Bobgram 10 Dec

Bob McDavitt's ideas for sailing around the South Pacific.
Disclaimer: Weather is a mix of pattern and chaos; these ideas are from the
patterned world.
Compiled Sunday 10 December 2023

2023 Ozone layer

During November, instead of doing it normal seasonal decay, the Ozone hole
area remained much the same, so that in early December it has been breaking
the December record.
The Antarctic ozone hole has been slow to fill in over recent years as
measured by atmosphere.copernicus.eu.
Some expect this may be related to global warming, which tends to cool
stratospheric temperatures and changes stratospheric chemistry and dynamics.
Ozone depletion is also believed to be influenced by greenhouse gas
emissions, volcanic and wildfires aerosols or even changes in the solar
cycle.
Another possibility for this year's weird behaviour is due to a residual of
water vapour in the stratosphere left over from last year's Hunga Tonga
-Hunga Ha'apai volcanic eruption.
Whatever the cause, these measurements are concerning.

TROPICS
JASPER formed over the Solomon Islands and is moving slowly westwards across
the Coral Sea and intensifying. It is expected to make landfall near
(probably north of) Cairns on Wednesday. Avoid.
The MJO, a burst of extra energy in the tropics, is expected to peak over
the Pacific Ocean in the next two weeks.

WEATHER ZONES
The South Pacific Convergence zone is strong from Solomon Islands to Samoa
to Tahiti.
JASPER is travelling westwards across the Coral Sea. A Low /trough L1 over
Tonga is expected to travel off to the south by mid-week a d another L2 near
Niue is expected to deepen the weekend and go south early next week. Avoid.
HIGHS and LOWS
Lows are expected to travel quickly across southern and eastern NZ: one on
Monday and another on Thursday, followed by large southerly swells in the
eastern Tasman Sea.
HIGH H1 in Tasman Sea by mid-weak is expected to cross northern NZ on
Thursday and Friday.
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