Bob blog

McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.

Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.

Compiled Sunday 12 November 2023

The November Migration
A snapshot of marine traffic mid last week shows that the November migration
of cruising yachts (coloured orange here) is in full swing. 1 November is
nominally the start of the cyclone season, and yachts are exiting the
tropics. Some are heading for Australia, and many seem lined up for New
Zealand

I've chosen this week to also do a road-trip /migration and will be visiting
Northland. I shall be visiting the Opua Cruising club for dinner on
Wednesday and Thursday evening. I invite any one in this migration who has
recently arrived in Opua to have a chat.

And the migration seems to be timely. There was a equatorial westerly last
week and it is helping to form a twin of spinning spirals neat 150 to 180:

The spinning thunderstorms near 10S 170E have now developed into tropical
depression 91P/02F

The models still are differing about over the future of this system.

I find that good reading of it potential impact is available from the wind
accumulation map selection on windy.com .

The latest OFFICIAL information is issued by Fiji Met Service in their
tropical disturbance notice at www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/20032.txt

TROPICS

Apart form the Depression NW of Fiji, there are also others being watched on
the northern side of the equator that were triggered by that equatorial
westerly.
The MJO, a burst of extra energy in the tropics, is now over the western
Pacific for the next few weeks.

WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is mainly mixed in with clouds of the
forming Tropical cyclone. The path of the gales is across Fiji mainly on
Tuesday /Wednesday and Minerva on Thursday. Avoid. Those travelling south to
NZ should target to get south of 28S by Thursday.

HIGHS and LOWS
HIGH H1 is travelling east along 35S. There is a squash zone of enhanced
trade winds on its northern side and this seems to be weakening.

There is a trough between Tonga and NZ. Low L1 should form in this trough
near 30S 180 tonight and travel SE this week Combined with a front crossing
NZ on Tuesday this is expected to maintain a southerly flow from NZ to as
far north as 30S until Wednesday.

A front over SW of NZ on Monday is likely to stall, bringing extreme rain.

The next trough and low is expected to cross Tasman Sea and South Island on
Thursday and then stall over North Island on Friday and the weekend.

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If you would like more details about your voyage, then check metbob.com to
see what I offer.
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Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
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