Bob Blog 1 Oct

Bob Blog 1 October
Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 1 Oct 2023

A review of last month's weather

Here is a link to a YouTube clip giving an animated loop of the isobars and
streamlines in the South Pacific for the last month at youtu.be/ryMmaz_BxdY

September was a month with several spring fronts across the Tasman Sea.
These fronts were more mobile than in July and August so brought no
lingering damage. Mobile HIGHS are now on the weather map crossing the north
Tasman Sea. In the last week of the month meteorologists conformed that
parameters are now at El Nino level, also a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (El
Nino's Indian Ocean cousin). These events combine to deprive rain over
Australia, especially SE Australia. This has already led to two brief heat
waves over SE Australia.
Sea Surface temperature anomalies from psl.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.shtml

In the Sea temperature anomalies, there is a build -p of high temps south of
Tahiti. And the warm conditions that were near the west coast of North
America have shifted westwards.

In the Northern Hemisphere winter HIGH over northern Europe has built
quickly indicating strong autumn conditions. In the Southern Hemisphere, the
subtropical ridges are slowly

Isobars are getting higher over Australia /NE/and further east. There is
also higher pressure building over eastern Canada. Lower pressures over
southern Indian ocean.

There is a widening of the subtropical ridge over NZ. A slight southward
shift. Slightly more westerly gradient over NZ,

TROPICS
Storm surge for weakening OPHELIA flooded parts of North Carolina. NIGEL
faded on its way to Europe and is followed by PHILLIPE and RINA. KOINUI is
skirting past north of Philippines.

The MJO, a burst of extra energy in the tropics, is weakly crossing New
Guinea

WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is expected to stay north from Solomons
to northern Vanuatu to Samoa/Northern Tonga. There is expected to be a
passing trough over Southern Cooks and Austral Islands after mid-week. Be
Aware.

HIGH H1 north of NZ tonight is moving steadily along 30S with a small squash
zone and a burst of southerly swell on its northern side.

Trough associated with Low L1 is crossing NZ on Monday followed by cold
Southerly winds on Tuesday.

HIGH H2 is expected to travel NE across the Tasman Sea and linger around
northern NZ on Thursday and Friday.

Trough associated t=with L2 is expected to reach from New Caledonia to New
Zealand by Saturday, affecting anyone sailing across North Tasman Sea this
week.

Tropics to NZ: avoid arriving in NZ on Sun 8 October.

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If you would like more details about your voyage, then check metbob.com to
see what I offer.
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at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
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