Bob Blog 25 Dec

Bob Blog 25 Dec 2022.
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 25 December 2022

FESTIVE GREETINGS EVERONE

Whilst the world media concentrate on the polar blast across North America
this Christmas
(www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/dec/21/us-winter-weather-storm-cold-snap).
.

Cyclone DARIAN was named last week and is still traveling SE across the
Indian Ocean to SW of Jakarta.
It did a loop and intensified to Cat 5 on the Australian scale and Cat 4 on
the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind system scale.

In the past few days another cyclone flared briefly. On Thursday it was
named ELLIE as Cat 1 off Darwin.
This reminded us of Cyclone TRACY that hit Darwin at Christmas 48 years ago
in 1974.
ELLIE made landfall as a Cat 1 system. It did NOT have enough time to grow
as much as TRACY over the open ocean,
however even as a CAT 1 system it has been very wet and did do some damage.

See
www.news.com.au/technology/environment/tropical-cyclone-ellie-declared-set-t
o-make-landfall-as-category-1-storm/news-story/b38bb5009b308ee695467dab2e002
16e
and
www.abc.net.au/news/2022-12-24/cyclone-ellie-displaces-homeless-residents/10
1806274
Ex-ELLIE moved inland on Christmas eve as seen at
www.bom.gov.au/australia/meteye/

In the map above there is a HIGH shown in the Aussie Bight, south of ELLIE.
This is travelling east and should build in the Tasman Sea on Boxing Day
making gusty NE winds for a quick start to this year's SYDNEY-HOBART yacht
race.
The tailenders are expected to encounter a passing trough on Wednesday
See
rolexsydneyhobart.com/news/2022/pre-race/2022-rolex-sydney-hobart-fleet-set-
for-downwind-start/
The tracker for the race is at www.rolexsydneyhobart.com/tracker/

MJO
The active part of the MJO is now travelling across Indonesia and north
Australia.
In the New Year there is an increasing chance of a cyclone forming in the
Coral sea area,

WEATHER ZONES
South Pacific Convergence Zone
The SPCZ is expected to have an active week across the Coral Sea to Fiji and
to the southeast.
A tropical low is expected to form in the Coral Sea by mid-week and then
travel SSW into the western Tasman Sea by end of the week.

HIGHS and LOWS
HIGH H1 building in Tasman Sea on Boxing Day and is then expected to travel
east across central Aotearoa NZ this week and then travel east along 40S.
After a month or so of passing troughs this is summer "coming at last" over
Kiwi land.

As usual this is a High between two lows.. L1 is expected to form between
Tonga and NZ on Boxing Day then travel southeast and peak in development
mid-week and then get steered to the SW as H1 travels east. Surfs up for
East coast North Island around New Years.
Low L2 is expected to form in the Coral Sea by mi- week and then travel
south towards Lord Howe by end of the week.
L2 may interfere with trans-Tasman sailing this week.

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If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
Weathergram with graphics is at metbob.wordpress.com (subscribe/unsubscribe
at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212
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