Bob Blog 8 Jan

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 8 Jan 2023

A NEW YEAR and MJO ARRIVES

Proving once again to be a reliable indicator for tropical action, the MJO
(Madden Julian Oscillation) arrived this week into the South Pacific.
The MJO is a boost of extra energy that travels from the Indian ocean to the
Pacific as shown in blue in the OLR anomolies seen at

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/foregfs.shtml

It is expected to reach a peak in our region this and next week then weaken.
It has triggered Cyclone HALE and is also expected to trigger a few more
lows in the tropics this week.

Cyclone HALE was named by Fiji Met Service when south of New Caledonia
earlier today and is seen here on windy.com

It is travelling east southeast and expected to bump into a HIGH that is now
travelling east along 45S past the South Island. This HIGH is expected to
knock the remains of HALE southwards towards Aotearoa / Bay of plenty , as
shown in a MetService forecast loaded to Facebook at
https://www.facebook.com/MetService/videos/933975564433795

TROPICS
HALE is Cat 1 off New Caledonia

WEATHER ZONES
South Pacific Convergence Zone SPCZ

The SPCZ is expected to be very active and somewhat erratic with tropical
lows L2 forming over Austral Islands, L3 south of Tonga, and late in the
week L4 near Fiji.

Lots to avoid.

HIGHS and LOWS

HIGH H1 is travelling east along 45S to east of the South Island.

HALE is expected to weaken a bit when it leaves the tropics and bumps into
H1. It is then expected to be steered southwards and may re-intensify when
it ingests some colder air over Aotearoa NZ on Wednesday. Avoid.

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If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
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at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212
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