Bob Blog

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 4 December 2022

THE ISOBARS OF NOVEMBER

REVIEW OF THE LAST MONTH (November 2022)
Here is a link to a YouTube clip giving an animated loop of the isobars and
streamlines in the South pacific at youtu.be/qgPsVkd_U5U

Sea Surface temperature anomalies from psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.shtml
The main pattern remains the same as since winter with the cool waters of La
Nina along the Eastern Equatorial Pacific surrounded by zones of warmer than
normal conditions in the north and south Pacific. The hot area that was off
Japan has relaxed. The rains over eastern Australian have run off and
produced a cool pool in the western Tasman sea .

Average isobars for past month
The Antarctic High has continued to weaken and thereby weakening the
southern polar vortex. The Artic low has almost disappeared. The southern
Subtropical ridge has noticeably weakened , except in the South Atlantic.

Pressure anomolies for past month
The lows that started over south Australia is early spring extended to NZ by
late spring. Rising pressures over the Aleutians and Canada and another zone
over northwest Europe is making the northern hemisphere a 2-wave pattern.
The Southern hemisphere is clearly in a 3-wave mode.

Zooming into the NZ area
On the tropical side the 1010 has drifted south onto northern Australia,
typical of summer. However, on the southern side the 1010 has shifted north
from Campbell Island to Taupo, due to the numerous lows and lack of highs
travelling across the Tasman Sea. This is more like a spring pattern.

TROPICS
There are no named storms at present. There is a zone of potential
development north of New Guinea.

WEATHER ZONES
The SPCZ is active at present in the eastern Coral Sea/Vanuatu/ New
Caledonia area but this should clear off to the southeast . Convergence zone
has cleared off French Polynesia at present. A Convergence zone now near
Samoa is expected to drift southeast to Southern cooks.

HIGHS and LOWS
HIGH H1 over North Island is expected to travel off to the east along 35S,
with a squash zone on its northern side around 27S.
Low L1 south of NZ is expected to travel east along 50S.

Low L2 is forming west of New Caledonia and expected to travel SE and fade
near Northland on Wed/Thurs, followed by H2.

Low L3 is expected to travel slowly Se from Bass strait into the south
Tasman Sea by mid-week and then Northeast towards central NZ by end of week.
HIGH H3 should banana around south side of L3 and build east of the South
Island by end of the week.

Looking Ok to sail to NZ next ten days, just divert around the lows.

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