Bob Blog 30 Oct

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 30 October 2022
The pre cyclone season migration can be seen on PredictWind/tools/AIS today
The climax of their voyage was the passing trough last night
As seen at www.meteo.nc/nouvelle-caledonie/observations/images-satellite
This trough has vented a lot of moisture from the South Pacific convergence
zone and has been built on the western should of a BFH (big fat High)
As seen on weather map from metservice.com
This relay of energy from the tropics to the mid-latitudes may have been
triggered or helped by a recent active part of the MJO into the Pacific,
albeit a weak one.

MJO stands for the Madden Julian Oscillation, a wave of extra energy in the
tropics that travels along equatorial latitudes from the Indian Ocean to the
Pacific Ocean. Each MJO takes around 30 to 60 days to make this trip, and
around a week to cross a region.
A good method to track the MJO is to watch the bubbly blue zones in an OLR
(out-going longwave radiation)map, as shown at
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/foregfs.shtml
This map shows a blue sone moving into the Coral sea in the last few days,
then forecast to fade.
It seems that this MJO might not trigger a tropical cyclone , and since they
are a month or more apart , we may be bold enough , perhaps, to suggest that
there may be no tropical cyclones in the South Pacific until the next MJO
in December. This shouldn't be taken as a forecast or outlook and has as
much merit as "reading tea leaves", so treat it with caution.
As we enter into the nominal start of the this new cyclone season on Tuesday
I shall mention the research predictions from the New Caledonian
meteorologist at www.meteo.nc/nouvelle-caledonie/cyclone/coin-des-experts

TROPICS
NALGAE travelled across the Philippines last week with a death toll of 72
from slips and flooding, see
www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/29/storm-nalgae-floods-and-landslides-in-
philippines-kill-at-least-72

WEATHER ZONES
SPCZ The South Pacific Convergence zone
The SPCZ is weak across the Solomon Islands and north of Vanuatu and active
in patches from Fiji to French Polynesia.
The patch over Fiji tonight is expected to weaken and the patch over
southern cooks may deepen into a low by end of the week. Avoid.
HIGHS and LOWS
HIGH H1 east of Aotearoa NZ is a BFH (Big Fat High) and should stay put all
week.
HIGH H2 in north Tasman Sea is expected to travel east along 30S and weaken.
Trough between H1 and H2 is on its western shoulder has been active with
lightning for the past day and is expected to travel slowly east being
pushed by H2.
Low L1 in Australian Bight is expected to travel east across South Tasman
Sea mid -week and across South Island by end of the week, preceded by a
vigorous NW to Westerly flow and followed by a southerly flow and H3 from
central Australia.
After that trough has cleared Fiji it should be Ok to set sail for NZ.
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If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212
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