Bob Blog 1 jan 2023

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 1 Jan 2023

REVIEW OF THE LAST MONTH (December 2022)

Here is a link to a YouTube clip giving an animated loop of the isobars and
streamlines in the South pacific at youtu.be/aiRKyR3gUv0

Lots of lows formed in the Tasman Sea. And Highs lingers south of Tahiti.
The cool waters of La Nina are relaxing. Warm zones are in the far northern
Pacific and central southern Pacific remain much the same. Waters around New
Zealand have noticeably warmed.
Average isobars for past month: The Siberian High has intensified and so
has a High over the arctic
- the source of a recent polar outbreak over northern America. In the
southern hemisphere the subtropical ridge has drifted south and remains much
the same intensity.
Pressure anomolies for past month: In the northern hemisphere there are low
breeding areas in the Pacific and the Atlantic.
The Southern hemisphere is clearly in a 3-wave mode.
Zooming into the NZ area: Summer has come at last: On the tropical side the
1010 has drifted south to the centre of Australia. And on the southern side
the 1010 has shifted north from Taupo to Campbell Island.

TROPICS
DARIAN grew to be Cat 5 in the Indian ocean last week and is now fading as
it travels off to the southeast.

MJO
The active part of the MJO is now travelling across Indonesia and north
Australia.
Although nothing is expected in the coming week, the potential for
development around northern Australia and the Coral Sea is now rising
steadily.

WEATHER ZONES
South Pacific Convergence zone SPCZ:
The SPCZ is expected to have an active week across the Coral Sea to Fiji and
from Samoa to Southern Cooks.
A tropical low is expected to form over northern Australia late this week.
Be aware.

HIGHS and LOWS
HIGH H1 which gave Aoteroa wonderful Christmas weather is now south of
Chathams is expected to slowly travel slowly northeast this week.
Sadly this brings a change of pattern back to "troughy "weather.
Low L1 is now just south of New Caledonia and its frontal rain band us
expected to travel south across New Zealand from Wednesday to Friday as the
low centre becomes complex and lingers in the Tasman Sea.
There may be OK weather after L1 for sailing east across the Tasman but take
care and be watchful for changing patterns.
Low L2 now over Tong is travelling southeast to Southern Cooks and Austral
Islands.

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If you would like more detail for your voyage, then check metbob.com to see
what I offer.
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at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or txt 64277762212
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