Bob Blog 6 Nov

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 06 November 2022

REVIEW OF THE LAST MONTH (October 2022)
Sea Surface temperature anomalies from psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.shtml
The warm waters between New Guinea and the north of New Zealand have
intensified. Otherwise, the main pattern remains the same as in September
with the cool waters of La Nina along the Eastern Equatorial Pacific
surrounded by zones of warmer than normal conditions in the north and south
Pacific.

Average isobars for past month (below)

The Antarctic High has weakened considerably, weakening the southern polar
vortex. The Siberian high has intensified as has the Artic low increasing
the polar westerly winds over northern Europe.

Pressure anomolies for past month (below)

There has been a notable deepening of the lows over southern Australia which
has had a very wet October. Lowers pressure over the Arctic and higher
pressures over Asia and the Aleutians show there are strong westerly winds
over northern Europe.

Zooming into the NZ area
The 1015 Isobar has shifted southwards from Fiji to south of New Caledonia
and the subtropical ridge has moved off central Australia, indicating an
early trend to summer conditions.

TROPICS
Finally, a quiet week. There is a tropical depression in the south Indian
ocean well southwest of Jakarta, and another in the North Atlantic between
the Bahamas and Bermuda, but no named storms.

WEATHER ZONES
The SPCZ is increasing in activity and active from new Guinea to Vanuatu/New
Caledonia, with another convergence zone in an arc from Samoa to French
Polynesia.

Tropical Low L1 over Society Islands is traveling off to the southeast,
leaving behind a convergence zone that is expected to weaken and travel
north.

HIGHS and LOWS
HIGH H1 east of Aotearoa NZ is expected to travel steadily ENE, allowing Low
L# in the Southern Ocean to be drawn to the NE in the wake of H1.
HIGH H2 is expected to stall in the South Tasman Sea until mid-week as a
trough on the front end of L3 then travels northeast out of the Southern
Ocean bringing a southerly change to South Island. in north Tasman Sea is
expected to travel east along 30S and weaken.
This movement of H2 blocks L2 from travelling southeast so it is expected to
go south taking wind and swell with it.

This opens an avenue of light wind between Fiji and New Zealand, but within
this is a zone of squally NE winds and frontal zone associated with L2 .
AVOID.
This zone is expected to extend as far north as Minerva and reach there on
Thursday night (local). It should affect norther NZ on Friday and Friday
night and, finger's crossed, clear in time for the World Cup Rugby on
Saturday night.
AVOID arriving in NZ on Friday/Saturday 11/12 Nov and 18 to 21 Nov.

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