Bob Blog 16 Oct

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 16 October 2022

The waning moon of October---- its Palolo season again.
Palolo (in Fijian: Balolo) is the edible portion of a worm that grows in
shallow coral reefs.
The mating season of the palolo follows the lunar cycle - typically on the
seventh night after the October full moon (the one after the equinox)
Under this waning moon the palolo worm will detach its lower half, where its
reproductive organs are, and this "tail" floats to the surface of the water
and releases eggs or sperm in a mass synchronised spawning event spread by
this special tide.
This South Seas caviar tastes like a combo of abalone and oysters. It
deteriorates quickly in sunlight, so gatherers need to collect it in the
pre-dawn hours. "It's the early bird". Many social traditions are triggered
by this event
One of the traditional things triggered by the Palolo season is the annual
pondering about the coming cyclone season. In the island people try and link
what they can observe at this time with what might come in the next few
months. So, if it's a great mango season that may be taken as an indicator
of a possible nasty cyclone season.

This year the boffin at BoM (Australia's Bureau of meteorology) are saying
MORE
The full report is at www.bom.gov.au/climate/cyclones/australia/
They say this is linked to the current La Nina. And that the first cyclone
this season may be "early" and occur in November.
MetService NZ and Fiji Met Service issue the official cyclone warnings over
the South Pacific, and they have joined with NIWA of NZ to issue the
following maps.
The full report is at
niwa.co.nz/climate/southwest-pacific-tropical-cyclone-outlook/southwest-paci
fic-tropical-cyclone-outlook-october-2022
They also point the finger at La Nina, which typically shifts the
subtropical ridge southwards and thus shifts the cyclone risk westwards,
towards the Coral Sea.
They do note that this La Nina is expected to weaken and may be neutral late
in the season, and that can change things.
During the cyclone season there are usually quiet spells and then bursts of
energy. The Madden Julian Oscillation can help us identify the energy bursts
a week or more ahead, and I'll comment more on that in a few weeks,

TROPICS
The latest cyclone activity report is at zoom.earth and tropic.ssec.wisc.edu
and Tropical Cyclone Potential is from
www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html

Cyclone NESAT is approaching Vietnam and expected to peak on Tuesday.


WEATHER ZONES
The SPCZ stretches from PNG across Solomons to Vanuatu to north of Fiji.
This thins out then thickens into a convergnc3 zone hovering around the
Society islands.
A passing trough is expected to travel eastwards to south of Tonga by
mid-week

HIGHS and LOWS
High H1 east of Aotearoa NZ tonight is travelling away to the ENE.
A showery low L1 tonight in the Tasman Sea is expected to cross North
Island on Monday and wander off to the east connected to the trough south of
Tonga.
HIGH H2 is expected to travel east across the Tasman Sea and fade there late
in the week.
Low L3 is expected to travel late this week from south of NZ to east of NZ
bringing a cold southerly in its wake on Friday. Avoid.
Then High H3 is expected to travel east across the central Tasman Sea and
reach central and northern NZ for the long weekend.
H2 and H3 offer good opportunities for sailing from tropics to NZ and
Australia.
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If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212
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