Bob Blog 5 Nov

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 5November 2023

A review of last month's weather
Here is a link to a YouTube clip giving an animated loop of the isobars and
streamlines in the South Pacific for the last month at youtu.be/z6UHHEhr8Tc

During October the mid-latitudes were a true mix of intrusions form tropics
and polar regions. As is normal in Sprin. This year the sea over the central
equatorial Pacific were warmer than normal and Cyclone LOLA was produced,
briefly Cat 5 near Pentecost Island, The Low rejuvenated when it met cold
southerly winds in the Tasman Sea and brough wet windy conditions to norther
North Island a few days after the COASTAL CLASSIC

At about the same time Cyclone OTIS burst to Cat % as it moved onto
Acapulco:
I can't remember any month in the recent path with two Cat 5 cyclones almost
at the same time in different hemisphere.

Seasonal changes are observable: In the Northern Hemisphere the winter HIGH
has developed over much of Europe. In the Southern Hemisphere, the
subtropical ridge is shifting slowly south.

Pressure anomalies for past month
Shows falling pressures over Russia and rising pressures over the roaring
40s in the Southern Hemisphere.
A detail of interest is that LOLA's rejuvenation in the Tasman Sea has
impacted the anomaly map.
Isobars are getting higher over Australia /NE/and further east. There is
also higher pressure building over eastern Canada. Lower pressures over
southern Indian ocean.

Zooming into the NZ area
The isobars north and south of New Zealand haven't changed much, and
overall, the 1020 isobar covers a smaller area. However, there is a new 1025
isobar west of Perth.

TROPICS
PILAR crossed El Salvidor with downpours and is now travelling NW across the
Paciifc
The MJO, a burst of extra energy in the tropics, is expected to enter the
western Pacific over next few weeks.

WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is building between Solomons and Samoa.
There is expected to be a weak passing trough over Tahiti area next weekend.

Topical Low L2 is expected to form between Fiji and Samoa from mid-week and
then creep slowly westwards towards Solomons next week. Avoid.
HIGH H1 east of NZ is acting as a block.
There is a trough between Tonga and NZ. Low L1 should form in this trough
near 30S 180 tonight and travel SE this week Combined with a front crossing
NZ on Tuesday this is expected to maintain a southerly flow from NZ to as
far north as 30S until Wednesday.
HIGH H2 is expected to spread from south of Tasmania to mid Tasman Sea by
mid-week and then travel NE onto northern NZ.
Between H2 and L2 a squash zone of enhanced easterly winds and large swell
is expected to form from Thursday around 15 to 20S.
For arriving in NZ: Light winds this weekend, then a minor front likely
around Tue 14 Nov, then a few good days with westerly winds.

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If you would like more details about your voyage, then check metbob.com to
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Contact is bob@metbob.com or text 64277762212.
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