Bob Blog 29 Oct

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 29 Oct 2023

LOLA's rejuvenation

An outbreak of cold air from the Southern Ocean washed over NZ during the
past week and then, over the weekend, met with the remains of LOLA in the
north Tasman Sea

The central pressure of the system dropped from 1008 to 994 in 24 hours, a
drop of 14 hPa near 30S.
This was caused by the extreme temperature/density difference between the
air for the north and the air from the South. The process is called rapid
cyclogenesis. This is why one of the rules for sailing from Fiji to New
Zealand is "Do not go south with a falling barometer."

TROPICS
TAMMY is now in the North Atlantic after soaking the NE Caribbean, and the
depression 19-E is off the west of Mexico.
Last week LOLA was briefly Cat5 near Pentecost Island. OTIS was briefly Cat
5 near Acapulco. HARMOON caused a quarter of million people to evacuate
into shelters in southern Bangladesh. NORMA is near Baja California and
TAMMY is near the Caribbean. TEJ I flooded pasts of Yemen.

Meteorologists were slammed in the media for the jump to Category 5 by OTIS
See tinyurl.com/CycloneOtis
This idea of shooting the messenger in the media and slamming forecasters
seems to be becoming a trend. MetService issued a review of its performance
in a few major events in NZ last summer see tinyurl.com/MetServiceGabrielle
. One thing the media have not been reporting is that although the computer
models sometimes behave poorly, manual forecasters manage to add value by
issuing warnings that work in saving lives. Insurance companies have noted
that even though the amount of weather damage they have to pay out for is
rising with climate change, the death toll from weather is falling.

WEATHER ZONES

The South Pacific Convergence zone is expected to stay from Solomons to
Samoa. A trough is expected to cross the Minerva area on local Tuesday
followed by a lull.
HIGHS and LOWS
HIGH H1 crossing southern NZ tonight is moving off to the east along 40S.
LOW L1 is travelling southeast and sideswiping the northeast of North Island
on Monday then fading away, leaving behind a lull.
There is a strong squash zone between H1 and L1. Avoid.
LOW L2 is expected to form in central Tasman Sea by mid-week and then fade
across central NZ by the weekend, followed by a SW flow.
The scene is set for southerly winds over northern NZ from 6 to 9 Nov
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If you would like more details about your voyage, then check metbob.com to
see what I offer.
Or Facebook at /www.facebook.com/metbobnz/
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at bottom).
Weathergram archive (with translator) is at weathergram.blogspot.co.nz.
Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
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