NZ into the
Pacific, encouraging the southern hemisphere's subtropics .

Zooming into the NZ area
The subtropical ridge around NZ has shifted north, and intensified,
increasing the trade winds. High centres have intensified to over 1025 in
Indian and East South Pacific Ocean.


TROPICS

After a quiet August, things are ramping up in September with Danielle and
Earl in the North Atlantic, Javier west of Mexico and Hinnamnor still
affecting east of Asia.

WEATHER ZONES

The SPCZ stretches from PNG across Solomons to Samoa and fades further east
by southeast. A trough in the tropics is expected to visit New Caledonia on
Monday and get eats to south of Fiji/Tonga by mid-week followed by southerly
swells to 3m. Avoid.

HIGHS and LOWS

Low L1 in mid Tasman deepening to 988 over Northland by Monday night/Tuesday
while a cold southerly blast cover N, combining to produce up to 7m swells
on its backside. Avoid

The trough associated with L1 is expected to brew L2 to SE of Niue by
Thursday and then off to the southeast for a few days.

High H1 should spread into South Tasman Sea by Wednesday and across NZ on
Thursday then travel east along 45S and should be useful for sailing.

A trough following H1 is expected to cross the Tasman and NZ this
weekend/next Monday.

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If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
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at bottom).
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Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212
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